Assessment of sea ice-atmosphere links in CMIP5 models

© 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. The Arctic is currently undergoing drastic changes in climate, largely thought to be due to so-called ‘Arctic amplification’, whereby local feedbacks enhance global warming. Recently, a number of observational and modelling studies have questioned what the implications of this change in Arctic sea ice extent might be for weather in Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and in particular whether recent extremely cold winters such as 2009/10 might be consistent with an influence from observed Arctic sea ice decline. However, the proposed mechanisms for these links have not been consistently demonstrated. In a uniquely comprehensive cross-season and cross-model study, we show that the CMIP5 models provide no support for a relationship between declining Arctic sea ice and a negative NAM, or between declining Barents–Kara sea ice and cold European temperatures. The lack of evidence for the proposed links is consistent with studies that report a low signal-to-noise ratio in these relationships. These results imply that, whilst links may exist between declining sea ice and extreme cold weather events in the Northern Hemisphere, the CMIP5 model experiments do not show this to be a leading order effect in the long-term. We argue that this is likely due to a combination of the limitations of the CMIP5 models and an indication of other important long-term influences on Northern Hemisphere climate

The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070-2099) and historical (1970-1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and -0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica.We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided the coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The original CMIP5 data can be accessed through the ESGF data portals (see http://pcmdi-cmip.llnl.gov/cmip5/ availability.html). This study is part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. It was funded by The UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant reference NE/K00445X/1). We would like to thank Paul Holland for his useful discussions and comments on an earlier version of this manuscript

Low genetic variation between South American and Antarctic populations of the bank-forming moss Chorisodontium aciphyllum (Dicranaceae)

The Antarctic–South American bank-forming moss Chorisodontium aciphyllum is known for having the oldest sub-fossils of any extant plant in Antarctica as well as extreme survival abilities, making it a candidate species for possible long-term survival in Antarctica. Applying phylogeographic and population genetic methods using the plastid markers trnL-F and rps4 and the nuclear internal transcribed spacer, we investigated the genetic diversity within C. aciphyllum throughout its range. Low genetic variation was found in all loci, both between and within Antarctic and southern South American populations, suggesting a relatively recent (likely within the last million years) colonization of this moss to the Antarctic, as well as a likely severe bottleneck during Pleistocene glaciations in southern South America. We also performed a simple atmospheric transfer modeling approach to study potential colonization rates of small (microscopic/microbial) or spore-dispersed organisms (such as many mosses and lichens). These suggested that the northern Antarctic Peninsula shows potentially regular connectivity from southern South America, with air masses transferring, particularly southbound, between the two regions. We found elevated genetic variation of C. aciphyllum in Elephant Island, also the location of the oldest known moss banks (> 5500 years), suggesting this location to be a genetic hotspot for this species in the Antarctic.This research was funded by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Ph.D. studentship (ref. NE/K50094X/1) to E.M.B. and supported by NERC core funding to the BAS Biodiversity, Evolution and Adaptation Team

Holocene dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds and possible links to CO2 outgassing

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean

A synergistic approach for evaluating climate model output for ecological applications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output

West Antarctic ice loss influenced by internal climate variability and anthropogenic forcing

Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean ariability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized

Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordThe decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.J.A.S. and R.B. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006760/1). C.D. acknowledges the National Science Foundation (NSF), which sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. D.M.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the APPLICATE project, which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. X.Z. was supported by the NSF (ARC#1023592). P.J.K. and K.E.M. were supported by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network, which is funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. T.O. was funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (GCXE17S038). L.S. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office

Формування та розвиток загальної теорії стійкості (середина XVIII ст. — 30-і рр. ХХ ст.)

У статті розглянуто історію вивчення стійкості (середина XVIII — початок XX ст., світовий контекст). Досліджено внесок А. Пуанкаре та О.М. Ляпунова в розвиток загальної теорії стійкості. Показано розвиток їх ідей у працях російських та українських учених.В статье рассмотрена история изучения устойчивости (середина XVIII — начало XX в., мировой контекст). Исследован вклад французского ученого А. Пуанкаре и русского ученого А.М. Ляпунова в развитие общей теории устойчивости. Показано дальнейшее развитие их идей в трудах русских и украинских ученых.The history of basic research in stability is given. Contributions from H.Poincaré, a French mathematician, mechanic and physicist, and O. Lapunov, a soviet mathematician and mechanic (working in the Kharkiv university) to development of the general theory of stability are shown. In 1892—1902, O. Lyapunov constructed an original robust mathematical apparatus to study stability of motion. Development of ideas and methods of H.Poincar of H.Poincar³e and O. Lapunov in works of later Ukrainian and Russian scientists is shown