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The METAFOR project: preserving data through metadata standards for climate models and simulations
Climate modeling is a complex process, requiring accurate and complete metadata in order to identify, assess and use climate data stored in digital repositories. The preservation of such data is increasingly important given the development of ever-increasingly complex models to predict the effects of global climate change.
The EU METAFOR project has developed a Common
Information Model (CIM) to describe climate data and the models and modelling environments that produce this data. There is a wide degree of variability between different climate models and modelling groups. To accommodate this, the CIM has been designed to be highly generic and flexible, with extensibility built in. METAFOR describes the climate modelling process simply as "an activity undertaken using software on computers to produce data." This process has been described as separate UML packages (and, ultimately, XML schemas). This fairly generic structure canbe paired with more specific "controlled vocabularies" in order to
restrict the range of valid CIM instances.
The CIM will aid digital preservation of climate models as it will provide an accepted standard structure for the model metadata.
Tools to write and manage CIM instances, and to allow
convenient and powerful searches of CIM databases,. Are also
under development. Community buy-in of the CIM has been
achieved through a continual process of consultation with the climate modelling community, and through the METAFOR team’s development of a questionnaire that will be used to collect the metadata for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs
Chapter 11 - Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability
This chapter assesses the scientific literature describing expectations for near-term climate (present through mid-century). Unless otherwise stated, "near-term" change and the projected changes below are for the period 2016-2035 relative to the reference period 1986-2005. Atmospheric composition (apart from CO2; see Chapter 12) and air quality projections through to 2100 are also assessed
Long-term changes in drought indices in eastern and central Europe
This study analyses long-term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3 months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves-Samani (SPEIH) and Penman-Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus and northern Poland. In the rest of study domain, a weak and mostly insignificant decrease prevailed in winter. Summer season (June–August) is characterized by changes in the opposite sign. An increase was observed in the north, while a clear decrease in SPEI, reflecting a drying trend, was typical for the southern regions: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and southern Poland. A general drying tendency revealed also in April, which was statistically significant over a wide area in the Czech Republic and Poland. Increasing trends in SPI and SPEI for September and October were detected in Romania, Moldova and Hungary. The use of SPEI instead of SPI generally enhances drying trends
The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean
salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar
region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful
assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper
1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic
measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in
the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes
in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater
flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary
fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important
role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward
salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of
freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep
convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during
convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity
exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the
MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in
the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is
cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar
front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current
waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification
precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant
82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut
universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE)
and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific
appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged
Multidecadal variability of summer temperature over Romania and its relation with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
We investigate the multidecadal variability of summer temperature over Romania as measured at 14 meteorological stations with long term observational records. The dominant pattern of summer temperature variability has a monopolar structure and shows pronounced multidecadal variations. A correlation analysis reveals that these multidecadal variations are related with multidecadal variations in the frequency of four daily atmospheric circulation patterns from the North Atlantic region. It is found that, on multidecadal time scales, negative summer mean temperature (TT) anomalies are associated with positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies centered over the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean and Scandinavia and negative SLP anomalies centered over the northern part of Africa. It is speculated that a possible cause of multidecadal fluctuations in the frequency of these four patterns are the sea surface temperature anomalies associated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These results have implications for predicting the evolution of summer temperature over Romania on multidecadal time scales