Prediction of Large Events on a Dynamical Model of a Fault

We present results for long term and intermediate term prediction algorithms applied to a simple mechanical model of a fault. We use long term prediction methods based, for example, on the distribution of repeat times between large events to establish a benchmark for predictability in the model. In comparison, intermediate term prediction techniques, analogous to the pattern recognition algorithms CN and M8 introduced and studied by Keilis-Borok et al., are more effective at predicting coming large events. We consider the implications of several different quality functions Q which can be used to optimize the algorithms with respect to features such as space, time, and magnitude windows, and find that our results are not overly sensitive to variations in these algorithm parameters. We also study the intrinsic uncertainties associated with seismicity catalogs of restricted lengths.Comment: 33 pages, plain.tex with special macros include

HIV status disclosure to perinatally-infected adolescents in Zimbabwe: a qualitative study of adolescent and healthcare worker perspectives

Introduction & Objectives: Due to the scale up of antiretroviral therapy, increasing numbers of HIV-infected children are living into adolescence. As these children grow and surpass the immediate threat of death, the issue of informing them of their HIV status arises. This study aimed to understand how perinatally-infected adolescents learn about their HIV-status as well as to examine their preferences for the disclosure process. METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 31 (14 male, 17 female) perinatally-infected adolescents aged 16-20 at an HIV clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, and focused on adolescents' experiences of disclosure. In addition, 15 (1 male, 14 female) healthcare workers participated in two focus groups that were centred on healthcare workers' practices surrounding disclosure in the clinic. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants. A coding frame was developed and major themes were extracted using grounded theory methods. RESULTS: Healthcare workers encouraged caregivers to initiate disclosure in the home environment. However, many adolescents preferred disclosure to take place in the presence of healthcare workers at the clinic because it gave them access to accurate information as well as an environment that made test results seem more credible. Adolescents learned more specific information about living with an HIV-positive status and the meaning of that status from shared experiences among peers at the clinic. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-status disclosure to adolescents is distinct from disclosure to younger children and requires tailored, age-appropriate guidelines. Disclosure to this age group in a healthcare setting may help overcome some of the barriers associated with caregivers disclosing in the home environment and make the HIV status seem more credible to an adolescent. The study also highlights the value of peer support among adolescents, which could help reduce the burden of psychosocial care on caregivers and healthcare workers

Predictability of Self-Organizing Systems

We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current interest in seismology. In all cases we find detectable correlations between precursory smaller events and the large events we aim to forecast. We compare predictions based on different patterns of precursory events and find that for all of the models a new precursor based on the spatial distribution of activity outperforms more traditional measures based on temporal variations in the local activity.Comment: 15 pages, plain.tex with special macros included, 4 figure

Report from the third international consensus meeting to harmonise core outcome measures for atopic eczema/dermatitis clinical trials (HOME).

This report provides a summary of the third meeting of the Harmonising Outcome Measures for Eczema (HOME) initiative held in San Diego, CA, U.S.A., 6-7 April 2013 (HOME III). The meeting addressed the four domains that had previously been agreed should be measured in every eczema clinical trial: clinical signs, patient-reported symptoms, long-term control and quality of life. Formal presentations and nominal group techniques were used at this working meeting, attended by 56 voting participants (31 of whom were dermatologists). Significant progress was made on the domain of clinical signs. Without reference to any named scales, it was agreed that the intensity and extent of erythema, excoriation, oedema/papulation and lichenification should be included in the core outcome measure for the scale to have content validity. The group then discussed a systematic review of all scales measuring the clinical signs of eczema and their measurement properties, followed by a consensus vote on which scale to recommend for inclusion in the core outcome set. Research into the remaining three domains was presented, followed by discussions. The symptoms group and quality of life groups need to systematically identify all available tools and rate the quality of the tools. A definition of long-term control is needed before progress can be made towards recommending a core outcome measure

Stem Cells, Cell Therapies, and Bioengineering in Lung Biology and Disease 2021

The 9th biennial conference titled “Stem Cells, Cell Therapies, and Bioengineering in Lung Biology and Diseases” was hosted virtually, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in collaboration with the University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the Alpha-1 Foundation, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, and the International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy. The event was held from July 12th through 15th, 2021 with a pre-conference workshop held on July 9th. As in previous years, the objectives remained to review and discuss the status of active research areas involving stem cells (SCs), cellular therapeutics, and bioengineering as they relate to the human lung. Topics included 1) technological advancements in the in situ analysis of lung tissues, 2) new insights into stem cell signaling and plasticity in lung remodeling and regeneration, 3) the impact of extracellular matrix in stem cell regulation and airway engineering in lung regeneration, 4) differentiating and delivering stem cell therapeutics to the lung, 5) regeneration in response to viral infection, and 6) ethical development of cell-based treatments for lung diseases. This selection of topics represents some of the most dynamic and current research areas in lung biology

Development of a lung slice preparation for recording ion channel activity in alveolar epithelial type I cells

BACKGROUND: Lung fluid balance in the healthy lung is dependent upon finely regulated vectorial transport of ions across the alveolar epithelium. Classically, the cellular locus of the major ion transport processes has been widely accepted to be the alveolar type II cell. Although evidence is now emerging to suggest that the alveolar type I cell might significantly contribute to the overall ion and fluid homeostasis of the lung, direct assessment of functional ion channels in type I cells has remained elusive. METHODS: Here we describe a development of a lung slice preparation that has allowed positive identification of alveolar type I cells within an intact and viable alveolar epithelium using living cell immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: This technique has allowed, for the first time, single ion channels of identified alveolar type I cells to be recorded using the cell-attached configuration of the patch-clamp technique. CONCLUSION: This exciting new development should facilitate the ascription of function to alveolar type I cells and allow us to integrate this cell type into the general model of alveolar ion and fluid balance in health and disease

Differential effects of antiretroviral treatment on immunity and gut microbiome composition in people living with HIV in rural versus urban Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced mortality and improved life expectancy for people living with HIV (PLWH). However, even with HIV-1 suppression, chronic immune activation and elevated inflammation persist and have been linked to a pro-inflammatory gut microbiome composition and compromised intestinal barrier integrity. PLWH in urban versus rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa experience differences in environmental factors that may impact the gut microbiome and immune system, in response to ART, yet this has not previously been investigated in these groups. To address this, we measured T cell activation/exhaustion/trafficking markers, plasma inflammatory markers, and fecal microbiome composition in PLWH and healthy participants recruited from an urban clinic in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, and a district hospital that services surrounding rural villages. PLWH were either ART naïve at baseline and sampled again after 24 weeks of first-line ART and the antibiotic cotrimoxazole or were ART-experienced at both timepoints. RESULTS: Although expected reductions in the inflammatory marker IL-6, T-cell activation, and exhaustion were observed with ART-induced viral suppression, these changes were much more pronounced in the urban versus the rural area. Gut microbiome composition was the most highly altered from healthy controls in ART experienced PLWH, and characterized by both reduced alpha diversity and altered composition. However, gut microbiome composition showed a pronounced relationship with T cell activation and exhaustion in ART-naïve PLWH, suggesting a particularly significant role for the gut microbiome in disease progression in uncontrolled infection. Elevated immune exhaustion after 24 weeks of ART did correlate with both living in the rural location and a more Prevotella-rich/Bacteroides-poor microbiome type, suggesting a potential role for rural-associated microbiome differences or their co-variates in the muted improvements in immune exhaustion in the rural area. CONCLUSION: Successful ART was less effective at reducing gut microbiome-associated inflammation and T cell activation in PLWH in rural versus urban Zimbabwe, suggesting that individuals on ART in rural areas of Zimbabwe may be more vulnerable to co-morbidity related to sustained immune dysfunction in treated infection. Video Abstract

Alcohol consumption after health deterioration in older adults: a mixed-methods study

Objective To examine if and how older adults modify their drinking after health deterioration, and the factors that motivate changing or maintaining stable drinking behaviour. Study design Explanatory follow-up mixed-methods research. Methods The association between health deterioration and changes in alcohol consumption was examined using secondary data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a biennial prospective cohort study of a random sample of adults aged 50 years and older living in England. Data were collected through a personal interview and self-completion questionnaire across three waves between 2004 and 2009. The sample size (response rate) across the three waves was 8781 (49.9%), 7168 (40.3%) and 6623 (37.3%). The Chi-squared test was used to examine associations between diagnosis with a long-term condition or a worsening of self-rated health (e.g. from good to fair or fair to poor) and changes in drinking frequency (e.g. everyday, 5–6 days per week, etc.) and volume (ethanol consumed on a drinking day) between successive waves. In-depth interviews with 19 older adults recently diagnosed with a long-term condition were used to explore the factors that influenced change or maintenance in alcohol consumption over time. A purposive sampling strategy was used to recruit a diverse sample of current and former drinkers from voluntary and community organizations in the north of England. An inductive approach was used to analyze the data, facilitating the development of an a posteriori framework for understanding drinking change. Results There was no significant relationship between health deterioration and changes in drinking volume over time. There was however a significant association between health deterioration and changes in drinking frequency between successive waves (χ2 = 15.24, P < 0.001 and χ2 = 17.28, P < 0.001). For example, of participants reporting health deterioration between the first two waves, 47.6% had stable drinking frequency, 23.4% increased their drinking frequency and 29% reported decreased drinking frequency. In comparison, of participants reporting no health deterioration, 52.7% reported stable frequency, 20.8% increased frequency and 26.4% decreased frequency. In qualitative interviews, older adults described a wide range of factors that influence changes in drinking behaviour: knowledge gained from talking to healthcare professionals, online and in the media; tangible negative experiences that were attributed to drinking; mood and emotions (e.g. joy); the cost of alcohol; pub closures; and changes in social roles and activities. Health was just one part of a complex mix of factors that influenced drinking among older adults. Conclusion Patterns of drinking change after health deterioration in older adults are diverse, including stable, increasing and decreasing alcohol consumption over time. Although health motivations to change drinking influence behaviour in some older adults, social and financial motivations to drink are also important in later life and thus a holistic approach is required to influence behaviour

Anatomy of a microearthquake sequence on an active normal fault

The analysis of similar earthquakes, such as events in a seismic sequence, is an effective tool with which to monitor and study source processes and to understand the mechanical and dynamic states of active fault systems. We are observing seismicity that is primarily concentrated in very limited regions along the 1980 Irpinia earthquake fault zone in Southern Italy, which is a complex system characterised by extensional stress regime. These zones of weakness produce repeated earthquakes and swarm-like microearthquake sequences, which are concentrated in a few specific zones of the fault system. In this study, we focused on a sequence that occurred along the main fault segment of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake to understand its characteristics and its relation to the loading-unloading mechanisms of the fault system