How to infer relative fitness from a sample of genomic sequences

Mounting evidence suggests that natural populations can harbor extensive fitness diversity with numerous genomic loci under selection. It is also known that genealogical trees for populations under selection are quantifiably different from those expected under neutral evolution and described statistically by Kingman's coalescent. While differences in the statistical structure of genealogies have long been used as a test for the presence of selection, the full extent of the information that they contain has not been exploited. Here we shall demonstrate that the shape of the reconstructed genealogical tree for a moderately large number of random genomic samples taken from a fitness diverse, but otherwise unstructured asexual population can be used to predict the relative fitness of individuals within the sample. To achieve this we define a heuristic algorithm, which we test in silico using simulations of a Wright-Fisher model for a realistic range of mutation rates and selection strength. Our inferred fitness ranking is based on a linear discriminator which identifies rapidly coalescing lineages in the reconstructed tree. Inferred fitness ranking correlates strongly with actual fitness, with a genome in the top 10% ranked being in the top 20% fittest with false discovery rate of 0.1-0.3 depending on the mutation/selection parameters. The ranking also enables to predict the genotypes that future populations inherit from the present one. While the inference accuracy increases monotonically with sample size, samples of 200 nearly saturate the performance. We propose that our approach can be used for inferring relative fitness of genomes obtained in single-cell sequencing of tumors and in monitoring viral outbreaks

Competition between recombination and epistasis can cause a transition from allele to genotype selection

Biochemical and regulatory interactions central to biological networks are expected to cause extensive genetic interactions or epistasis affecting the heritability of complex traits and the distribution of genotypes in populations. However, the inference of epistasis from the observed phenotype-genotype correlation is impeded by statistical difficulties, while the theoretical understanding of the effects of epistasis remains limited, in turn limiting our ability to interpret data. Of particular interest is the biologically relevant situation of numerous interacting genetic loci with small individual contributions to fitness. Here, we present a computational model of selection dynamics involving many epistatic loci in a recombining population. We demonstrate that a large number of polymorphic interacting loci can, despite frequent recombination, exhibit cooperative behavior that locks alleles into favorable genotypes leading to a population consisting of a set of competing clones. When the recombination rate exceeds a certain critical value that depends on the strength of epistasis, this "genotype selection" regime disappears in an abrupt transition, giving way to "allele selection"-the regime where different loci are only weakly correlated as expected in sexually reproducing populations. We show that large populations attain highest fitness at a recombination rate just below critical. Clustering of interacting sets of genes on a chromosome leads to the emergence of an intermediate regime, where blocks of cooperating alleles lock into genetic modules. These haplotype blocks disappear in a second transition to pure allele selection. Our results demonstrate that the collective effect of many weak epistatic interactions can have dramatic effects on the population structure.Comment: Supplementary Material available on PNAS websit

Rate of Adaptation in Large Sexual Populations

Adaptation often involves the acquisition of a large number of genomic changes which arise as mutations in single individuals. In asexual populations, combinations of mutations can fix only when they arise in the same lineage, but for populations in which genetic information is exchanged, beneficial mutations can arise in different individuals and be combined later. In large populations, when the product of the population size N and the total beneficial mutation rate U_b is large, many new beneficial alleles can be segregating in the population simultaneously. We calculate the rate of adaptation, v, in several models of such sexual populations and show that v is linear in NU_b only in sufficiently small populations. In large populations, v increases much more slowly as log NU_b. The prefactor of this logarithm, however, increases as the square of the recombination rate. This acceleration of adaptation by recombination implies a strong evolutionary advantage of sex

Coalescence, genetic diversity in sexual populations under selection

In sexual populations, selection operates neither on the whole genome, which is repeatedly taken apart and reassembled by recombination, nor on individual alleles that are tightly linked to the chromosomal neighborhood. The resulting interference between linked alleles reduces the efficiency of selection and distorts patterns of genetic diversity. Inference of evolutionary history from diversity shaped by linked selection requires an understanding of these patterns. Here, we present a simple but powerful scaling analysis identifying the unit of selection as the genomic "linkage block" with a characteristic length determined in a self-consistent manner by the condition that the rate of recombination within the block is comparable to the fitness differences between different alleles of the block. We find that an asexual model with the strength of selection tuned to that of the linkage block provides an excellent description of genetic diversity and the site frequency spectra when compared to computer simulations. This linkage block approximation is accurate for the entire spectrum of strength of selection and is particularly powerful in scenarios with many weakly selected loci. The latter limit allows us to characterize coalescence, genetic diversity, and the speed of adaptation in the infinitesimal model of quantitative genetics

Order and Stochastic Dynamics in Drosophila Planar Cell Polarity

Cells in the wing blade of Drosophila melanogaster exhibit an in-plane polarization causing distal orientation of hairs. Establishment of the Planar Cell Polarity (PCP) involves intercellular interactions as well as a global orienting signal. Many of the genetic and molecular components underlying this process have been experimentally identified and a recently advanced system-level model has suggested that the observed mutant phenotypes can be understood in terms of intercellular interactions involving asymmetric localization of membrane bound proteins. Among key open questions in understanding the emergence of ordered polarization is the effect of stochasticity and the role of the global orienting signal. These issues relate closely to our understanding of ferromagnetism in physical systems. Here we pursue this analogy to understand the emergence of PCP order. To this end we develop a semi-phenomenological representation of the underlying molecular processes and define a “phase diagram” of the model which provides a global view of the dependence of the phenotype on parameters. We show that the dynamics of PCP has two regimes: rapid growth in the amplitude of local polarization followed by a slower process of alignment which progresses from small to large scales. We discuss the response of the tissue to various types of orienting signals and show that global PCP order can be achieved with a weak orienting signal provided that it acts during the early phase of the process. Finally we define and discuss some of the experimental predictions of the model.Other Research Uni

Genetic Draft and Quasi-Neutrality in Large Facultatively Sexual Populations

Large populations may contain numerous simultaneously segregating polymorphisms subject to natural selection. Since selection acts on individuals whose fitness depends on many loci, different loci affect each other's dynamics. This leads to stochastic fluctuations of allele frequencies above and beyond genetic drift - an effect known as genetic draft. Since recombination disrupts associations between alleles, draft is strong when recombination is rare. Here, we study a facultatively outcrossing population in a regime where the frequency of out-crossing and recombination, r, is small compared to the characteristic scale of fitness differences \sigma. In this regime, fit genotypes expand clonally, leading to large fluctuations in the number of recombinant offspring genotypes. The power law tail in the distribution of the latter makes it impossible to capture the dynamics of draft by an effective neutral model. Instead, we find that the fixation time of a neutral allele increases only slowly with the population size but depends sensitively on the ratio r/\sigma. The efficacy of selection is reduced dramatically and alleles behave "quasi-neutrally" even for Ns>> 1, provided that |s|< s_c, where s_c depends strongly on r/\sigma, but only weakly on population size N. In addition, the anomalous fluctuations due to draft change the spectrum of (quasi)-neutral alleles from f(\nu)\sim 1/\nu, corresponding to drift, to \sim1/\nu^2. Finally, draft accelerates the rate of two step adaptations through deleterious intermediates.Comment: Includes supplement as appendi