Statistical Language Backs Conservatism in Climate-Change Assessments

The scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change is empirically settled, but communicating it to nonscientific audiences remains challenging. To be explicit about the state of knowledge on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted a vocabulary that ranks climate findings through certainty-calibrated qualifiers of confidence and likelihood. In this article, we quantified the occurrence of knowns and unknowns about “The Physical Science Basis” of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report by counting the frequency of calibrated qualifiers. We found that the tone of the IPCC's probabilistic language is remarkably conservative (mean confidence is medium, and mean likelihood is 66%–100% or 0–33%), and emanates from the IPCC recommendations themselves, complexity of climate research, and exposure to politically motivated debates. Leveraging communication of uncertainty with overwhelming scientific consensus about anthropogenic climate change should be one element of a wider reform, whereby the creation of an IPCC outreach working group could enhance the transmission of climate science to the panel's audiences.Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Corey J A Bradshaw, Stephan Lewandowsky, David R Vieite

Dismantling the poachernomics of the illegal wildlife trade

Persistent poaching fuelled by demand for elephant ivory and rhino horn continues to threaten these species. Despite international trade restrictions operating since the 1970s, limiting poaching has remained a substantial challenge over the last decade. The poaching economy of such storable goods is driven by a combination of persistent consumer demand and market speculation, and enabled by weak governance, lack of adequate resources for species protection, and alienation of local people who pay the costs of living alongside these species. We argue that restricting the legal supply of such wildlife products has created ideal conditions for the poaching economy - `poachernomics' - to thrive. Strategies that move toward empowering local communities with stronger property rights over wildlife and delivering more benefits to them, including via carefully regulated legal trade, are underused elements in the current fight against the onslaught of the international illegal wildlife trade.Peer reviewe

An incredible journey: the first people to arrive in Australia came in large numbers, and on purpose

The size of the first population of people needed to arrive, survive, and thrive in what is now Australia is revealed in two studies published today. It took more than 1,000 people to form a viable population. But this was no accidental migration, as our work shows the first arrivals must have been planned. Our data suggest the ancestors of the Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander, and Melanesian peoples first made it to Australia as part of an organised, technologically advanced migration to start a new life

Directionally supervised cellular automaton for the initial peopling of Sahul

Reconstructing the patterns of Homo sapiens expansion out of Africa and across the globe has been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. We combined movement ‘superhighways’ with a demographic cellular automaton to predict one of the world’s earliest peopling events — Sahul between 75,000–50,000 years ago. Novel outcomes from the superhighways weighted model include (i) an approximate doubling of the predicted time to continental saturation (~ 10,000 years) compared to that based on the directionally unsupervised model (~5,000 years), suggesting that rates of migration need to account for topographical constraints in addition to rate of saturation; (ii) a previously undetected movement corridor south through the centre of Sahul early in the expansion wave based on the scenarios assuming two dominant entry points into Sahul; and (iii) a better fit to the spatially de-biased, Signor-Lipps corrected layer of initial arrival inferred from dated archaeological material. Our combined model infrastructure provides a data-driven means to examine how people initially moved through, settled, and abandoned different regions of the globe

Effectiveness of five personal shark-bite deterrents for surfers

The number of shark-human interactions and shark bites per capita has been increasing since the 1980s, leading to a rise in measures developed to mitigate the risk of shark bites. Yet many of the products commercially available for personal protection have not been scientifically tested, potentially providing an exaggerated sense of security to the people using them. We tested five personal shark deterrents developed for surfers (Shark Shield Pty Ltd [Ocean Guardian] Freedom+ Surf, Rpela, SharkBanz bracelet, SharkBanz surf leash, and Chillax Wax) by comparing the percentage of baits taken, distance to the bait, number of passes, and whether a shark reaction could be observed. We did a total of 297 successful trials at the Neptune Islands Group Marine Park in South Australia, during which 44 different white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) interacted with the bait, making a total of 1413 passes. The effectiveness of the deterrents was variable, with the Freedom+ Surf affecting shark behaviour the most and reducing the percentage of bait taken from 96% (relative to the control board) to 40%. The mean distance of sharks to the board increased from 1.6 ± 0.1 m (control board) to 2.6 ± 0.1 m when the Freedom Surf+ was active. The other deterrents had limited or no measureable effect on white shark behavour. Based on our power analyses, the smallest effect size that could be reliably detected was ∼15%, which for the first time provides information about the effect size that a deterrent study like ours can reliably detect. Our study shows that deterrents based on similar principles—overwhelming a shark’s electroreceptors (the ampullae of Lorenzini) with electrical pulses—differ in their efficacy, reinforcing the need to test each product independently. Our results will allow private and government agencies and the public to make informed decisions about the use and suitability of these five products

Early human settlement of Sahul was not an accident

The first peopling of Sahul (Australia, New Guinea and the Aru Islands joined at lower sea levels) by anatomically modern humans required multiple maritime crossings through Wallacea, with at least one approaching 100 km. Whether these crossings were accidental or intentional is unknown. Using coastal-viewshed analysis and ocean drift modelling combined with population projections, we show that the probability of randomly reaching Sahul by any route is <5% until ≥40 adults are ‘washed off’ an island at least once every 20 years. We then demonstrate that choosing a time of departure and making minimal headway (0.5 knots) toward a destination greatly increases the likelihood of arrival. While drift modelling demonstrates the existence of ‘bottleneck’ crossings on all routes, arrival via New Guinea is more likely than via northwestern Australia. We conclude that anatomically modern humans had the capacity to plan and make open-sea voyages lasting several days by at least 50,000 years ago

Landscape rules predict optimal superhighways for the first peopling of Sahul

Archaeological data and demographic modelling suggest that the peopling of Sahul required substantial populations, occurred rapidly within a few thousand years and encompassed environments ranging from hyper-arid deserts to temperate uplands and tropical rainforests. How this migration occurred and how humans responded to the physical environments they encountered have, however, remained largely speculative. By constructing a high-resolution digital elevation model for Sahul and coupling it with fine-scale viewshed analysis of landscape prominence, least-cost pedestrian travel modelling and high-performance computing, we create over 125 billion potential migratory pathways, whereby the most parsimonious routes traversed emerge. Our analysis revealed several major pathways—superhighways—transecting the continent, that we evaluated using archaeological data. These results suggest that the earliest Australian ancestors adopted a set of fundamental rules shaped by physiological capacity, attraction to visually prominent landscape features and freshwater distribution to maximize survival, even without previous experience of the landscapes they encountered

Predictors of contraction and expansion of area of occupancy for British birds

Copyright © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal SocietyGeographical range dynamics are driven by the joint effects of abiotic factors, human ecosystem modifications, biotic interactions and the intrinsic organismal responses to these. However, the relative contribution of each component remains largely unknown. Here, we compare the contribution of life-history attributes, broad-scale gradients in climate and geographical context of species’ historical ranges, as predictors of recent changes in area of occupancy for 116 terrestrial British breeding birds (74 contractors, 42 expanders) between the early 1970s and late 1990s. Regional threat classifications demonstrated that the species of highest conservation concern showed both the largest contractions and the smallest expansions. Species responded differently to climate depending on geographical distribution—northern species changed their area of occupancy (expansion or contraction) more in warmer and drier regions, whereas southern species changed more in colder and wetter environments. Species with slow life history (larger body size) tended to have a lower probability of changing their area of occupancy than species with faster life history, whereas species with greater natal dispersal capacity resisted contraction and, counterintuitively, expansion. Higher geographical fragmentation of species' range also increased expansion probability, possibly indicating a release from a previously limiting condition, for example through agricultural abandonment since the 1970s. After accounting statistically for the complexity and nonlinearity of the data, our results demonstrate two key aspects of changing area of occupancy for British birds: (i) climate is the dominant driver of change, but direction of effect depends on geographical context, and (ii) all of our predictors generally had a similar effect regardless of the direction of the change (contraction versus expansion). Although we caution applying results from Britain's highly modified and well-studied bird community to other biogeographic regions, our results do indicate that a species' propensity to change area of occupancy over decadal scales can be explained partially by a combination of simple allometric predictors of life-history pace, average climate conditions and geographical context.Australian Research CouncilIntegrated Program of IC&DTFCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia

Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice during the last glacial

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 10,382–10,390, doi:10.1002/2015GL066344.North Atlantic late Pleistocene climate (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) was characterized by abrupt and extreme millennial duration oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. However, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 23,000 to 19,000 cal years ago (23 to 19 ka), no D-O events are observed in the Greenland ice cores. Our new analysis of the Greenland δ18O record reveals a switch in the stability of the climate system around 30 ka, suggesting that a critical threshold was passed. Climate system modeling suggests that low axial obliquity at this time caused vastly expanded sea ice in the Labrador Sea, shifting Northern Hemisphere westerly winds south and reducing the strength of meridional overturning circulation. The results suggest that these feedbacks tipped the climate system into full glacial conditions, leading to maximum continental ice growth during the LGM.Australian Research Council2016-06-1