The economic value of a climate service for water irrigation. A case study for Castiglione District, Emilia-Romagna, Italy

The use of climate services to support decision makers in incorporating climate change adaptation in their practices is well established and widely recognized. Their role is particularly relevant in a climate sensitive sector like agriculture where they can provide evidence for the adoption of transformative solutions from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. Adaptation solutions are often expensive and irreversible in the short/medium run. Accordingly, end users should have a reliable reference to make decisions. Here, we propose and apply a methodology, co-developed with service developers and a representative potential user, to assess the value of the IRRICLIME climate service, whose information is used to support decisions on climate smart irrigation investment by water planners in a sub-irrigation district in Italy. We quantify the value of the information provided by the climate service, that we consider the intrinsic value of the service, or the value of adaptation. We demonstrate that under three different climate change scenarios, the maximum potential value of IRRICLIME could range between 2,985 €/ha and 7,480 €/ha

Co-evaluation of climate services. A case study for hydropower generation

Climate services are attracting growing attention and interest as instruments to promote climate change adaptation. The transparent assessment of the potential value brought by the services can play a major role. It can foster the commitment of the user towards a co-generation process increasingly central to climate services creation, can provide developers important information to better tailor the service to the user needs, and can finally increase recognition of the value of the service boosting confidence and trust in the tool. This study presents and then demonstrates the applicability of an evaluation methodology based on the Bayesian framework derived from the information value theory. The specific case study is the Smart Climate Hydropower Tool (SCHT), a climate service designed to support management decisions in hydropower generation. The service uses freely available seasonal forecasts and machine learning algorithms to predict incoming discharge to hydropower reservoirs. The user is ENEL Green Power Italy, and the testing environments are two water basins in Colombia. The study defines the expected value of perfect information, the expected value of the information currently used by the hydropower producer and the expected value of the service information. It then discusses pros and cons of the applicability of the method

Microvascular heart involvement in systemic autoimmune diseases: The purinergic pathway and therapeutic insights from the biology of the diseases

Heart involvement \u2013 often asymptomatic \u2013 is largely underestimated in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases (SADs). Cardiovascular events are more frequent in patients with SADs compared to the general population, owing to the consequences of inflammation and autoimmunity and to the high prevalence of traditional risk factors. Coronary microvascular disease (CMD) is a form of cardiac involvement that is increasingly recognised yet still largely neglected. CMD, the incapacity of the coronary microvascular tree to dilate when myocardial oxygen demand increases or when there is a microvascular spasm (or subclinical myocarditis), is increasingly reported because of the widespread use of new cardiac imaging tools, even in a subclinical phase. The assessment of myocardial coronary flow reserve (CFR) emerged as the most effective clinical tool to detect microvascular damage. The potential causes of microvascular damage, molecular and cellular inflammation along with a pathological CD39-CD73 axis, need always to be considered because data show that they play a role in the occurrence of acute coronary syndromes, heart failure and arrhythmias, even in the early asymptomatic stage. Data suggest that controlling disease activity by means of methotrexate, biologic drugs, antimalarial medications, statins and aspirin, according to indication, might reduce the cardiovascular risk related to macrovascular and microvascular damage in most patients with SADs, provided that they are used early and timely to control diseases. The need of new biomarkers and a careful assessment of myocardial CFR emerged as the most effective clinical tool to detect microvascular damage

Thymosin β4 and β10 in Sjögren's syndrome: Saliva proteomics and minor salivary glands expression

Background: In the present study, we investigated whether thymosin β (Tβ) in saliva and in minor salivary glands is differentially expressed in patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) and patients with autoimmune diseases (systemic sclerosis [SSc], systemic lupus erythematosus [SLE], and rheumatoid arthritis [RA], with and without sicca syndrome [ss]). Methods: Saliva specimens of nine patients with pSS, seven with ss/SSc, seven with ss/SLE, seven with ss/RA, seven with SSc, seven with SLE, and seven with RA, as well as ten healthy subjects, were analyzed using a high-performance liquid chromatograph coupled with a mass spectrometer equipped with an electrospray ionization source to investigate the presence and levels of Tβ4, Tβ4 sulfoxide, and Tβ10. Immunostaining for Tβ4 and Tβ10 was performed on minor salivary glands of patients with pSS and ss. Results: Tβ4 levels were statistically higher in patients with pSS with respect to the other subgroups. Tβ10 was detectable in 66.7 % of patients with pSS and in 42.8 % of those with ss/SSc, while Tβ4 sulfoxide was detectable in 44.4 % of patients with pSS and in 42.9 % of those with ss/SSc. Tβ10 and Tβ4 sulfoxide were not detectable in patients without associated ss and in healthy control subjects. Regarding thymosin immunostaining, all patients had immunoreactivity for Tβ10, and a comparable distribution pattern in the four different subgroups of patients was observed. Tβ4 immunoreactivity was present in patients with ss/SSc and those with ss/SLE, while it was completely absent in patients with pSS and those with ss/RA. Conclusions: Our data show that higher salivary Tβ expression characterizes patients with pSS, while Tβ4 sulfoxide and Tβ10 salivary expression was selectively present in patients with sicca symptoms. Moreover, at the immunohistochemical level in patients with pSS, minor salivary glands showed a peculiar pattern characterized by immunostaining for Tβ10 in acinar cells in the absence of any reactivity for Tβ4. These findings, taken together, suggest a different role for Tβ4 and Tβ10 in patients with pSS who have ss and other autoimmune disease

Treatment strategy introducing immunosuppressive drugs with glucocorticoids ab initio or very early in giant cell arteritis: A multicenter retrospective controlled study

Objective: Glucocorticoids (GC) are associated with side effects in giant cell arteritis (GCA). Immunosuppressive therapies (ITs) have given conflicting results in GCA, regarding GC sparing effect. Primary endpoint is to evaluate whether very early introduction of ITs in GCA minimize the rate of GC-induced adverse events, in terms of infections, new onset systemic arterial hypertension, GC-induced diabetes and osteoporotic fractures. Methods: A multicenter retrospective case-control study included 165 patients. One group included 114 patients who were treated with at least one IT given at diagnosis or within 3 months from the start of GC. A second group included 51 GCA who received only GC or an IT more than 3 months later. Results: The most frequently used ITs were: methotrexate (138 patients), cyclophosphamide (48 patients) and tocilizumab (27 patients). No difference was observed as concerns the follow-up time between groups [48.5 (IQR 26\u201372) vs 40 (IQR 24\u201369), p \u200b= \u200b0.3)]. The first group showed a significantly lower incidence of steroid-induced diabetes (8/114, 7% vs 12/51, 23.5%; p \u200b= \u200b0.003) and no differences for the rate of infections (p \u200b= \u200b0.64). The group was also exposed to lower doses of GC at first (p \u200b< \u200b0.0001) and third (p \u200b< \u200b0.0001, rank-sum test) month. Forty-four patients in the first group (38.6%) compared with 34 in the second one (66.7%) experienced at least one relapse (p \u200b= \u200b0.001). Conclusion: Very early introduction of IT in GCA lowered the incidence of steroid-induced diabetes, possibly due to the lower doses of GC in the first three months. Relapse rate was even lower

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points

Allele *2 of the HS1,2A enhancer of the Ig regulatory region associates with rheumatoid arthritis

Objective: To investigate the role of the HS1.2 enhancer polymorphisms as a new candidate marker for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and to define the possible association with autoantibody positivity and clinical outcome. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from two cohorts of patients with RA (100 with early RA (ERA) and 114 with longstanding RA (LSRA)) and from 248 gender-matched controls from the same geographical area. Clinical and immunological characteristics were recorded for all the patients. Results: The percentage of the 2/2 genotype was higher In patients with ERA (27.0%), and In patients with LSRA (34.2%), than In controls (14.9%) (ERA: OR = 2.11 (95% Cl 1.20 to 3.70) vs controls; LSRA: OR = 2.96 (95% Cl 1.76 to 5.00) vs controls). A lower representation of allele *3 was present In patients with ERA (2.0%) than In controls (6.0%; OR = 0.32 (95% Cl 0.11 to 0.91)). No significant associations were found between polymorphisms and autoantibodies positivity. Conclusion: The HS1.2A allele *2 associates with early and longstanding RA

Longitudinal Study of Optic Disk Perfusion and Retinal Structure in Leber's Hereditary Optic Neuropathy

PURPOSE. The purpose of this study was to evaluate optic disk perfusion and neural retinal structure in patients with subacute Leber's hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and LHON carriers, as compared with healthy controls. METHODS. This study included 8 patients with LHON in the subacute stage, 10 asymptomatic carriers of a LHON-associated mitochondrial DNA mutation, and 40 controls. All subjects underwent measurement of the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness, the ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thickness using optical coherence tomography and optic disk microvascular perfusion (Mean Tissue [MT]) using laser speckle flowgraphy (LSFG). Patients were re-examined after a median interval of 3 months from the baseline visit. RESULTS. LHON carriers had higher values of RNFL thickness, GCIPL thickness, and disk area than controls (P &lt; 0.05), whereas MT was not different between the two groups (P = 0.936). Median MT and RNFL thickness were 32% and 15% higher in the early subacute stage of the disease than in controls (P &lt; 0.001 and P = 0.001). MT declined below the values of controls during the late subacute stage (P = 0.024), whereas RNFL thickness declined later during the dynamic stage (P &lt; 0.001). GCIPL thickness was lower in patients with LHON than in controls independently of the stage of the disease (P &lt; 0.001). CONCLUSIONS. The high blood flow at the optic disk during the early subacute stage may be the consequence of vasodilation due to nitric oxide release as compensation to mitochondrial impairment. Optic disk perfusion as measured by LSFG is a promising biomarker for LHON diagnosis and monitoring as well as an objective outcome measure for assessing response to therapies

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Plan or React? Analysis of Adaptation Costs and Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models

This report examines adaptation and mitigation within an integrated framework. Global and regional costs of adaptation are assessed dynamically and the resulting benefits are quantified. This is accomplished by developing a framework to incorporate adaptation as a policy variable within three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs); the global Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), and the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model. The framework developed here takes into account investments in reactive adaptation and in adaptation “stocks”, as well as investments in building adaptive capacity. This report presents the first inter-model comparison of results on adaptation costs using the emerging category of adaptation-IAMs. Results show that least-cost policy response to climate change will need to involve subsantial amounts of mitigation efforts, investments in adaptation stock, reactive adaptation measures and adaptive capacity to limit the remaining damages