Contemporary visions of progress in ecology and thoughts for the future

Although ecological research is progressing rapidly, the answers to certain key questions continue to elude us. This paper considers several of the contemporary challenges facing ecology. (1) Terminology is voluminous and often poorly defined, resulting in inefficient communication. (2) The concept of scale affects our inferences about system structure and function, requiring us to continue an almost heuristic investigation of breaks, domains, and integration. New tools that more explicitly incorporate scalar issues will need to be developed for progress to take place in the field of ecology. (3) Increasingly, it is expected that applied questions will be solved in less than a year. This demand for solutions from ecologists often produces short-term and inadequate responses. (4) How can ecologists improve communication between subdisciplines, with undergraduate students, and with the public? How will ecology be done in the future, and by whom? We provide some background to these observations and questions, and offer some potential solutions from the viewpoint of young practicing ecologists

Reducing falls in older adults recently discharged from hospital: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Older adults are known to have increased falls rates and functional decline following hospital discharge, with substantial economic healthcare costs. This systematic review aimed to synthesise the evidence for effective falls prevention interventions in older adults recently discharged from hospital. Methods: Literature searches of six databases of quantitative studies conducted from 1990 to June 2017, reporting falls outcomes of falls prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults discharged from hospital were included. Study quality was assessed using a standardised JBI critical appraisal tool (MAStARI) and data pooled using Rev-Man Review Manager® Results: Sixteen studies (total sample size N= 3,290, from eight countries, mean age 77) comprising 12 interventions met inclusion criteria. We found home hazard modification interventions delivered to those with a previous falls history (1 study), was effective in reducing the number of falls (RR 0.63, 95%CI 0.43, 0.93, Low GRADE evidence). Home exercise interventions (3 studies) significantly increased the proportion of fallers (OR 1.74, 95%CI 1.17, 2.60, Moderate GRADE evidence), and did not significantly reduce falls rate (RR 1.27, 95%CI 0.99, 1.62, Very Low GRADE evidence) or falls injury rate (RR1.16, 95%CI, 0.83,1.63, Low GRADE evidence). Nutritional supplementation for malnourished older adults (1 study) significantly reduced the proportion of fallers (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19, 0.86, Low GRADE evidence). Conclusion: The recommended falls prevention interventions for older adults recently discharged from hospital are to provide home hazard minimisation particularly if they have a recent previous falls history and consider nutritional supplementation if they are malnourished

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the$/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia:$1425, India: $1489, Vietnam:$1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from$237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to$749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to$241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Mediated Experiences: 1-7

We take this book forum as an opportunity to reflect on Science, Reason, Modernity: Readings for an Anthropology of the Contemporary through our experiences, exploring how these texts served as our tools, and to what end. We discuss a research methods seminar in which we traced one possible variation on the “genealogical line” and “pedagogical legacy” (p. 33) to which this reader is extended as an invitation. The spirit of that invitation is, in our understanding, not to a canon that would replace any number of others, but to a set of equipment

ASMBS Pediatric Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Guidelines, 2018

The American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Pediatric Committee updated their evidence-based guidelines published in 2012, performing a comprehensive literature search (2009-2017) with 1387 articles and other supporting evidence through February 2018. The significant increase in data supporting the use of metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) in adolescents since 2012 strengthens these guidelines from prior reports. Obesity is recognized as a disease; treatment of severe obesity requires a life-long multidisciplinary approach with combinations of lifestyle changes, nutrition, medications, and MBS. We recommend using modern definitions of severe obesity in children with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age- and sex-matched growth charts defining class II obesity as 120% of the 95th percentile and class III obesity as 140% of the 95th percentile. Adolescents with class II obesity and a co-morbidity (listed in the guidelines), or with class III obesity should be considered for MBS. Adolescents with cognitive disabilities, a history of mental illness or eating disorders that are treated, immature bone growth, or low Tanner stage should not be denied treatment. MBS is safe and effective in adolescents; given the higher risk of adult obesity that develops in childhood, MBS should not be withheld from adolescents when severe co-morbidities, such as depressed health-related quality of life score, type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis exist. Early intervention can reduce the risk of persistent obesity as well as end organ damage from long standing co-morbidities