Ophthalmology research in the UK’s National Health Service: the structure and performance of the NIHR’s Ophthalmology research portfolio

Purpose- To report on the composition and performance of the portfolio of Ophthalmology research studies in the United Kingdom’s National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (UK CRN). Methods- Ophthalmology studies open to recruitment between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2018 were classified by: sub-specialty, participant age, gender of Chief Investigator, involvement of genetic investigations, commercial/ non-commercial, interventional/observational design. Frequency distributions for each covariate and temporal variation in recruitment to time and target were analysed. Results- Over 8 years, 137,377 participants were recruited (average of 15,457 participants/year; range: 5485–32,573) with growth by year in proportion of commercial studies and hospital participation in England (76% in 2017/18). Fourteen percent of studies had a genetic component and most studies (82%) included only adults. The majority of studies (41%) enrolled patients with retinal diseases, followed by glaucoma (17%), anterior segment and cataract (13%), and ocular inflammation (6%). Overall, 68% of non-commercial studies and 55% of commercial studies recruited within the anticipated time set by the study and also recruited to or exceeded the target number of participants. Conclusions- High levels of clinical research activity, growth and improved performance have been observed in Ophthalmology in UK over the past 8 years. Some sub-specialties that carry substantial morbidity and a very high burden on NHS services are underrepresented and deserve more patient-centred research. Yet the NIHR and its CRN Ophthalmology National Specialty Group has enabled key steps in achieving the goal of embedding research into every day clinical care

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global Estimates on the Number of People Blind or Visually Impaired by Diabetic Retinopathy: A Meta-analysis From 1990 to 2010

OBJECTIVE: To estimate global and regional trends from 1990 to 2010 of the prevalence and number of persons visually impaired specifically by diabetic retinopathy (DR), as a complication of the precipitous trends in global diabetes, is fundamental for health planning purposes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The meta-analysis of published population studies from 1990 to 2012 for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD) yielded estimated global regional trends in DR among other causes of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity <6/18, ≥3/60) and blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60). RESULTS: Globally in 2010, out of overall 32.4 million blind and 191 million visually impaired people, 0.8 million were blind and 3.7 million were visually impaired because of DR, with an alarming increase of 27% and 64%, respectively, spanning the two decades from 1990 to 2010. DR accounted for 2.6% of all blindness in 2010 and 1.9% of all MSVI worldwide, increasing from 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively, in 1990. These figures were lower in regions with younger populations (4%). CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons with visual impairment due to DR worldwide is rising and represents an increasing proportion of all blindness/MSVI causes. Age-standardized prevalence of DR-related blindness/MSVI was higher in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. One out of 39 blind people had blindness due to DR, and 1 out of 52 visually impaired people had visual impairment due to DR

Prevalence and causes of vision loss in central and south Asia: 1990-2010

Background: To examine the prevalence, patterns and trends of vision impairment and its causes from 1990 to 2010 in Central and South Asia. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2010 and ongoing literature searches, we examined prevalence and causes of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity \u3c6/18, =3/60) and blindness ( presenting visual acuity \u3c3/60). Results: In Central Asia, the estimated age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased from 0.4% (95% CI 0.3% to 0.6%) to 0.2% (95% CI 0.2% to 0.3%) and of MSVI from 3.0% (95% CI 1.9% to 4.7%) to 1.9% (95% CI 1.2% to 3.2%), and in South Asia blindness decreased from 1.7% (95% CI 1.4% to 2.1%) to 1.1% (95% CI 0.9% to 1.3%) and MSVI from 8.9% (95% CI 6.9% to 10.9%) to 6.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 8.2%). In 2010, 135 000 (95% CI 99 000 to 194 000) people were blind in Central Asia and 10 600 000 (95% CI 8 397 000 to 12 500 000) people in South Asia. MSVI was present in 1 178 000 (95% CI 772 000 to 2 243 000) people in the Central Asia, and in 71 600 000 (95% CI 57 600 000 to 92 600 000) people in South Asia. Women were generally more often affected than men. The leading causes of blindness (cataract) and MSVI (undercorrected refractive error) did not change from 1990 to 2010. Conclusions The prevalence of blindness and MSVI in South Asia is still three times higher than in Central Asia and globally, with women generally more often affected than women. In both regions, cataract and undercorrected refractive error were major causes of blindness and MSVI

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the research activities of UK ophthalmologists

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted negatively on many areas of biomedical research and there is concern that academic recovery will take several years. This survey aimed to define the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK ophthalmologists’ research activities and understand the implications for recovery. Methods: An online survey comprising multiple choice and free-text questions was designed, piloted and then distributed to Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) members in January 2021. Respondent characteristics, research expectations and experiences through the pandemic were captured. Descriptive and comparative statistics were applied to quantitative data alongside content analysis of qualitative data. Results: In total, 148 respondents (3.7% of RCOphth membership) comprised 46 trainees (31.1%), 97 consultants (65.5%) and 5 SAS doctors (3.4%); 54 had clinical-academic roles (36.5%) and 65/94 (69.1%) ophthalmologists with fully clinical posts identified as research-active. Of 114 research-active respondents, 104 (91.2%) reported an impact on their research from COVID-19; negative impacts included loss of research time (n = 69), research delays (n = 96) and funding shortfalls (n = 63). Content analysis identified five common themes; type of research activity, clinical demands, institutional challenges, COVID-19 alignment and work-life balance. Conclusions: UK ophthalmology research has been adversely impacted by the pandemic. A substantial proportion of UK ophthalmologists are research active, but 20.4% of those surveyed felt that the pandemic had made research less attractive. Strategic steps must be taken to nurture UK ophthalmologists’ engagement with research, especially for those who currently do no research, if the profession is to align itself with the Government vision of ‘Research for All’.</p

Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: An analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990–2020, and forecasts for 2050. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with clearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity ≥6/18 and \u3c6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (\u3c6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (\u3c3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near visio