Toward a Formalism for Conservative Claims about the Dependability of Software-Based Systems

In recent work, we have argued for a formal treatment of confidence about the claims made in dependability cases for software-based systems. The key idea underlying this work is "the inevitability of uncertainty": It is rarely possible to assert that a claim about safety or reliability is true with certainty. Much of this uncertainty is epistemic in nature, so it seems inevitable that expert judgment will continue to play an important role in dependability cases. Here, we consider a simple case where an expert makes a claim about the probability of failure on demand (pfd) of a subsystem of a wider system and is able to express his confidence about that claim probabilistically. An important, but difficult, problem then is how such subsystem (claim, confidence) pairs can be propagated through a dependability case for a wider system, of which the subsystems are components. An informal way forward is to justify, at high confidence, a strong claim, and then, conservatively, only claim something much weaker: "I'm 99 percent confident that the pfd is less than 10-5, so it's reasonable to be 100 percent confident that it is less than 10-3." These conservative pfds of subsystems can then be propagated simply through the dependability case of the wider system. In this paper, we provide formal support for such reasoning

An investigation of Fe XV emission lines in solar flare spectra

Previously, large discrepancies have been found between theory and observation for Fe XV emission line ratios in solar flare spectra covering the 224-327 A wavelength range, obtained by the Naval Research Laboratory's S082A instrument on board Skylab. These discrepancies have been attributed to either errors in the adopted atomic data or the presence of additional atomic processes not included in the modelling, such as fluorescence. However our analysis of these plus other S082A flare observations (the latter containing Fe XV transitions between 321-482 A), performed using the most recent Fe XV atomic physics calculations in conjunction with a CHIANTI synthetic flare spectrum, indicate that blending of the lines is primarily responsible for the discrepancies. As a result, most Fe XV lines cannot be employed as electron density diagnostics for solar flares, at least at the spectral resolution of S082A and similar instruments (i.e. ~ 0.1 A). An exception is the intensity ratio I(321.8 A)/I(327.0 A), which appears to provide good estimates of the electron density at this spectral resolution.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics, in pres

Microglial activity in people at ultra high risk of psychosis and in schizophrenia; an [11C]PBR28 PET brain imaging study

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether microglial activity, measured using translocator-protein positron emission tomography (PET) imaging, is increased in unmedicated persons presenting with subclinical symptoms indicating that they are at ultra high risk of psychosis and to determine whether microglial activity is elevated in schizophrenia after controlling for a translocator-specific genetic polymorphism. Method: The authors used the second-generation radioligand [11C]PBR28 and PET to image microglial activity in the brains of participants at ultra high risk for psychosis. Participants were recruited from early intervention centers. The authors also imaged a cohort of patients with schizophrenia and matched healthy subjects for comparison. In total, 56 individuals completed the study. At screening, participants were genotyped to account for the rs6971 polymorphism in the gene encoding the 18Kd translocator protein. The main outcome measure was total gray matter [11C]PBR28 binding ratio, representing microglial activity. Results: [11C]PBR28 binding ratio in gray matter was elevated in ultra-high-risk participants compared with matched comparison subjects (Cohen’s d >1.2) and was positively correlated with symptom severity (r=0.730). Patients with schizophrenia also demonstrated elevated microglial activity relative to matched comparison subjects (Cohen’s d >1.7). Conclusions: Microglial activity is elevated in patients with schizophrenia and in persons with subclinical symptoms who are at ultra high risk of psychosis and is related to at-risk symptom severity. These findings suggest that neuroinflammation is linked to the risk of psychosis and related disorders, as well as the expression of subclinical symptoms

Contrasting photosynthetic characteristics of forest vs. savanna species (Far North Queensland, Australia)

Forest and savanna are the two dominant vegetation types of the tropical regions with very few tree species common to both. At a broad scale, it has long been recognised that the distributions of these two biomes are principally governed by precipitation and its seasonality, but with soil physical and chemical properties also potentially important. For tree species drawn from a range of forest and savanna sites in tropical Far North Queensland, Australia, we compared leaf traits of photosynthetic capacity, structure and nutrient concentrations. Area-based photosynthetic capacity was higher for the savanna species with a steeper slope to the photosynthesis ← nitrogen (N) relationship compared with the forest group. Higher leaf mass per unit leaf area for the savanna trees derived from denser rather than thicker leaves and did not appear to restrict rates of light-saturated photosynthesis when expressed on either an area or mass basis. Median ratios of foliar N to phosphorus (P) were relatively high (>20) at all sites, but we found no evidence for a dominant P limitation of photosynthesis for either forest or savanna trees. A parsimonious mixed-effects model of area-based photosynthetic capacity retained vegetation type and both N and P as explanatory terms. Resulting model-fitted predictions suggested a good fit to the observed data (R2 Combining double low line 0.82). The model's random component found variation in area-based photosynthetic response to be much greater among species (71% of response variance) than across sites (9%). These results suggest that, on a leaf-area basis, savanna trees of Far North Queensland, Australia, are capable of photosynthetically outperforming forest species at their common boundaries.This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (reference NE/F002165/1), a Royal Society of London UK–Australia Exchange Award to Jon Lloyd, and the Australian Research Council (reference DP0986823)

The mechanism of RNA base fraying: Molecular dynamics simulations analyzed with core-set Markov state models

The process of RNA base fraying (i.e., the transient opening of the termini of a helix) is involved in many aspects of RNA dynamics. We here use molecular dynamics simulations and Markov state models to characterize the kinetics of RNA fraying and its sequence and direction dependence. In particular, we first introduce a method for determining biomolecular dynamics employing core-set Markov state models constructed using an advanced clustering technique. The method is validated on previously reported simulations. We then use the method to analyze extensive trajectories for four different RNA model duplexes. Results obtained using D. E. Shaw research and AMBER force fields are compared and discussed in detail and show a non-trivial interplay between the stability of intermediate states and the overall fraying kinetics

A Pluralistic Theory of Wordhood

What are words and how should we individuate them? There are two main answers on the philosophical market. For some, words are bundles of structural-functional features defining a unique performance profile. For others, words are non-eternal continuants individuated by their causal-historical ancestry. These conceptions offer competing views of the nature of words, and it seems natural to assume that at most one of them can capture the essence of wordhood. This paper makes a case for pluralism about wordhood: the view that there is a plurality of acceptable conceptions of the nature of words, none of which is uniquely entitled to inform us as to what wordhood consists in

Nonparametric directionality measures for time series and point process data

The need to determine the directionality of interactions between neural signals is a key requirement for analysis of multichannel recordings. Approaches most commonly used are parametric, typically relying on autoregressive models. A number of concerns have been expressed regarding parametric approaches, thus there is a need to consider alternatives. We present an alternative nonparametric approach for construction of directionality measures for bivariate random processes. The method combines time and frequency domain representations of bivariate data to decompose the correlation by direction. Our framework generates two sets of complementary measures, a set of scalar measures, which decompose the total product moment correlation coefficient summatively into three terms by direction and a set of functions which decompose the coherence summatively at each frequency into three terms by direction: forward direction, reverse direction and instantaneous interaction. It can be undertaken as an addition to a standard bivariate spectral and coherence analysis, and applied to either time series or point-process (spike train) data or mixtures of the two (hybrid data). In this paper, we demonstrate application to spike train data using simulated cortical neurone networks and application to experimental data from isolated muscle spindle sensory endings subject to random efferent stimulation

Renminbi Internationalisation: Precedents and Implications

While it is commonly assumed that there are no known precedents against which to benchmark the internationalisation of the Renminbi (RMB), this paper argues that the PRCs own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. In particular it indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s developed financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise receipts from foreign trade as well as minimise the risks of undue swings in capital flows. The paper shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions and as such Hong Kong’s role in mitigating the risk of undue capital swings remains

Defining forgiveness: Christian clergy and general population perspectives.

The lack of any consensual definition of forgiveness is a serious weakness in the research literature (McCullough, Pargament &amp; Thoresen, 2000). As forgiveness is at the core of Christianity, this study returns to the Christian source of the concept to explore the meaning of forgiveness for practicing Christian clergy. Comparisons are made with a general population sample and social science definitions of forgiveness to ensure that a shared meaning of forgiveness is articulated. Anglican and Roman Catholic clergy (N = 209) and a general population sample (N = 159) completed a postal questionnaire about forgiveness. There is agreement on the existence of individual differences in forgiveness. Clergy and the general population perceive reconciliation as necessary for forgiveness while there is no consensus within psychology. The clergy suggests that forgiveness is limitless and that repentance is unnecessary while the general population suggests that there are limits and that repentance is necessary. Psychological definitions do not conceptualize repentance as necessary for forgiveness and the question of limits has not been addressed although within therapy the implicit assumption is that forgiveness is limitless.</p