Revenue and risk of variable renewable electricity investment: The cannibalization effect under high market penetration

Wind and solar power depress market prices at times when they produce the most. This has been termed the ‘cannibalization effect’, and its magnitude has been established within the economic literature on current and future markets. Although it has a substantial impact on the revenue of VRE technologies, the cannibalization effect is neglected in the capital budgeting literature, including portfolio- and real options theory. In this paper, we present an analytical framework that explicitly models the correlation between VRE production and electricity price, based on the production costs of surrounding generation capacity. We derive closed-form expressions for the expected short-term and long-term revenue, the variance of the revenue and the timing of investments. The effect of including these system characteristics is illustrated with numerical examples, where we find the cannibalization effect to decrease projected profit relative to investment cost from 33% to between 13% and −40%, depending on the assumption for the future VRE capacity expansion rate. Using a real options framework, the investment threshold increases by between 13% and 67%, due to the inclusion of cannibalization

Spontaneous CP violation in the NJL model at theta = pi

As is well-known, spontaneous CP-violation in the strong interaction is possible at theta = pi, which is commonly referred to as Dashen's phenomenon. This phenomenon has been studied extensively using chiral Lagrangians. Here the two-flavor NJL model at theta = pi is discussed. It turns out that the occurrence of spontaneous CP-violation depends on the strength of the 't Hooft determinant interaction, which describes the effect of instanton interactions. The dependence of the phase structure, and in particular of the CP-violating phase, on the quark masses, temperature, baryon and isospin chemical potential is examined in detail. The latter dependence shows a modification of the charged pion condensed phase first discussed by Son and Stephanov.Comment: 5 pages, 7 figures; talk given at the 8th Conference "Quark Confinement and the Hadron Spectrum", Mainz, Germany, 1-6 September 200

Extra-planar gas in the spiral galaxy NGC 4559

We present 21-cm line observations of the spiral galaxy NGC 4559, made with the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope. We have used them to study the HI distribution and kinematics, the relative amount and distribution of luminous and dark matter in this galaxy and, in particular, the presence of extra-planar gas. Our data do reveal the presence of such a component, in the form of a thick disk, with a mass of 5.9 x 10^8 Mo (one tenth of the total HI mass) and a mean rotation velocity 25-50 km/s lower than that of the thin disk. The extra-planar gas may be the result of galactic fountains but accretion from the IGM cannot be ruled out. With this study we confirm that lagging, thick HI layers are likely to be common in spiral galaxies.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication in A&

On the etiology of aesthetic chills: a behavioral genetic study

Aesthetic chills, broadly defined as a somatic marker of peak emotional-hedonic responses, are experienced by individuals across a variety of human cultures. Yet individuals vary widely in the propensity of feeling them. These individual differences have been studied in relation to demographics, personality, and neurobiological and physiological factors, but no study to date has explored the genetic etiological sources of variation. To partition genetic and environmental sources of variation in the propensity of feeling aesthetic chills, we fitted a biometrical genetic model to data from 14,127 twins (from 8995 pairs), collected by the Netherlands Twin Register. Both genetic and unique environmental factors accounted for variance in aesthetic chills, with heritability estimated at 0.36 ([0.33, 0.39] 95% CI). We found females more prone than males to report feeling aesthetic chills. However, a test for genotype x sex interaction did not show evidence that heritability differs between sexes. We thus show that the propensity of feeling aesthetic chills is not shaped by nurture alone, but it also reflects underlying genetic propensities

Comparison of N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide and atrial natriuretic peptide in human plasma as measured with commercially available radioimmunoassay kits

Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) has become an important parameter for assessing the condition of patients with cardia disease. Recently, attention has also focused on N-terminal pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (NtproANP) in this context. NtproANP circulates in plasma in higher concentration, is more stable ex vivo, and may be a better parameter for cardiac function over time. We have evaluated a new commercially available radioimmunoassay kit for NtproANP and compared results and method withthose of ANP measurements. The NtproANP kit was found to be reliable and easy to use (no plasma extraction step is necessary), with good reproducibility (coefficients of variation 7-15%). Normal values in 15 healthy laboratory workers, 25 healthy elderly subjects and 25 patients with heart failure were 207 ± 70, 368 ± 134 and 1206 ± 860 pmol/l, respectively, 8.3, 11.8 and 13.0 times higher, respectively, than corresponding ANP concentrations. NtproANP correlated well with ANP (r 0.64-0.78). We conclude that plasma NtproANP measurement may be a good alternative to plasma ANP measurement: technically, it is easier to perform, and NtproANP is more stable in plasma. Whether NtproANP is a better diagnostic and prognostic parameter than ANP remains to be further established

The relationship of school performance with self-control and grit is strongly genetic and weakly causal

The non-cognitive skills self-control and grit are often considered predictors of school performance, but whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. We investigated the causality of this association using a twin design. Specifically, we evaluated the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while controlling for genetic or environmental influences common to all three traits (i.e., confounding). Teachers of 4891 Dutch 12-year-old twin pairs (of which 3837 were complete pairs) completed a survey about school performance (school grades), self-control (ASEBA self-control scale), and the perseverance aspect of grit. Our analysis aimed to determine the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while simultaneously controlling for genetic or environmental confounding. Establishing the regression relationship corrected for confounding supports the interpretation of the regression relationship as causal. In all analyses, we corrected for sex, rater bias of the teachers, and parental socioeconomic status. Initially, in the standard regression, self-control, and grit explained 28.4% of the school performance variance. However, allowing for genetic confounding (due to genetic pleiotropy) revealed that most of this association could be attributed to genetic influences that the three traits share. In the presence of genetic pleiotropy, the phenotypic regression of school performance on self-control and grit accounted for only 4.4% (i.e., the effect size association with the causal hypothesis). In conclusion, self-control and grit predict school performance primarily due to genetic pleiotropy, with a much smaller causal effect (R 2  = 4.4%). This suggests that interventions targeting self-control and grit alone may yield limited improvements in school performance. </p

The relationship of school performance with self-control and grit is strongly genetic and weakly causal

The non-cognitive skills self-control and grit are often considered predictors of school performance, but whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. We investigated the causality of this association using a twin design. Specifically, we evaluated the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while controlling for genetic or environmental influences common to all three traits (i.e., confounding). Teachers of 4891 Dutch 12-year-old twin pairs (of which 3837 were complete pairs) completed a survey about school performance (school grades), self-control (ASEBA self-control scale), and the perseverance aspect of grit. Our analysis aimed to determine the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while simultaneously controlling for genetic or environmental confounding. Establishing the regression relationship corrected for confounding supports the interpretation of the regression relationship as causal. In all analyses, we corrected for sex, rater bias of the teachers, and parental socioeconomic status. Initially, in the standard regression, self-control, and grit explained 28.4% of the school performance variance. However, allowing for genetic confounding (due to genetic pleiotropy) revealed that most of this association could be attributed to genetic influences that the three traits share. In the presence of genetic pleiotropy, the phenotypic regression of school performance on self-control and grit accounted for only 4.4% (i.e., the effect size association with the causal hypothesis). In conclusion, self-control and grit predict school performance primarily due to genetic pleiotropy, with a much smaller causal effect (R 2  = 4.4%). This suggests that interventions targeting self-control and grit alone may yield limited improvements in school performance. </p