Cloud optical thickness and liquid water path – does the <i>k</i> coefficient vary with droplet concentration?

Cloud radiative transfer calculations in general circulation models involve a link between cloud microphysical and optical properties. Indeed, the liquid water content expresses as a function of the mean volume droplet radius, while the light extinction is a function of their mean surface radius. There is a small difference between these two parameters because of the droplet spectrum width. This issue has been addressed by introducing an empirical multiplying correction factor to the droplet concentration. Analysis of in situ sampled data, however, revealed that the correction factor decreases when the concentration increases, hence partially mitigating the aerosol indirect effect. <br><br> Five field experiments are reanalyzed here, in which standard and upgraded versions of the droplet spectrometer were used to document shallow cumulus and stratocumulus topped boundary layers. They suggest that the standard probe noticeably underestimates the correction factor compared to the upgraded versions. The analysis is further refined to demonstrate that the value of the correction factor derived by averaging values calculated locally along the flight path overestimates the value derived from liquid water path and optical thickness of a cloudy column, and that there is no detectable relationship between the correction factor and the droplet concentration. It is also shown that the droplet concentration dilution by entrainment-mixing after CCN activation is significantly stronger in shallow cumuli than in stratocumulus layers. These various effects are finally combined to produce the today best estimate of the correction factor to use in general circulation models

The Impatient May Use Limited Optimism to Minimize Regret

Discounted-sum games provide a formal model for the study of reinforcement learning, where the agent is enticed to get rewards early since later rewards are discounted. When the agent interacts with the environment, she may regret her actions, realizing that a previous choice was suboptimal given the behavior of the environment. The main contribution of this paper is a PSPACE algorithm for computing the minimum possible regret of a given game. To this end, several results of independent interest are shown. (1) We identify a class of regret-minimizing and admissible strategies that first assume that the environment is collaborating, then assume it is adversarial---the precise timing of the switch is key here. (2) Disregarding the computational cost of numerical analysis, we provide an NP algorithm that checks that the regret entailed by a given time-switching strategy exceeds a given value. (3) We show that determining whether a strategy minimizes regret is decidable in PSPACE

Equilibria-based Probabilistic Model Checking for Concurrent Stochastic Games

Probabilistic model checking for stochastic games enables formal verification of systems that comprise competing or collaborating entities operating in a stochastic environment. Despite good progress in the area, existing approaches focus on zero-sum goals and cannot reason about scenarios where entities are endowed with different objectives. In this paper, we propose probabilistic model checking techniques for concurrent stochastic games based on Nash equilibria. We extend the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic alternating-time temporal logic with rewards) to allow reasoning about players with distinct quantitative goals, which capture either the probability of an event occurring or a reward measure. We present algorithms to synthesise strategies that are subgame perfect social welfare optimal Nash equilibria, i.e., where there is no incentive for any players to unilaterally change their strategy in any state of the game, whilst the combined probabilities or rewards are maximised. We implement our techniques in the PRISM-games tool and apply them to several case studies, including network protocols and robot navigation, showing the benefits compared to existing approaches

Observational evidence of a change in radiative forcing due to the indirect aerosol effect

Anthropogenic aerosols enhance cloud reflectivity by increasing the number concentration of cloud droplets, leading to a cooling effect on climate known as the indirect aerosol effect. Observational support for this effect is based mainly on evidence that aerosol number concentrations are connected with droplet concentrations, but it has been difficult to determine the impact of these indirect effects on radiative forcing(1-3). Here we provide observational evidence for a substantial alteration of radiative fluxes due to the indirect aerosol effect. We examine the effect of aerosols on cloud optical properties using measurements of aerosol and cloud properties at two North American sites that span polluted and clean conditions-a continental site in Oklahoma with high aerosol concentrations, and an Arctic site in Alaska with low aerosol concentrations. We determine the cloud optical depth required to fit the observed shortwave downward surface radiation. We then use a cloud parcel model to simulate the cloud optical depth from observed aerosol properties due to the indirect aerosol effect. From the good agreement between the simulated indirect aerosol effect and observed surface radiation, we conclude that the indirect aerosol effect has a significant influence on radiative fluxes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62920/1/nature02234.pd

Toward Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions using Seismic Noise

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to measure relative seismic velocity variations of less than 0.1 % with a temporal resolution of one day. Our results show that five studied volcanic eruptions were preceded by clearly detectable seismic velocity decreases within the zone of magma injection. These precursors reflect the edifice dilatation induced by magma pressurization and can be useful indicators to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions.Comment: Supplementary information: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguier_SI.pdf Supplementary video: http://www-lgit.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr/~fbrengui/brenguierMovieVolcano.av

Automated verification of concurrent stochastic games

We present automatic verifcation techniques for concurrent stochastic multi-player games (CSGs) with rewards. To express properties of such models, we adapt the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic alternating-time temporal logic with rewards), originally introduced for the simpler model of turn-based games, which enables quantitative reasoning about the ability of coalitions of players to achieve goals related to the probability of an event or reward measures. We propose and implement a modelling approach and model checking algorithms for property verifcation and strategy synthesis of CSGs, as an extension of PRISMgames. We evaluate the performance, scalability and applicability of our techniques on case studies from domains such as security, networks and finance, showing that we can analyse systems with probabilistic, cooperative and competitive behaviour between concurrent components, including many scenarios that cannot be analysed with turn-based models

Semi-classical analysis and passive imaging

Passive imaging is a new technique which has been proved to be very efficient, for example in seismology: the correlation of the noisy fields, computed from the fields recorded at different points, is strongly related to the Green function of the wave propagation. The aim of this paper is to provide a mathematical context for this approach and to show, in particular, how the methods of semi-classical analysis can be be used in order to find the asymptotic behaviour of the correlations.Comment: Invited paper to appear in NONLINEARITY; Accepted Revised versio

Equilibria-based probabilistic model checking for concurrent stochastic games

Probabilistic model checking for stochastic games enables formal verification of systems that comprise competing or collaborating entities operating in a stochastic environment. Despite good progress in the area, existing approaches focus on zero-sum goals and cannot reason about scenarios where entities are endowed with different objectives. In this paper, we propose probabilistic model checking techniques for concurrent stochastic games based on Nash equilibria. We extend the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic alternating-time temporal logic with rewards) to allow reasoning about players with distinct quantitative goals, which capture either the probability of an event occurring or a reward measure. We present algorithms to synthesise strategies that are subgame perfect social welfare optimal Nash equilibria, i.e., where there is no incentive for any players to unilaterally change their strategy in any state of the game, whilst the combined probabilities or rewards are maximised. We implement our techniques in the PRISM-games tool and apply them to several case studies, including network protocols and robot navigation, showing the benefits compared to existing approaches

30 years in the life of an active submarine volcano: A time-lapse bathymetry study of the Kick-‘em-Jenny Volcano, Lesser Antilles

Effective monitoring is an essential part of identifying and mitigating volcanic hazards. In the submarine environment this is more difficult than onshore because observations are typically limited to land-based seismic networks and infrequent shipboard surveys. Since the first recorded eruption in 1939, the Kick-‘em-Jenny (KeJ) volcano, located 8km off northern Grenada, has been the source of 13 episodes of T-phase signals. These distinctive seismic signals, often coincident with heightened body-wave seismicity, are interpreted as extrusive eruptions. They have occurred with a recurrence interval of around a decade, yet direct confirmation of volcanism has been rare. By conducting new bathymetric surveys in 2016 and 2017 and reprocessing 4 legacy datasets spanning 30 years we present a clearer picture of the development of KeJ through time. Processed grids with a cell size of 5m and vertical precision on the order of 1-4m allow us to correlate T-phase episodes with morphological changes at the volcano's edifice. In the time-period of observation 7.09x106 m3 of material has been added through constructive volcanism – yet 5 times this amount has been lost through landslides. Limited recent magma production suggests that KeJ may be susceptible to larger eruptions with longer repeat times than have occurred during the study interval, behavior more similar to sub-aerial volcanism in the arc than previously thought. T-phase signals at KeJ have a varied origin and are unlikely to be solely the result of extrusive submarine eruptions. Our results confirm the value of repeat swath bathymetry surveys in assessing submarine volcanic hazards