A Test of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using data from a Natural Experiment

Data on contestants' choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. The most important issue addressed in the paper is what belief function is actually being used by contestants. The parameters of this function are estimated freely along with the parameters of a choice model. Separate identification of the belief function and preferences is possible by virtue of the fact that at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the "true" offer function which is estimated using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find that there is a significant difference between these two functions, and hence we reject the rational expectations hypothesis. However, when a simpler "rule-of-thumb" structure is as- sumed for the belief function, we find a correspondence to the function obtained from data on actual offers. Our overall conclusion is that contestants are rational to the extent that they make use of all available relevant information, but are not fully rational because they are not processing the information in an optimal way. The importance of belief-formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward-looking as opposed to myopic.Beliefs, Discrete choice models, Method of simulated likelihood, Natural Experiments, rational expectations, risky choice

Identification of novel Cu, Ag, and Au ternary oxides from global structural prediction

We use ab initio global structural prediction, and specifically the minima hopping method, to explore the periodic table in search of novel oxide phases. In total, we study 183 different compositions of the form MXO2, where M=(Cu, Ag, Au) and X is an element of the periodic table. This set includes the well-known Cu delafossite compounds that are, up to now, the best p-type transparent conductive oxides known to mankind. Our calculations discover 81 stable compositions, out of which only 36 are included in available databases. Some of these new phases are potentially good candidates for transparent electrodes. These results demonstrate, on one hand, how incomplete is still our knowledge of the phase-space of stable ternary materials. On the other hand, we show that structural prediction combined with high-throughput approaches is a powerful tool to extend that knowledge, paving the way for the experimental discovery of new materials on a large scale

Density-based mixing parameter for hybrid functionals

A very popular ab-initio scheme to calculate electronic properties in solids is the use of hybrid functionals in density functional theory (DFT) that mixes a portion of Fock exchange with DFT functionals. In spite of their success, a major problem still remains, related to the use of one single mixing parameter for all materials. Guided by physical arguments that connect the mixing parameter to the dielectric properties of the solid, and ultimately to its band gap, we propose a method to calculate this parameter from the electronic density alone. This method is able to cut significantly the error of traditional hybrid functionals for large and small gap materials, while retaining a good description of structural properties. Moreover, its implementation is simple and leads to a negligible increase of the computational time.Comment: submitte

ON THE APPLICATION OF REMOTE SENSING TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR LAND COVER MAPPING: SPECTRAL INDICES FOR CROPS CLASSIFICATION

Abstract. This study aims to introduce a semi-automatic classification workflow for the production of a land use/land cover (LULC) map of the island of Sardinia (Italy) following the CORINE legend schema, and a ground spatial resolution compatible with a scale of 1:25.000. The classification is based on free high-resolution satellite imagery from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 collected in 2020, ancillary data derived from Sardinian Geoportal, Joint Research Centre (JRC) and OpenStreetMap. The LULC map production includes three steps: 1) pixel-based classification, realized with two different approaches, that use i) information derived from existing thematic maps eventually re-coded in case of incoherencies observed between datasets and/or satellite data products, and ii) spectral indices and parameter thresholds defined on the basis of multitemporal analysis; 2) segmentation of Sentinel-1 and 2 annual composites, and pre-labelling of segments with the pixel-based classified map, obtaining the preliminary map; 3) visual inspection procedure in order to confirm, or re-assign, classes to polygons. The accuracy of the preliminary map was tested in a sample area and on specific class of non-irrigated crops through ground truth data collected from a detailed photo-interpretation, estimating 97% of overall accuracy. The results show a great improvement from existing thematic maps in terms of detail, with the possibility of a yearly updating of the map via automatic processes. However, some limitations were found, due to the high fragmentation of Sardinian landscape and the high variety of crop types and agricultural practices, that could affect the efficiency of the classifier

On-site magnetization in open antiferromagnetic chains: a classical analysis versus NMR experiments in a spin-1 compound

The response of an open spin chain with isotropic antiferromagnetic interactions to a uniform magnetic field is studied by classical Monte Carlo simulations. It is observed how the induced on-site magnetization is non uniform, due to the occurrence of edge staggered terms which decay exponentially over a distance equal to the zero field correlation length of the infinite chain. The total magnetic moment associated to each staggered term is found to be about half of the original single-spin magnitude and to decrease as the inverse of temperature (i.e. to behave as a Curie-like moment). The numerical results are compared to recent NMR findings in spinless-doped Y(2)BaNiO(5); the remarkable agreement found shows that, for temperatures above the Haldane gap, the classical approach gives a correct picture of the boundary effects observed in the Heisenberg S=1 chain.Comment: 4 pages, 4 eps figures; minor changes in the text; added reference

Triple positive breast cancer. A distinct subtype?

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, and within the HER-2 positive subtype this is highly exemplified by the presence of substantial phenotypical and clinical heterogeneity, mostly related to hormonal receptor (HR) expression. It is well known how HER-2 positivity is commonly associated with a more aggressive tumor phenotype and decreased overall survival and, moreover, with a reduced benefit from endocrine treatment. Preclinical studies corroborate the role played by functional crosstalks between HER-2 and estrogen receptor (ER) signaling in endocrine resistance and, more recently, the activation of ER signaling is emerging as a possible mechanism of resistance to HER-2 blocking agents. Indeed, HER-2 positive breast cancer heterogeneity has been suggested to underlie the variability of response not only to endocrine treatments, but also to HER-2 blocking agents. Among HER-2 positive tumors, HR status probably defines two distinct subtypes, with dissimilar clinical behavior and different sensitivity to anticancer agents. The triple positive subtype, namely, ER/PgR/Her-2 positive tumors, could be considered the subset which most closely resembles the HER-2 negative/HR positive tumors, with substantial differences in biology and clinical outcome. We argue on whether in this subgroup the "standard" treatment may be considered, in selected cases, i.e., small tumors, low tumor burden, high expression of both hormonal receptors, an overtreatment. This article review the existing literature on biologic and clinical data concerning the HER-2/ER/PgR positive tumors, in an attempt to better define the HER-2 subtypes and to optimize the use of HER-2 targeted agents, chemotherapy and endocrine treatments in the various subsets

Removal of ammonium from wastewater with geopolymer sorbents fabricated via additive manufacturing

Geopolymers have been recently explored as sorbents for wastewater treatment, thanks to their mechanical and chemical stability and to their low-energy manufacturing process. One specific application could be the removal of ammonium (NH4+) through exchange with Na+ ions. Additive manufacturing (AM) represents an especially interesting option for fabrication, as it allows to tailor the size, distribution, shape, and interconnectivity of pores, and therefore the access to charge-bearing sites. The present study provides a proof of concept for NH4+ removal from wastewater using porous geopolymer components fabricated via direct ink writing (DIW) AM approach. A metakaolin-based ink was employed for the fabrication of a log-pile structure with 45\ub0 rotation between layers, producing continuous yet tortuous macropores which are responsible for the high permeability of the sorbents. The ink consolidates in an amorphous, mesoporous network, with the mesopores acting as preferential sites for ion exchange. The printed sorbents were characterized for their physicochemical and mechanical properties and the NH4+ removal capacity in continuous-flow column experiments by using a model effluent. The lattices present high permeability and high cation exchange capacity and maintained a high amount of active ions after four cycles, allowing to reuse them multiple times

Long-term NIR Variability in the UKIDSS Ultra Deep Survey:a new probe of AGN activity at high redshift

We present the first attempt to select AGN using long-term NIR variability. By analysing the K-band light curves of all the galaxies in the UKIDSS Ultra Deep Survey, the deepest NIR survey over ~1 sq degree, we have isolated 393 variable AGN candidates. A comparison to other selection techniques shows that only half of the variable sources are also selected using either deep Chandra X-ray imaging or IRAC colour selection, suggesting that using NIR variability can locate AGN that are missed by more standard selection techniques. In particular, we find that long-term NIR variability identifies AGN at low luminosities and in host galaxies with low stellar masses, many of which appear relatively X-ray quiet.Comment: 12 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, an error in Equation 1 has been fixed in this versio

Using SNP array data to test for host genetic and breed effects on Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Viremia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effect of breed on Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Viremia (PRRSV) was tested using data collected in 17 Italian commercial pig farms and 1096 genotypes obtained by the PorcineSNP60 BeadChip. A binomial logistic model was used to investigate the relationship between breed-clusters and PRRSV susceptibility. Breed-clusters were defined using the matrix of genomic kinship between all pairs of piglets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only the contemporary group effect, defined as all piglets reared in the same herd, in the same year and whose samples were collected in the same season, was significant. Sex, age and breed-cluster showed no statistically significant effect on PRRS viremia, although the Landrace and Cross breed-clusters showed the lowest Odds-Ratio</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The model failed to detect a significant breed-cluster effect, highlighting the impact of environment and management on PRRS viremia incidence. Incomplete exposure over the observed period may have masked possible breed differences.</p