The Padul normal fault activity constrained by GPS data: Brittle extension orthogonal to folding in the central Betic Cordillera

The Padul Fault is located in the Central Betic Cordillera, formed in the framework of the NW-SE Eurasian-African plate convergence. In the Internal Zone, large E-W to NE-SW folds of western Sierra Nevada accommodated the greatest NW-SE shortening and uplift of the cordillera. However, GPS networks reveal a present-day dominant E-W to NE-SW extensional setting at surface. The Padul Fault is the most relevant and best exposed active normal fault that accommodates most of the NE-SW extension of the Central Betics. This WSW-wards dipping fault, formed by several segments of up to 7 km maximum length, favored the uplift of the Sierra Nevada footwall away from the Padul graben hanging wall. A non-permanent GPS network installed in 1999 constrains an average horizontal extensional rate of 0.5 mm/yr in N66{\deg}E direction. The fault length suggests that a (maximum) 6 magnitude earthquake may be expected, but the absence of instrumental or historical seismic events would indicate that fault activity occurs at least partially by creep. Striae on fault surfaces evidence normal-sinistral kinematics, suggesting that the Padul Fault may have been a main transfer fault of the westernmost end of the Sierra Nevada antiform. Nevertheless, GPS results evidence: (1) shortening in the Sierra Nevada antiform is in its latest stages, and (2) the present-day fault shows normal with minor oblique dextral displacements. The recent change in Padul fault kinematics will be related to the present-day dominance of the ENE-WSW regional extension versus ~ NNW-SSE shortening that produced the uplift and northwestwards displacement of Sierra Nevada antiform. This region illustrates the importance of heterogeneous brittle extensional tectonics in the latest uplift stages of compressional orogens, as well as the interaction of folding during the development of faults at shallow crustal levels

A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19

Objective: This study aims to build a multistate model and describe a predictive tool for estimating the daily number of intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital beds occupied by patients with coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19). Material and methods: The estimation is based on the simulation of patient trajectories using a multistate model where the transition probabilities between states are estimated via competing risks and cure models. The input to the tool includes the dates of COVID-19 diagnosis, admission to hospital, admission to ICU, discharge from ICU and discharge from hospital or death of positive cases from a selected initial date to the current moment. Our tool is validated using 98,496 cases positive for severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 extracted from the Aragón Healthcare Records Database from July 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. Results: The tool demonstrates good performance for the 7- and 14-days forecasts using the actual positive cases, and shows good accuracy among three scenarios corresponding to different stages of the pandemic: 1) up-scenario, 2) peak-scenario and 3) down-scenario. Long term predictions (two months) also show good accuracy, while those using Holt-Winters positive case estimates revealed acceptable accuracy to day 14 onwards, with relative errors of 8.8%. Discussion: In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals must evolve in a dynamic way. Our prediction tool is designed to predict hospital occupancy to improve healthcare resource management without information about clinical history of patients. Conclusions: Our easy-to-use and freely accessible tool (https://github.com/peterman65) shows good performance and accuracy for forecasting the daily number of hospital and ICU beds required for patients with COVID-19

Processing reflectivity and Doppler velocity from EarthCARE's cloud-profiling radar: the C-FMR, C-CD and C-APC products

The Earth Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation (EarthCARE) satellite mission is a joint effort by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The EarthCARE mission features the first spaceborne 94 GHz cloud-profiling radar (CPR) with Doppler capability. The raw CPR observations and auxiliary information are used as input to three Level-2 (L2) algorithms: (1) C-APC: Antenna Pointing Characterization; (2) C-FMR: CPR feature mask and reflectivity; (3) C-CD: Corrected CPR Doppler Measurements. These algorithms apply quality control and corrections to the CPR primary measurements and derive important geophysical variables, such as hydrometeor locations, and best estimates of particle sedimentation fall velocities. The C-APC algorithm uses natural targets to introduce any corrections needed to the CPR raw Doppler velocities due to the CPR antenna pointing. The C-FMR product provides the feature mask based on only-reflectivity CPR measurements and quality-controlled radar-reflectivity profiles corrected for gaseous attenuation at 94 GHz. In addition, C-FMR provides best estimates of the path-integrated attenuation (PIA) and flags identifying the presence of multiple scattering in the CPR observations. Finally, the C-CD product provides the quality-controlled, bias-corrected mean Doppler velocity estimates (Doppler measurements corrected for antenna mispointing, non-uniform beam filling and velocity folding). In addition, the best estimate of the particle sedimentation velocity is estimated using a novel technique.</p

The Campo de Dalias GNSS Network Unveils the Interaction between Roll-Back and Indentation Tectonics in the Gibraltar Arc

The Gibraltar Arc includes the Betic and Rif Cordilleras surrounding the Alboran Sea; it is formed at the northwest-southeast Eurasia–Nubia convergent plate boundary in the westernmost Mediterranean. Since 2006, the Campo de Dalias GNSS network has monitored active tectonic deformation of the most seismically active area on the north coast of the Alboran Sea. Our results show that the residual deformation rates with respect to Eurasia range from 1.7 to 3.0 mm/year; roughly homogenous west-southwestward displacements of the northern sites occur, while the southern sites evidence irregular displacements towards the west and northwest. This deformation pattern supports simultaneous east-northeast–west-southwest extension, accommodated by normal and oblique faults, and north-northwest–south-southeast shortening that develops east-northeast–west-southwest folds. Moreover, the GNSS results point to dextral creep of the main northwest–southeast Balanegra Fault. These GNNS results thus reveal, for the first time, the present-day interaction of the roll-back tectonics of the Rif–Gibraltar–Betic slab in the western part of the Gibraltar Arc with the indentation tectonics affecting the eastern and southern areas, providing new insights for improving tectonic models of arcuate orogens.Junta de Andalucia; European Regional Development Fund; grant numbers: AGORA P18-RT-3275, PAPEL B-RNM-301-UGR18. Programa Operativo FEDER-Andalucia 2014–2020 Project ref. 1263446; University of Jaén; CEACTEMA; grant number: POAIUJA 21/22. Junta de Andalucía (Andalusian Board); grant numbers: RNM-148, RNM-282, RNM-370. V.T.S. was supported by the FPU PhD grant (16/04038)

The Campo de Dalias GNSS Network Unveils the Interaction between Roll-Back and Indentation Tectonics in the Gibraltar Arc

The Gibraltar Arc includes the Betic and Rif Cordilleras surrounding the Alboran Sea; it is formed at the northwest–southeast Eurasia–Nubia convergent plate boundary in the westernmost Mediterranean. Since 2006, the Campo de Dalias GNSS network has monitored active tectonic deformation of the most seismically active area on the north coast of the Alboran Sea. Our results show that the residual deformation rates with respect to Eurasia range from 1.7 to 3.0 mm/year; roughly homogenous west-southwestward displacements of the northern sites occur, while the southern sites evidence irregular displacements towards the west and northwest. This deformation pattern supports simultaneous east-northeast–west-southwest extension, accommodated by normal and oblique faults, and north-northwest–south-southeast shortening that develops east-northeast–west-southwest folds. Moreover, the GNSS results point to dextral creep of the main northwest–southeast Balanegra Fault. These GNNS results thus reveal, for the first time, present-day interaction of the roll-back tectonics of the Rif–Gibraltar–Betic slab in the western part of the Gibraltar Arc with the indentation tectonics affecting the eastern and southern areas, providing new insights for improving tectonic models of arcuate orogens.Junta de Andalucia; European Regional Development Fund; grant numbers: AGORA P18-RT-3275, PAPEL B-RNM-301-UGR18. Programa Operativo FEDER-Andalucia 2014–2020 Project ref. 1263446; University of Jaén; CEACTEMA; grant number: POAIUJA 21/22. Junta de Andalucía (Andalusian Board); grant numbers: RNM-148, RNM-282, RNM-370. V.T.S. was supported by the FPU PhD grant (16/04038)

Role of the 4Kscore test as a predictor of reclassification in prostate cancer active surveillance

Background: Management of active surveillance (AS) in low-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients could be improved with new biomarkers, such as the 4Kscore test. We analyze its ability to predict tumor reclassification by upgrading at the confirmatory biopsy at 6 months. Methods: Observational, prospective, blinded, and non-randomized study, within the Spanish National Registry on AS (AEU/PIEM/2014/0001; NCT02865330) with 181 patients included after initial Bx and inclusion criteria: PSA =10 ng/mL, cT1c-T2a, Grade group 1, =2 cores, and =5 mm/50% length core involved. Central pathological review of initial and confirmatory Bx was performed on all biopsy specimens. Plasma was collected 6 months after initial Bx and just before confirmatory Bx to determine 4Kscore result. In order to predict reclassification defined as Grade group =2, we analyzed 4Kscore, percent free to total (%f/t) PSA ratio, prostate volume, PSA density, family history, body mass index, initial Bx, total cores, initial Bx positive cores, initial Bx % of positive cores, initial Bx maximum cancer core length and initial Bx cancer % involvement. Wilcoxon rank-sum test, non-parametric trend test or Fisher’s exact test, as appropriate established differences between groups of reclassification. Results: A total of 137 patients met inclusion criteria. Eighteen patients (13.1%) were reclassified at confirmatory Bx. The %f/t PSA ratio and 4Kscore showed differences between the groups of reclassification (Yes/No). Using 7.5% as cutoff for the 4Kscore, we found a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 29%, with no reclassifications to Grade group 3 for patients with 4Kscore below 7.5% and 2 (6%) missed Grade group 2 reclassified patients. Using this threshold value there is a biopsy reduction of 27%. Additionally, 4Kscore was also associated with changes in tumor volume. Conclusions: Our preliminary findings suggest that the 4Kscore may be a useful tool in the decision-making process to perform a confirmatory Bx in active surveillance management

Geodetic fault slip rates on active faults in the Baza sub-Basin (SE Spain): Insights for seismic hazard assessment

One of the most significant parameters for seismic hazard assessment analyses is the fault slip rate. The combination of both geological (long-term) and geodetic (short-term) data offers a more complete characterization of the seismic potential of active faults. Moreover, geodetic data are also a helpful tool for the analysis of geodynamic processes. In this work, we present the results of a local GPS network from the Baza sub-Basin (SE Spain). This network, which includes six sites, was established in 2008 and has been observed for seven years. For the first time, we obtain short-term slip rates for the two active faults in this area. For the normal Baza Fault, we estimate slip rates ranging between 0.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr and 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr. For the strike-slip Galera Fault, we quantify the slip rate as 0.5 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Our GPS study shows a discrepancy for the Baza Fault between the short-term slip rates and previously reported long-term rates. This discrepancy indicates that the fault could be presently in a period with a displacement rate higher than the mean of the magnitude 6 seismic cycle. Moreover, the velocity vectors that we obtained also show the regional tectonic significance of the Baza Fault, as this structure accommodates one-third of the regional extension of the Central Betic Cordillera. Our GPS-related slip rates form the basis for future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Our results have further implications, as they indicate that the Baza and Galera Faults are kinematically coherent and they divide the Baza sub-Basin into two tectonic blocks. This points to a likely physical link between the Baza and Galera Faults; hence, a potential complex rupture involving both faults should be considered in future seismic hazard assessment studies.We acknowledge the comments of Editor Prof. Irina M. Artemieva and two anonymous reviewers, which significantly improved the quality of this paper. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and University (Research Projects: RTI2018-100737-BI00 and CGL2016-80687-R), the University of Alicante (Research Project: VIGROB053), the University of Jaén (PAIUJA 2019-2020 and Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucía 2014-2020 - call made by UJA 2018), the University of Granada (B-RNM-301-UGR18) and the Junta de Andalucía regional government (RNM148, RNM282, and RNM370 and P18-RT-3275 research groups). We thank all observers who collected the data of survey-mode GPS measurements

Small bowel enteroscopy - A joint clinical guideline from the spanish and portuguese small bowel study groups

The present evidence-based guidelines are focused on the use of device-assisted enteroscopy in the management of small-bowel diseases. A panel of experts selected by the Spanish and Portuguese small bowel study groups reviewed the available evidence focusing on the main indications of this technique, its role in the management algorithm of each indication and on its diagnostic and therapeutic yields. A set of recommendations were issued accordingly.Estas recomendações baseadas na evidência detalham o uso da enteroscopia assistida por dispositivo no manejo clínico das doenças do intestino delgado. Um conjunto de Gastrenterologistas diferenciados em patologia do intestino delgado foi selecionado pelos grupos de estudos Espanhol e Português de intestino delgado para rever a evidência disponível sobre as principais indicações desta técnica, o seu papel nos algoritmos de manejo de cada indicação e sobre o seu rendimento diagnóstico e terapêutico. Foi gerado um conjunto de recomendações pelos autores