Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.</p

Physics, Astrophysics and Cosmology with Gravitational Waves

Gravitational wave detectors are already operating at interesting sensitivity levels, and they have an upgrade path that should result in secure detections by 2014. We review the physics of gravitational waves, how they interact with detectors (bars and interferometers), and how these detectors operate. We study the most likely sources of gravitational waves and review the data analysis methods that are used to extract their signals from detector noise. Then we consider the consequences of gravitational wave detections and observations for physics, astrophysics, and cosmology.Comment: 137 pages, 16 figures, Published version <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2009-2

Structural equation and log-linear modeling: a comparison of methods in the analysis of a study on caregivers' health

BACKGROUND: In this paper we compare the results in an analysis of determinants of caregivers' health derived from two approaches, a structural equation model and a log-linear model, using the same data set. METHODS: The data were collected from a cross-sectional population-based sample of 468 families in Ontario, Canada who had a child with cerebral palsy (CP). The self-completed questionnaires and the home-based interviews used in this study included scales reflecting socio-economic status, child and caregiver characteristics, and the physical and psychological well-being of the caregivers. Both analytic models were used to evaluate the relationships between child behaviour, caregiving demands, coping factors, and the well-being of primary caregivers of children with CP. RESULTS: The results were compared, together with an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of each approach, including their practical and conceptual implications. CONCLUSION: No important differences were found in the substantive conclusions of the two analyses. The broad confirmation of the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) results by the Log-linear Modeling (LLM) provided some reassurance that the SEM had been adequately specified, and that it broadly fitted the data

An evaluation of access to health care services along the rural-urban continuum in Canada

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies comparing the access to health care of rural and urban populations have been contradictory and inconclusive. These studies are complicated by the influence of other factor which have been shown to be related to access and utilization. This study assesses the equity of access to health care services across the rural-urban continuum in Canada before and after taking other determinants of access into account.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a cross-sectional study of the population of the 10 provinces of Canada using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS 2.1). Five different measures of access and utilization are compared across the continuum of rural-urban. Known determinants of utilization are taken into account according to Andersen's Health Behaviour Model (HBM); location of residence at the levels of province, health region, and community is also controlled for.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study found that residents of small cities not adjacent to major centres, had the highest reported utilisation rates of influenza vaccines and family physician services, were most likely to have a regular medical doctor, and were most likely to report unmet need. Among the rural categories there was a gradient with the most rural being least likely to have had a flu shot, use specialist physicians services, or have a regular medical doctor. Residents of the most urban centres were more likely to report using specialist physician services. Many of these differences are diminished or eliminated once other factors are accounted for. After adjusting for other factors those living in the most urban areas were more likely to have seen a specialist physician. Those in rural communities had a lower odds of receiving a flu shot and having a regular medical doctor. People residing in the most urban and most rural communities were less likely to have a regular medical doctor. Those in any of the rural categories were less likely to report unmet need.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Inequities in access to care along the rural-urban continuum exist and can be masked when evaluation is done at a very large scale with gross indicators of rural-urban. Understanding the relationship between rural-urban and other determinants will help policy makers to target interventions appropriately: to specific demographic, provincial, community, or rural categories.</p

Defective CFTR Expression and Function Are Detectable in Blood Monocytes: Development of a New Blood Test for Cystic Fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) functional activity to assess new therapies and define diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF) is cumbersome. It is known that leukocytes express detectable levels of CFTR but the molecule has not been characterized in these cells. In this study we aim at setting up and validating a blood test to evaluate CFTR expression and function in leukocytes. DESCRIPTION: Western blot, PCR, immunofluorescence and cell membrane depolarization analysis by single-cell fluorescence imaging, using the potential-sensitive DiSBAC(2)(3) probe were utilized. Expression of PKA phosphorylated, cell membrane-localized CFTR was detected in non-CF monocytes, being undetectable or present in truncated form in monocytes derived from CF patients presenting with nonsense mutations. CFTR agonist administration induced membrane depolarization in monocytes isolated from non-CF donors (31 subjects) and, to a lesser extent, obligate CFTR heterozygous carriers (HTZ: 15 subjects), but it failed in monocytes from CF patients (44 subjects). We propose an index, which values in CF patients are significantly (p<0.001) lower than in the other two groups. Nasal Potential Difference, measured in selected subjects had concordant results with monocytes assay (Kappa statistic 0.93, 95%CI: 0.80-1.00). RESULTS AND SIGNIFICANCE: CFTR is detectable and is functional in human monocytes. We also showed that CFTR-associated activity can be evaluated in 5 ml of peripheral blood and devise an index potentially applicable for diagnostic purposes and both basic and translational research: from drug development to evaluation of functional outcomes in clinical trials

Vorinostat Induces Reactive Oxygen Species and DNA Damage in Acute Myeloid Leukemia Cells

Histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDACi) are promising anti-cancer agents, however, their mechanisms of action remain unclear. In acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells, HDACi have been reported to arrest growth and induce apoptosis. In this study, we elucidate details of the DNA damage induced by the HDACi vorinostat in AML cells. At clinically relevant concentrations, vorinostat induces double-strand breaks and oxidative DNA damage in AML cell lines. Additionally, AML patient blasts treated with vorinostat display increased DNA damage, followed by an increase in caspase-3/7 activity and a reduction in cell viability. Vorinostat-induced DNA damage is followed by a G2-M arrest and eventually apoptosis. We found that pre-treatment with the antioxidant N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) reduces vorinostat-induced DNA double strand breaks, G2-M arrest and apoptosis. These data implicate DNA damage as an important mechanism in vorinostat-induced growth arrest and apoptosis in both AML cell lines and patient-derived blasts. This supports the continued study and development of vorinostat in AMLs that may be sensitive to DNA-damaging agents and as a combination therapy with ionizing radiation and/or other DNA damaging agents

Molecular Typing and Phenotype Characterization of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Isolates from Blood in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus causes a variety of severe infections such as bacteremia and sepsis. At present, 60-80% of S. aureus isolates from Taiwan are methicillin resistant (MRSA). It has been shown that certain MRSA clones circulate worldwide. The goals of this study were to identify MRSA clones in Taiwan and to correlate the molecular types of isolates with their phenotypes. METHODS: A total of 157 MRSA isolates from bacteremic patients were collected from nine medical centers. They were typed based on polymorphisms in agr, SCCmec, MLST, spa, and dru. Phenotypes characterized included Panton-Valentine leucocidin (pvl), inducible macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin B resistance (MLSBi), vancomycin (VA) and daptomycin (DAP) minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC), and superantigenic toxin gene profiles. Difference between two consecutive samples was determined by Mann-Whitney-U test, and difference between two categorical variables was determined by Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: Four major MRSA clone complexes CC1, CC5, CC8, and CC59 were found, including 4 CC1, 9 CC5, 111 CC8, and 28 CC59 isolates. These clones had the following molecular types: CC1: SCCmecIV and ST573; CC5: SCCmecII and ST5; CC8: SCCmecIII, ST239, and ST241, and CC59: SCCmecIV, SCCmecV(T), ST59, and ST338. The toxin gene profiles of these clones were CC1: sec-seg-(sei)-sell-selm-(seln)-selo; CC5: sec-seg-sei-sell-selm-(seln)-selp-tst1; CC8: sea-selk-selq, and CC59: seb-selk-selq. Most isolates with SCCmecV(T), ST59, spat437, and dru11 types were pvl(+) (13 isolates), while multidrug resistance (≥4 antimicrobials) were associated with SCCmecIII, ST239, spa t037, agrI, and dru14 (119 isolates) (p<0.001). One hundred and twenty four isolates with the following molecular types had higher VA MIC: SCCmecII and SCCmecIII; ST5, ST239, and ST241; spa t002, t037, and t421; dru4, dru10, dru12, dru13, and dru14 (p<0.05). No particular molecular types were found to be associated with MLSBi phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: Four major MRSA clone complexes were found in Taiwan. Further studies are needed to delineate the evolution of MRSA isolates

Measuring affective well-being at work using short-form scales : implications for affective structures and participant instructions

Measuring affective well-being in organizational studies has become increasingly widespread, given its association with key work-performance and other markers of organizational functioning. As such, researchers and policy-makers need to be confident that well-being measures are valid, reliable and robust. To reduce the burden on participants in applied settings, short-form measures of affective well-being are proving popular. However, these scales are seldom validated as standalone, comprehensive measures in their own right. In this article, we used a short-form measure of affective well-being with 10 items: the Daniels five-factor measure of affective well-being (D-FAW). In Study 1, across six applied sample groups (N = 2624), we found that the factor structure of the short-form D-FAW is robust when issued as a standalone measure, and that it should be scored differently depending on the participant instruction used. When participant instructions focus on now or today, then affect is best represented by five discrete emotion factors. When participant instructions focus on the past week, then affect is best represented by two or three mood-based factors. In Study 2 (N = 39), we found good construct convergent validity of short-form D-FAW with another widely used scale (PANAS). Implications for the measurement and structure of affect are discussed