An Empirical Examination of Real Options and the Timing of Land Conversions

Many studies have examined the effects of land use regulations on land prices and urban spatial form. Increasingly, jurisdictions have adopted incentive based mechanisms, such as purchase of development rights (PDR) programs, to manage the pace and pattern of urban growth and the conversion of agricultural land. PDR programs provide a third option to landowners in urbanizing areas: in addition to deciding whether to develop or not, landowners can decide whether to preserve their land. To our knowledge no studies have explored how the existence of an option to participate in a PDR program affects landowners' development decisions. This research provides empirical evidence of a previously untested prediction of real options theory: that additional options increase the value of waiting to make irreversible decisions. Our paper considers how an additional land use alternative, preservation, conveys a different type of option value and how that option affects the optimal conversion time. We estimate a hazard model and find significant evidence that the option to enter an easement decreases the hazard rate of development by about 40%. The results suggest that PDR programs can provide additional open space and amenity values beyond what is provided on preserved parcels, by delaying development (by at least a few years) of parcels that are not actually preserved.agricultural preservation programs, real options, land conversion, Land Economics/Use,

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented

Intracisternal delivery of NFκB-inducible scAAV2/9 reveals locoregional neuroinflammation induced by systemic kainic acid treatment.

We have previously demonstrated disease-dependent gene delivery in the brain using an AAV vector responding to NFκB activation as a probe for inflammatory responses. This vector, injected focally in the parenchyma prior to a systemic kainic acid (KA) injection mediated inducible transgene expression in the hippocampus but not in the cerebellum, regions, respectively, known to be affected or not by the pathology. However, such a focal approach relies on previous knowledge of the model parameters and does not allow to predict the whole brain response to the disease. Global brain gene delivery would allow to predict the regional distribution of the pathology as well as to deliver therapeutic factors in all affected brain regions. We show that self-complementary AAV2/9 (scAAV2/9) delivery in the adult rat cisterna magna allows a widespread but not homogenous transduction of the brain. Indeed, superficial regions, i.e., cortex, hippocampus, and cerebellum were more efficiently transduced than deeper regions, such as striatum, and substantia nigra. These data suggest that viral particles penetration from the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) into the brain is a limiting factor. Interestingly, AAV2/9-2YF a rationally designed capsid mutant (affecting surface tyrosines) increased gene transfer efficiency approximately fivefold. Neurons, astrocytes, and oligodendrocytes, but not microglia, were transduced in varying proportions depending on the brain region and the type of capsid. Finally, after a single intracisternal injection of scAAV2/9-2YF using the NFκB-inducible promoter, KA treatment induced transgene expression in the hippocampus and cortex but not in the cerebellum, corresponding to the expression of the CD11b marker of microglial activation. These data support the use of disease-inducible vectors administered in the cisterna magna as a tool to characterize the brain pathology in systemic drug-induced or transgenic disease models. However, further improvements are required to enhance viral particles penetration into the brain

On the growth kinetics of Ni(Pt) silicide thin films

We report on the effect of Pt on the growth kinetics of δ-Ni2Si and Ni 1−xPtxSi thin films formed by solid phase reaction of a Ni(Pt) alloyed thin film on Si(100). The study was performed by real-time Rutherford backscattering spectrometry examining the silicide growth rates for initial Pt concentrations of 0, 1, 3, 7, and 10 at. % relative to the Ni content. Pt was found to exert a drastic effect on the growth kinetics of both phases. δ-Ni2Si growth is slowed down tremendously, which results in the simultaneous growth of this phase with Ni 1−xPtxSi. Activation energies extracted for the Ni 1−xPtxSi growth process exhibit an increase from Ea = 1.35 ± 0.06 eV for binary NiSi to Ea = 2.7 ± 0.2 eV for Ni 1−xPtxSi with an initial Pt concentration of 3 at. %. Further increasing the Pt content to 10 at. % merely increases the activation energy for Ni 1−xPtxSi growth to Ea = 3.1 ± 0.5 eV

Cost-benefit analysis of BIM-enabled design clash detection and resolution

Building Information Modelling (BIM) is increasingly deployed as part of the processes in Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry projects. While the benefits of BIM have been extensively proclaimed, explicit justification in terms of direct cost savings for BIM implementation on real-life projects, particularly for clash detection BIM workstream, are not well documented. This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology to prove how BIM-based clash detection leads to cost savings. A schema is developed based on literature review and industrial expertise to quantify cost savings achieved by the utilisation of BIM-based clash detection and resolution. This paper provides validation of the proposed schema on a major infrastructure project. The developed schema includes the categorisation of identified clashes based on stakeholder involvement and required actions. The validation used the estimated cost of clashes were those not resolved before site operations took place. This schema simplifies both the categorisation and cost estimation of clashes in design. Estimated savings yielded 20% of contract value using the schema, for the multi-million-dollar project case study, thus extending evidence of BIM savings and benefits. The schema improves the existing process and valorises clash detection, thus allowing stakeholders to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. In addition, the categorisation methodology allows prioritising on the most costly clashes, and draw lessons learnt for further projects. This schema opens the path towards a systematic methodology to appraise the benefits of different BIM uses or processes

Public Benefits of Undeveloped Lands on Urban Outskirts: Non-Market Valuation Studies and their Role in Land Use Plans

Over the past three decades, the economics profession has developed methods for estimating the public benefits of green spaces, providing an opportunity to incorporate such information into land-use planning. While federal regulations routinely require such estimates for major regulations, the extent to which they are used in local land use plans is not clear. This paper reviews the literature on public values for lands on urban outskirts, not just to survey their methods or empirical findings, but to evaluate the role they have played--or have the potential to play-- in actual land use plans. Based on interviews with authors and representatives of funding agencies and local land trusts, it appears that academic work has had a mixed reception in the policy world. Reasons for this include a lack of interest in making academic work accessible to policy makers, emphasizing revealed preference methods which are inconsistent with policy priorities related to nonuse values, and emphasis on benefit-cost analyses. Nevertheless, there are examples of success stories that illustrate how such information can play a vital role in the design of conservation policies. Working Paper 07-2

What Price Recreation in Finland?—A Contingent Valuation Study of Non-Market Benefits of Public Outdoor Recreation Areas

Basic services in Finnish national parks and state-owned recreation areas have traditionally been publicly financed and thus free of charge for users. Since the benefits of public recreation are not captured by market demand, government spending on recreation services must be motivated in some other way. Here, we elicit people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for services in the country’s state-owned parks to obtain an estimate of the value of outdoor recreation in monetary terms. A variant of the Tobit model is used in the econometric analysis to examine the WTP responses elicited by a payment card format. We also study who the current users of recreation services are in order to enable policymakers to anticipate the redistribution effects of a potential implementation of user fees. Finally, we discuss the motives for WTP, which reveal concerns such as equity and ability to pay that are relevant for planning public recreation in general and for the introduction of fees in particular

On Combining Stated Preferences and Revealed Preferences Approaches to Evaluate Environmental Resources Having a Recreational Use

This work aims at analysing the value of recreational water uses for the Idro Lake (Lombardy, Northern Italy), which has been experiencing dramatic fluctuations in its levels in recent years, due to excessive productive withdrawal that affected recreational uses. It estimates the economic benefits deriving from recreational uses, by considering the current recreational demand and the hypothetical one obtained by considering an “improved quality” scenario. Through an on-site survey, we built a panel dataset. Following Whitehead et al. (2000) and Hanley et al. (2003) we get welfare estimates by combining SP and RP responses. The present CS is estimated in €134 per individual, whilst the increase in CS is estimated in €173 per individual. These figures can be confronted with the economic value of competitive uses and with the clean up costs, respectively, to infer some policy indications