Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth System Models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way ANOVA approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times. For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modelled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes, thus we can be more confident in linking different future socio-economic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The apparent agreement in atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modelled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxesMOHC authors were supported by the Joint DECC / Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Cli- mate Programme (GA01101). SY was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University grant “Bayesian Modelling for Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Predictions” (1-ZV9Z). We acknowl- edge use of R software package (R Core Team 2013). We acknowledge the World Climate Re- search Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and we thank the climate modelling groups for providing their GCM output (listed in Table 1). Support of this dataset was provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

The origin of the eccentricity of the hot Jupiter in CI Tau

Following the recent discovery of the first radial velocity planet in a star still possessing a protoplanetary disc (CI Tau), we examine the origin of the planet's eccentricity (e $\sim 0.3$). We show through long timescale ($10^5$ orbits) simulations that the planetary eccentricity can be pumped by the disc, even when its local surface density is well below the threshold previously derived from short timescale integrations. We show that the disc may be able to excite the planet's orbital eccentricity in $<$ a Myr for the system parameters of CI Tau. We also perform two planet scattering experiments and show that alternatively the observed planet may plausibly have acquired its eccentricity through dynamical scattering of a migrating lower mass planet, which has either been ejected from the system or swallowed by the central star. In the latter case the present location and eccentricity of the observed planet can be recovered if it was previously stalled within the disc's magnetospheric cavity.This work has been supported by the DISCSIM project, grant agreement 341137 funded by the European Research Council under ERC-2013-ADG, and from STFC through grant ST/L000636/1. This work used the DIRAC Shared Memory Processing and Data Analytic systems, both at the University of Cambridge and operated, respectively, by the COSMOS Project at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics and the Cambridge High Performance Computing Service, on behalf of the STFC DiRAC HPC Facility (www.dirac.ac.uk). This equipment was funded by BIS National E-infrastructure capital grants ST/J005673/1 and ST/K001590/1, STFC capital grants ST/H008586/1, ST/H008861/1 and ST/H00887X/1, STFC DiRAC Operations grant ST/K00333X/1, and STFC DiRAC Operations grant ST/K00333X/1. DiRAC is part of the National E-Infrastructure.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Oxford University Press via https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slw18

Transfer of gene corrected T cells corrects humoral and cytotoxic defects in X-linked lymphoproliferative disease (XLP1)

BACKGROUND: XLP1 arises from mutations in the SH2D1A gene encoding SAP, an adaptor protein expressed in T, NK and NKT cells. Defects lead to abnormalities of T and NK cell cytotoxicity and T cell dependent humoral function. Clinical manifestations include haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), lymphoma and dysgammaglobulinaemia. Curative treatment is limited to haematopoietic stem cell transplant with outcome reliant on a good donor match. OBJECTIVES: As most symptoms arise from defective T cell function, we investigated whether transfer of SAP gene corrected T cells could reconstitute known effector cell defects. METHODS: CD3+ lymphocytes from sap-deficient mice were transduced with a gammaretroviral vector encoding human SAP cDNA before transfer into sub-lethally irradiated sap-deficient recipients. Following immunisation with the T-dependent antigen NP-CGG, recovery of humoral function was evaluated through germinal centre formation and antigen specific responses. To efficiently transduce patient CD3+ cells, we generated an equivalent lentiviral SAP vector. Functional recovery was demonstrated using in vitro cytotoxicity and TFH cell function assays, alongside tumour clearance in an in vivo LCL lymphoma xenograft model. RESULTS: In sap-deficient mice, 20-40% engraftment of gene modified T cells led to significant recovery of germinal centre formation and NP-specific antibody responses. Gene corrected patient T cells demonstrated improved cytotoxicity and TFH cell function in vitro. Adoptive transfer of gene corrected patient CTLs reduced tumour burden to a level comparable with healthy donor CTLs in an in vivo lymphoma model. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate that autologous T cell gene therapy corrects SAP dependent defects and may offer an alternative therapeutic option for XLP1 patients

Holography at an Extremal De Sitter Horizon

Rotating maximal black holes in four-dimensional de Sitter space, for which the outer event horizon coincides with the cosmological horizon, have an infinite near-horizon region described by the rotating Nariai metric. We show that the asymptotic symmetry group at the spacelike future boundary of the near-horizon region contains a Virasoro algebra with a real, positive central charge. This is evidence that quantum gravity in a rotating Nariai background is dual to a two-dimensional Euclidean conformal field theory. These results are related to the Kerr/CFT correspondence for extremal black holes, but have two key differences: one of the black hole event horizons has been traded for the cosmological horizon, and the near-horizon geometry is a fiber over dS_2 rather than AdS_2.Comment: 15 page

Assessment of the monkfish Lophius vomerinus resource off Namibia

The Lophius vomerinus component of the monkfish resource off Namibia was assessed by means of deterministic length- and age-based models. Steady state length cohort analyses illustrated that, although the model was sensitive to the rate of natural mortality, it was relatively insensitive to changes in terminal fishing mortality. These biases may, however, not be serious provided that estimates of abundance are used to reflect relative changes in the biomass dynamics of the population. The age-structured production model, tuned to trends in General-Linear-Modelling-standardized catch-per-unit-effort data and relative abundance indices calculated from hake (Merluccius spp.) biomass surveys, together with observed commercial and survey catches-at-age, showed similar trends. Both models provided evidence that the monkfish resource was fully to overexploited, with current harvesting levels higher than those concomitant with sustainable yields.Keywords: age-structured production model, length-based cohort analysis, Lophius vomerinus, NamibiaAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2001, 23: 275–29

Quantifying commercial catch and effort of monkfish Lophius vomerinus and L. Vaillanti off Namibia

Abundance and exploitation patterns of monkfish Lophius vomerinus and L. vaillanti were investigated for use as inputs into a stock assessment framework to be used for management of the Namibian monkfish resource. Total numbers of monkfish caught per size-class were estimated using industry records of tail products classified into six commercial categories. The proportions per category varied each year. Analysis of the commercial data suggests that large numbers of juvenile monkfish are harvested annually. Catch-per-unit-effort (cpue) data of vessels targeting monkfish and sole (the two species are combined in terms of Namibian fleet legislation) for the period 1991–1999 were analysed using two different methods to construct indices of abundance. Both indices, one standardized on vessel horsepower and the other standardized by means of a Generalized Linear Model, showed an increase in catch rate of monkfish from 1991 to 1994 and between 1996 and 1998, but a decline from 1994 to 1996 as well as during 1999. Conversion factors for landed or tail weight to whole weight for four different tail products of monkfish were estimated. Results obtained from the study suggest that the factor of 3.04 currently applied in Namibia to all tail-weight classes is not appropriate for the current fishery and needs to be amended. For management purposes it is also suggested that four different conversion factors, one for each monkfish tail product, be implemented.Keywords: catch per unit effort, Generalized Linear Model, Lophius vaillanti, Lophius vomerinus, monkfish, weight conversion factorsAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2001, 23: 291–30

The impact of egg incubation temperature on the personality of oviparous reptiles

Personality traits, defined as differences in the behavior of individual animals of the same species that are consistent over time and context, such as ‘boldness,’ have been shown to be both heritable and be influenced by external factors, such as predation pressure. Currently, we know very little about the role that early environmental factors have upon personality. Thus, we investigated the impact of incubation temperature upon the boldness on an oviparous reptile, the bearded dragon (Pogona vitticeps). Eggs, from one clutch, were incubated at two different average temperatures within the normal range. After hatching the lizards were raised under the same environmental conditions. Novel object and novel environment tests were used to assess personality. Each test was repeated in both the short term and the long term. The results revealed that incubation temperature did impact upon ‘boldness’ but only in the short term and suggests that, rather than influencing personality, incubation temperature may have an effect on the development of behavioral of oviparous reptiles at different stages across ontogeny

A description of gametogenesis in the panga Pterogymnus laniarius (Pisces: Sparidae) with comments on changes in maturity patterns over the past two decades

A description of gametogenesis in the panga Pferogymnus laniarius, a common endemic seabream species inhabiting the Agulhas Bank, South Africa, is presented. After sexual maturity, oogenesis and spermatogenesis continued throughout the year and were found to be similar to these processes in other seabream species and teleosts in general. Analysis of maturity data over the past two decades revealed a significant change in both age and size-at-maturity, a response to fishing pressure.S. Afr. J. Zool. 1997,32(2

Biology of the redspotted tonguesole Cynoglossus Zanzibarensis (Pleuronectiformes: Cynoglossidae) on the Agulhas bank, South Africa

The biology of the redspotted tonguesole Cynoglossus zanzibarensis, a common African cynoglossid inhabiting the Agulhas Bank, South Africa, is described. Growth studies based on sectioned sagittal otoliths revealed that C. zanzibarensis is relatively fast-growing and long-lived, attaining ages >8 years. Growth in length was rapid in immature fish, fish attaining 56% of their maximum size within their first year. By sexual maturity, fish had attained 28% of their maximum age and 68% of their maximum length. Total length-at-age was best described by the Von Bertalanffy growth model with combined-sex growth described as Lt = 354.78(1–e-0.43 (t+1.17)) mm TL. Sexually dimorphic growth patterns were evident, females attaining larger lengths, but at a slower growth rate than males. Despite the similar mean size of adult fish, the trawl-sampled adult population was dominated by females, with a sex ratio of 1 male:2.4 females. Female C. zanzibarensis mature in their second year of life (275 mm TL), after which they spawn small, pelagic eggs throughout the year. Approximations of the rates of total, natural and fishing mortality were estimated to be 0.62, 0.48 and 0.14 year-1 respectively