foresight for crisis prevention

As part of their efforts to professionalize crisis and conflict prevention, foreign policy-makers are investing more in foresight, early warning or prediction. Different approaches and their products are suited for different purposes, based on distinct strengths and weaknesses. This policy paper provides an overview of the most common methods used in the context of preventing violent conflict and governance breakdown, and offers guidance on what to look out for when thinking about and planning for the future of crisis prevention

Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options

How to Hire for Diversity and Inclusion: Suggestions for German Think Tanks and Foundations

This guide aims to provide suggestions and inspiration for more inclusive hiring practices in think tanks and foundations based on a qualitative lived-experiences approach. While diversity encompasses various dimensions and nuances, we focus in this text on young research professionals with migratory backgrounds as the main target group. However, some suggestions might be adaptable to different contexts or other groups. Our recommendations are directed at think tanks and foundations that want to become more inclusive workplaces. This guide covers the job posting process, candidate screening, interviewing, and the onboarding phase. Our propositions for enhancing inclusive hiring efforts are grounded in the lived experiences of the authors and on interviews with research professionals working in think tanks and foundations in Germany, some of whom have faced hurdles linked to their background or are engaged in creating diversity policies and designing hiring processes. With this guide we want to contribute to the broader discussion of diversity and inclusion in research institutes and foundations. We hope to stimulate further exchanges and help ensure ongoing diversity policies are grounded in lived experiences

Parental help-seeking behaviour for, and care of, a sick or injured child during the COVID-19 pandemic: a European online survey

BACKGROUND: Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic had a huge impact on patients and healthcare systems. A decline in paediatric visits to healthcare settings was observed, which might have been due to lower incidence of injury and infectious illness, changes in healthcare services and parental concern. The aim of our study was to examine parental experiences of help-seeking for, and care of, a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdown periods in five European countries with different healthcare systems in place. METHODS: An online survey for parents with a child with any kind or illness of injury during COVID-19 lockdowns was circulated through social media in five European countries: Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Parents living in one of these countries with self-identification of a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdown periods were eligible to fill in the survey. Descriptive statistics were used for the level of restrictions per country, children's characteristics, family characteristics and reported help-seeking behaviour of parents prior to the lockdown and their real experience during the lockdown. The free text data was subjected to thematic analysis. RESULTS: The survey was fully completed by 598 parents, ranging from 50 to 198 parents per country, during varying lockdown periods from March 2020 until May 2022. Parents who completed the survey were not deterred from seeking medical help for their sick or injured child during the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding was comparable in five European countries with different healthcare systems in place. Thematic analysis identified three main areas: parental experiences of access to healthcare, changes in parents' help-seeking behaviours for a sick or injured child during lockdowns, and the impact of caring for a sick or injured child during the lockdowns. Parents reported limited access to non-urgent care services and were anxious about either their child or themselves catching COVID-19. CONCLUSION: This insight into parental perspectives of help-seeking behaviour and care for a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdowns could inform future strategies to improve access to healthcare, and to provide parents with adequate information concerning when and where to seek help and support during pandemics

Traumatic brain injury in young children with isolated scalp haematoma

Objective Despite high-quality paediatric head trauma clinical prediction rules, the management of otherwise asymptomatic young children with scalp haematomas (SH) can be difficult. We determined the risk of intracranial injury when SH is the only predictor variable using definitions from the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) and Children’s Head Injury Algorithm for the Prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) head trauma rules.Design Planned secondary analysis of a multicentre prospective observational study.Setting Ten emergency departments in Australia and New Zealand.Patients Children 5 cm haematoma in any region of the head) rule-based definition of isolated SH in both childre

Pulmonary Adenocarcinoma in Dogs: Surgical Treatment with Real-Time Video-thermometry

Introdução :  Uma neoplasia pulmonar é uma proliferação anormal de células no tecido pulmonar, podendo ser classificada como primária, secundária ou metastática e multissistêmica. No entanto, uma neoplasia primária é rara em canídeos. Além disso, as neoplasias podem ser classificadas de acordo com seu comportamento biológico como malignas ou benignas. Os tumores malignos são mais prevalentes. O diagnóstico pode ser difícil devido a sintomas inespecíficos, tendo em vista que alguns pacientes afetados não apresentam nenhum sintoma; assim, um real da doença pode permanecer sem diagnóstico em certas ocasiões.Portanto, objetivamos relatar um caso de sucesso inédito de cirurgia de lobectomia pulmonar em cães com auxílio de videotermometria infravermelha, que mostrada como imagens em tempo real durante o procedimento cirúrgico.Caso : Um cão macho de 10 anos, mestiço com Cocker Spaniel, foi atendido com história de letargia, embotamento, perda progressiva de peso, tosse e dificuldade respiratória. Avaliação à gravidade dos sinais clínicos e ao exame clínico fisiológico normal, foram solicitados exames complementares, como radiografia da região cervical e torácica, tomografia computadorizada de sangue e toracoabdominal (TCT). Os resultados dos exames obtiveram a presença de massa nodular no lobo pulmonar direito caudal que ocasionava desvio lateral para hemitórax esquerdo da silhueta cardíaca. A paciente foi submetida a um procedimento cirúrgico com abordagem pela região torácica, na altura do sétimo espaço intercostal, sendo realizada lobectomia total. Durante todo o procedimento cirúrgico,A videotermometria em tempo real por meio da estação MART (Atividade Metabólica em Tempo Real FLIR SC325®) foi utilizada para determinar a viabilidade dos tecidos adjacentes por meio de diferenças de temperatura medidas em graus Celsius. O fragmento cirúrgico contendo o lobo pulmonar caudal direto e a massa foi encaminhado ao setor de patologia para avaliação anatomopatológica. Abundante proliferação epitelial papilar foi visualizada ao microscópio, apresentando áreas de necrose e infiltrado polimorfonuclear inflamatório. O nódulo foi diagnosticado como adenocarcinoma papilar de pulmão. O fragmento cirúrgico contendo o lobo pulmonar caudal direto e a massa foi encaminhado ao setor de patologia para avaliação anatomopatológica. Abundante proliferação epitelial papilar foi visualizada ao microscópio, apresentando áreas de necrose e infiltrado polimorfonuclear inflamatório. O nódulo foi diagnosticado como adenocarcinoma papilar de pulmão. O fragmento cirúrgico contendo o lobo pulmonar caudal direto e a massa foi encaminhado ao setor de patologia para avaliação anatomopatológica. Abundante proliferação epitelial papilar foi visualizada ao microscópio, apresentando áreas de necrose e infiltrado polimorfonuclear inflamatório. O nódulo foi diagnosticado como adenocarcinoma papilar de pulmão.Discussão :Os adenocarcinomas consistem em estruturas glandulares papilares, acinares, sólidas ou mistas. Podem originar-se das vias aéreas, glândulas brônquicas ou região broncoalveolar e, freqüentemente, apresentam crescimento invasivo apresentando formato rudimentar e irregular. Os sinais clínicos são inespecíficos, incluindo intolerância a exercícios, tosse não produtiva, sinais respiratórios crônicos como taquipneia ou dispneia, apetite reduzido, perda de peso, letargia, dor à palpação torácica, hemotórax, pneumotórax e derrame pleural. O diagnóstico é concluído por meio de exames de diagnóstico por imagem, sendo a radiografia de tórax o mais importante, seguida da ressonância magnética e da tomografia computadorizada. Além disso, o exame histopatológico é essencial para determinar um diagnóstico definitivo. O tratamento de escolha para os nódulos de adenocarcinoma é a excisão cirúrgica da massa tumoral. Contudo, o tipo de abordagem cirúrgica é determinado por diferentes fatores, como tamanho, localização e envolvimento de estruturas adjacentes. A ablação de massas pulmonares pode ser realizada por meio de lobectomias parciais ou totais. No entanto, a lobectomia parcial é mais frequentemente realizada em massas não neoplásicas ou para obtenção de material para biópsia, enquanto a lobectomia total é recomendada para a remoção de uma neoplasia maligna.O prognóstico é sempre cauteloso, tendo um desfecho mais favorável nas massas de menor diâmetro sem o envolvimento de estruturas adjacentes

Parental help-seeking behaviour for, and care of, a sick or injured child during the COVID-19 pandemic: a European online survey

Background Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic had a huge impact on patients and healthcare systems. A decline in paediatric visits to healthcare settings was observed, which might have been due to lower incidence of injury and infectious illness, changes in healthcare services and parental concern. The aim of our study was to examine parental experiences of help-seeking for, and care of, a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdown periods in five European countries with different healthcare systems in place. Methods An online survey for parents with a child with any kind or illness of injury during COVID-19 lockdowns was circulated through social media in five European countries: Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Parents living in one of these countries with self-identification of a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdown periods were eligible to fill in the survey. Descriptive statistics were used for the level of restrictions per country, children’s characteristics, family characteristics and reported help-seeking behaviour of parents prior to the lockdown and their real experience during the lockdown. The free text data was subjected to thematic analysis. Results The survey was fully completed by 598 parents, ranging from 50 to 198 parents per country, during varying lockdown periods from March 2020 until May 2022. Parents who completed the survey were not deterred from seeking medical help for their sick or injured child during the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding was comparable in five European countries with different healthcare systems in place. Thematic analysis identified three main areas: parental experiences of access to healthcare, changes in parents’ help-seeking behaviours for a sick or injured child during lockdowns, and the impact of caring for a sick or injured child during the lockdowns. Parents reported limited access to non-urgent care services and were anxious about either their child or themselves catching COVID-19. Conclusion This insight into parental perspectives of help-seeking behaviour and care for a sick or injured child during COVID-19 lockdowns could inform future strategies to improve access to healthcare, and to provide parents with adequate information concerning when and where to seek help and support during pandemics

Accuracy of PECARN, CATCH, and CHALICE head injury decision rules in children: a prospective cohort study

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Background Clinical decision rules can help to determine the need for CT imaging in children with head injuries. We aimed to validate three clinical decision rules (PECARN, CATCH, and CHALICE) in a large sample of children. Methods In this prospective observational study, we included children and adolescents (age

External validation of the Scandinavian guidelines for management of minimal, mild and moderate head injuries in children

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Clinical decision rules (CDRs) aid in the management of children with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Recently, the Scandinavian Neurotrauma Committee (SNC) has published practical, evidence-based guidelines for children with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores of 9-15. This study aims to validate these guidelines and to compare them with other CDRs. Methods: A large prospective cohort of children (< 18 years) with TBI of all severities, from ten Australian and New Zealand hospitals, was used to assess the SNC guidelines. Firstly, a validation study was performed according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the SNC guideline. Secondly, we compared the accuracy of SNC, CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN CDRs in patients with GCS 13-15 only. Diagnostic accuracy was calculated for outcome measures of need for neurosurgery, clinically important TBI (ciTBI) and brain injury on CT. Results: The SNC guideline could be applied to 19,007/20,137 of patients (94.4%) in the validation process. The frequency of ciTBI decreased significantly with stratification by decreasing risk according to the SNC guideline. Sensitivities for the detection of neurosurgery, ciTBI and brain injury on CT were 100.0% (95% CI 89.1-100.0; 32/32), 97.8% (94.5-99.4; 179/183) and 95% (95% CI 91.6-97.2; 262/276), respectively, with a CT/admission rate of 42% (mandatory CT rate of 5%, 18% CT or admission and 19% only admission). Four patients with ciTBI were missed; none needed specific intervention. In the homogenous comparison cohort of 18,913 children, the SNC guideline performed similar to the PECARN CDR, when compared with the other CDRs. Conclusion: The SNC guideline showed a high accuracy in a large external validation cohort and compares well with published CDRs for the management of paediatric TBI

Incidence of traumatic brain injuries in head‐injured children with seizures

Objective: Incidence and short‐term outcomes of clinically important traumatic brain injury (ciTBI) in head‐injured children presenting to ED with post‐traumatic seizure (PTS) is not described in current literature. Methods: Planned secondary analysis of a prospective observational study undertaken in 10 Australasian Paediatric Research in Emergency Department International Collaborative (PREDICT) network EDs between 2011 and 2014 of head‐injured children 24 h (9 [2.7%] AR 2.5 [95% CI 0.8–4.2]) and neurosurgery (8 [2.4%] AR 2.0 [95% CI 0.4–3.7]), were higher than those without PTS. Children with PTS and GCS 15 or 14 had no neurosurgery, intubations or death, with two deaths in children with PTS and GCS ≤13. Conclusions: PTS was uncommon in head‐injured children presenting to the ED but associated with an increased risk of ciTBI in those with reduced GCS on arrival