Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Modulation of LISA free-fall orbits due to the Earth-Moon system

We calculate the effect of the Earth-Moon (EM) system on the free-fall motion of LISA test masses. We show that the periodic gravitational pulling of the EM system induces a resonance with fundamental frequency 1 yr^-1 and a series of periodic perturbations with frequencies equal to integer harmonics of the synodic month (9.92 10^-7 Hz). We then evaluate the effects of these perturbations (up to the 6th harmonics) on the relative motions between each test masses couple, finding that they range between 3mm and 10pm for the 2nd and 6th harmonic, respectively. If we take the LISA sensitivity curve, as extrapolated down to 10^-6 Hz, we obtain that a few harmonics of the EM system can be detected in the Doppler data collected by the LISA space mission. This suggests that the EM system gravitational near field could provide an absolute calibration for the LISA sensitivity at very low frequencies.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure