The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks further suggests that trade policy uncertainty dominates tariff level effects. Chinese trade policy shocks against the United States further hurt US stocks.Deutsche Bundesbank http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008450Peer Reviewe

Essays in International Finance, Energy Economics, and Applied Time Series Econometrics

Diese Dissertation beantwortet verschiedene politikrelevante ökonomische Fragen in den Bereichen Handelspolitik, Geldpolitik, sowie Rohstoffmärkte und Energieökonomik mit Hilfe von strukturellen Vektorautoregressionsmodellen (SVAR). SVARs stellen eine effektive Möglichkeit dar, die Beziehungen zwischen verschiedenen makroökonomischen und/oder Finanzmarkt-Variablen zu modellieren und werden verwendet, um die dynamischen kausalen Effekte von ökonomischen Schocks zu schätzen. Für jede ökonomische Fragestellung wird eine Identifikationsstrategie angewandt, die auf die betrachteten Daten und ihre statistischen Eigenschaften sowie die zugrundeliegenden Annahmen über ökonomische Mechanismen zwischen den betrachteten Zeitreihen zugeschnitten ist. Im Einzelnen besteht diese Dissertation aus vier Kapiteln. In den ersten beiden Kapiteln werden die Auswirkungen von Handelspolitik auf Finanzmärkte und auf die Makroökonomie geschätzt. Das dritte Kapitel liefert einen methodischen Beitrag zur SVAR-Literatur, der in einer Anwendung zu den Effekten von Geldpolitik dargestellt wird. Das letzte Kapitel verlässt die Felder der Handels- und Geldpolitik und wendet sich Rohstoffmärkten und der Energiewirtschaft zu, stützt sich dabei aber ebenfalls auf Zeitreihenmethoden. Es analysiert die Rolle von Metallen in der Energiewende.This dissertation answers various policy relevant economic questions in the fields of trade policy, monetary policy, and commodity markets and energy economics using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. SVARs constitute a parsimonious way to model the relations between different macroeconomic and/or financial variables and they are used to estimate the dynamic causal effects of economic shocks. For each economic question, this dissertation applies an identification strategy that is tailored to the relevant data and its statistical properties as well as the underlying assumptions about economic mechanisms among the regarded time series. Specifically, this dissertation consists of four chapters. The first two chapters estimate the effects of trade policy on financial markets and on the macroeconomy. The third chapter makes a methodological contribution to the SVAR literature in an application to monetary policy shocks. The final chapter moves away from trade and monetary policy to commodity markets and energy economics but also relies on time series methods. It analyzes the role of metals for the clean energy transition

6-thioguanine treatment in inflammatory bowel disease: A critical appraisal by a European 6-TG working party

Recently, the suggestion to use 6-thioguanine (6-TG) as an alternative thiopurine in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been discarded due to reports about possible (hepato) toxicity. During meetings arranged in Vienna and Prague in 2004, European experts applying 6-TG further on in IBD patients presented data on safety and efficacy of 6-TG. After thorough evaluation of its risk-benefit ratio, the group consented that 6-TG may still be considered as a rescue drug in stringently defined indications in IBD, albeit restricted to a clinical research setting. As a potential indication for administering 6-TG, we delineated the requirement for maintenance therapy as well as intolerance and/or resistance to aminosalicylates, azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine, methotrexate and infliximab. Furthermore, indications are preferred in which surgery is thought to be inappropriate. The standard 6-TG dosage should not exceed 25 mg daily. Routine laboratory controls are mandatory in short intervals. Liver biopsies should be performed after 6-12 months, three years and then three-yearly accompanied by gastroduodenoscopy, to monitor for potential hepatotoxicity, including nodular regenerative hyperplasia (NRH) and veno-occlusive disease (VOD). Treatment with 6-TG must be discontinued in case of overt or histologically proven hepatotoxicity. Copyright (c) 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel

Assessment techniques, database design and software facilities for thermodynamics and diffusion

The purpose of this article is to give a set of recommendations to producers of assessed thermodynamic data, who may be involved in either the critical evaluation of limited chemical systems or the creation and dissemination of larger thermodynamic databases. Also, it is hoped that reviewers and editors of scientific publications in this field will find some of the information useful. Good practice in the assessment process is essential, particularly as datasets from many different sources may be combined together into a single database. With this in mind, we highlight some problems that can arise during the assessment process and we propose a quality assurance procedure. It is worth mentioning at this point, that the provision of reliable assessed thermodynamic data relies heavily on the availability of high quality experimental information. The different software packages for thermodynamics and diffusion are described here only briefly

Exploiting the fungal highway: development of a novel tool for the in situ isolation of bacteria migrating along fungal mycelium

Fungi and bacteria form various associations that are central to numerous environmental processes. In the so-called fungal highway, bacteria disperse along fungal mycelium. We developed a novel tool for the in situ isolation of bacteria moving along fungal hyphae as well as for the recovery of fungi potentially involved in dispersal, both of which are attracted towards a target culture medium. We present the validation and the results of the first in situ test. Couples of fungi and bacteria were isolated from soil. Amongst the enriched organisms, we identified several species of fast-growing fungi (Fusarium sp. and Chaetomium sp.), as well as various potentially associated bacterial groups, including Variovorax soli, Olivibacter soli, Acinetobacter calcoaceticus, and several species of the genera Stenotrophomonas, Achromobacter and Ochrobactrum. Migration of bacteria along fungal hyphae across a discontinuous medium was confirmed in most of the cases. Although the majority of the bacteria for which migration was confirmed were also positive for flagellar motility, not all motile bacteria dispersed using their potential fungal partner. In addition, the importance of hydrophobicity of the fungal mycelial surface was confirmed. Future applications of the columns include targeting different types of microorganisms and their interactions, either by enrichment or by state of the art molecular biological method

A two-stage approach for the spatio-temporal analysis of high-throughput phenotyping data

High throughput phenotyping (HTP) platforms and devices are increasingly used for the characterization of growth and developmental processes for large sets of plant genotypes. Such HTP data require challenging statistical analyses in which longitudinal genetic signals need to be estimated against a background of spatio-temporal noise processes. We propose a two-stage approach for the analysis of such longitudinal HTP data. In a first stage, we correct for design features and spatial trends per time point. In a second stage, we focus on the longitudinal modelling of the spatially corrected data, thereby taking advantage of shared longitudinal features between genotypes and plants within genotypes. We propose a flexible hierarchical three-level P-spline growth curve model, with plants/plots nested in genotypes, and genotypes nested in populations. For selection of genotypes in a plant breeding context, we show how to extract new phenotypes, like growth rates, from the estimated genotypic growth curves and their first-order derivatives. We illustrate our approach on HTP data from the PhenoArch greenhouse platform at INRAE Montpellier and the outdoor Field Phenotyping platform at ETH Zürich.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation SEV-2017-0718Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung | Ref. project PhenoCOOL (project no. 169542)Horizon 2020 Framework Programme | Ref. grant agreement ID 731013 (EPPN2020)Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | Ref. MTM2017-82379-

Brane-World and Holography

We consider the brane-world in the holographic point of view. Bearing the realistic models in mind, the bulk massless scalar field is introduced. First of all, we find the constraint on the coupling of the scalar fields with the matter(not holographic CFT) on the brane. We show that the traceless part of the energy-momentum tensor of holographic CFT is a part of the bulk Weyl tensor. The trace part which comes from the trace-anomaly is corresponding to the $\rho^2$-term appeared in the generalized FRW equation in the brane-world.Comment: 4 pages, minor change

Orthorhombic versus monoclinic symmetry of the charge-ordered state of NaV2O5

High-resolution X-ray diffraction data show that the low-temperature superstructure of alpha-NaV2O5 has an F-centered orthorhombic 2a x 2b x 4c superlattice. A structure model is proposed, that is characterized by layers with zigzag charge order on all ladders and stacking disorder, such that the averaged structure has space group Fmm2. This model is in accordance with both X-ray scattering and NMR data. Variations in the stacking order and disorder offer an explanation for the recently observed devils staircase of the superlattice period along c.Comment: REVTEX, 4 pages including 2 figures, shortened, submitted to PR

Safety and efficacy of the immunosuppressive agent 6-tioguanine in murine model of acute and chronic colitis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Oral thiopurines are effective and widely used in treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in humans, although their use is limited due the development of adverse events. Here, we examine the efficacy and toxicity of oral treatment with 6-tioguanine (6-TG) and azathioprine (AZA) in a murine model of IBD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We induced acute or chronic colitis in BALB/c mice by one or four cycles of 3% dextran sulphate sodium (DSS), respectively. Mice were treated by daily gavages of various dosages of 6-tioguanine, azathioprine, or by phosphate buffered saline (PBS) starting the first day of DSS or after two cycles of DSS, respectively. We monitored the efficacy and toxicity by measuring the weight change and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activity and by disease severity and histology, at the end of the experiment. Moreover, we measured cytokine production after colon fragment cultivation by enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay and numbers of apoptotic cells in the spleen by flow cytometry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>6-TG is effective in the treatment of acute DSS-induced colitis in a dose-dependent manner and 40 μg of 6-TG is significantly more effective in the treatment of acute colitis than both AZA and PBS. This effect is accompanied by decrease of IL-6 and IFN-γ production in colon. We did not observe histological abnormalities in liver samples from control (PBS) or 6-TG treated mice. However, liver samples from most mice treated with AZA showed mild, yet distinct signs of hepatotoxicity. In chronic colitis, all thiopurine derivatives improved colitis, 20 μg of 6-TG per dose was superior. High doses of 6-TG led to significant weight loss at the end of the therapy, but none of the thiopurine derivatives increased levels of serum ALT. Both thiopurine derivatives reduced the proportion of apoptotic T helper cells, but a high production of both IL-6 and TGF-β was observed only in colon of AZA-treated mice.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Use of 6-TG in the treatment of experimental colitis in mice appears superior to AZA administration and placebo. In contrast to 6-TG, the use of AZA resulted in histological liver abnormalities.</p