CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract: CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL

Emission Factors from Aerial and Ground Measurements of Field and Laboratory Forest Burns in the Southeastern U.S.: PM_2.5, Black and Brown Carbon, VOC, and PCDD/PCDF

Aerial- and ground-sampled emissions from three prescribed forest burns in the southeastern U.S. were compared to emissions from laboratory open burn tests using biomass from the same locations. A comprehensive array of emissions, including PM_2.5, black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC), carbon dioxide (CO₂), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and polychlorinated dibenzo-<i>p</i>-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were sampled using ground-based and aerostat-lofted platforms for determination of emission factors. The PM_2.5 emission factors ranged from 14 to 47 g/kg biomass, up to three times higher than previously published studies. The biomass type was the primary determinant of PM_2.5, rather than whether the emission sample was gathered from the laboratory or the field and from aerial- or ground-based sampling. The BC and BrC emission factors ranged from 1.2 to 2.1 g/kg biomass and 1.0 to 1.4 g/kg biomass, respectively. A decrease in BC and BrC emission factors with decreased combustion efficiency was found from both field and laboratory data. VOC emission factors increased with decreased combustion efficiency. No apparent differences in averaged emission factors were observed between the field and laboratory for BC, BrC, and VOCs. The average PCDD/PCDF emission factors ranged from 0.06 to 4.6 ng TEQ/kg biomass