Global ocean modeling and state estimation in support of climate research

During the last decade it has become obvious that the ocean circulation shows vigorous variability on a wide range of time and space scales and that the concept of a "sluggish" and slowly varying circulation is rather elusive. Increasing emphasis has to be put, therefore, on observing the rapidly changing ocean state on time scales ranging from weeks to decades and beyond, and on understanding the ocean's response to changing atmospheric forcing conditions. As outlined in various strategy and implementation documents (e.g., the implementation plans of WOCE, AMS, CLIVAR, and GODAE) a combination of the global ocean data sets with a state-of-the-art numerical circulation model is required to interpret the various diverse data sets and to produce the best possible estimates of the time-varying ocean circulation. The mechanism of ocean state estimates is a powerful tool for such a "synthesis" of observations, obtained on very complex space-time pattern, into one dynamically consistent picture of the global time-evolving ocean circulation. This process has much in common with ongoing analysis and reanalysis activities in the atmospheric community. But because the ocean is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, substantially under-sampled, the burden put on the modeling and estimations components is substantially larger than in the atmosphere. Moreover, the smaller dynamical eddy scales which need to be properly parameterized or resolved in ocean model simulations, put stringent requirements on computational resources for ongoing and participated climate research

Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part II: Probabilistic and Deterministic Forecast Skill

Subseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly using a four-member time-lagged ensemble over the 16-yr period 19992014. Systematic biases in forecasts by the coupled system, referred to as FIMiHYCOM, are described in a companion paper (Part I). This present study (Part II) assesses probabilistic and deterministic model skill for predictions of surface temperature, precipitation, and 500-hPa geopotential height in different seasons at different lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The coupled model appears to have reasonable agreement with reanalysis in terms of simulated weekly variability in sea surface temperatures, except in extratropical regions because the ocean model cannot explicitly resolve eddies there. This study also describes the ability of the model to simulate midlatitude tropospheric blocking frequency, MaddenJulian oscillation patterns, and sudden stratospheric warming eventsall of which have been shown to be relevant on subseasonal time scales. The metrics used here indicate that the subseasonal forecast skill of the model is comparable to that of several operational models, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAAs) operational Climate Forecast System version 2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Therefore, FIMiHYCOMas a participant in NOAAs Subseasonal Experimentis expected to add value to multimodel ensemble forecasts produced through this effort

Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part I: Model Overview and Evaluation of Systematic Errors

The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structurea quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid rendition of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) was developed and coupled to FIM. By sharing a common horizontal mesh, airsea fluxes between the two models are conserved locally and globally. Both models use similar adaptive hybrid vertical coordinates. Another unique aspect of the coupled model (referred to as FIMiHYCOM) is the use of the GrellFreitas scale-aware convective scheme in the atmosphere. A multiyear retrospective study is necessary to demonstrate the potential usefulness and allow for immediate bias correction of a subseasonal prediction model. In these two articles, results are shown based on a 16-yr period of hindcasts from FIMiHYCOM, which has been providing real-time forecasts out to a lead time of 4 weeks for NOAAs Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) starting July 2017. Part I provides an overview of FIMiHYCOM and compares its systematic errors at subseasonal time scales to those of NOAAs operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Part II uses bias-corrected hindcasts to assess both deterministic and probabilistic subseasonal skill of FIMiHYCOM. FIMiHYCOM has smaller biases than CFSv2 for some fields (including precipitation) and comparable biases for other fields (including sea surface temperature). FIMiHYCOM also has less drift in bias between weeks 1 and 4 than CFSv2. The unique grid structure and physics suite of FIMiHYCOM is expected to add diversity to multimodel ensemble forecasts at subseasonal time scales in SubX

The turbulent oscillator : a mechanism of low-frequency variability of the wind-driven ocean gyres

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography. 37 (2007): 2363-2386, doi:10.1175/jpo3118.1.Intrinsic low-frequency variability is studied in the idealized, quasigeostrophic, midlatitude, wind-driven ocean gyres operating at large Reynolds number. A robust decadal variability mode driven by the transient mesoscale eddies is found and analyzed. The variability is a turbulent phenomenon, which is driven by the competition between the eddy rectification process and the potential vorticity anomalies induced by changes of the intergyre transportFunding for Pavel Berloff was provided by NSF Grants OCE-0091836 and OCE- 0344094, by the U.K. Royal Society Fellowship, and by the Newton Trust Award, A. M. Hogg was supported by an Australian Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship (DP0449851) during this work, and William K. Dewar was supported by NSF Grants OCE-0424227 and OCE-0550139

NO2 inhalation induces maturation of pulmonary CD11c+ cells that promote antigenspecific CD4+ T cell polarization

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) is an air pollutant associated with poor respiratory health, asthma exacerbation, and an increased likelihood of inhalational allergies. NO₂is also produced endogenously in the lung during acute inflammatory responses. NO₂can function as an adjuvant, allowing for allergic sensitization to an innocuous inhaled antigen and the generation of an antigen-specific Th2 immune response manifesting in an allergic asthma phenotype. As CD11c⁺antigen presenting cells are considered critical for naïve T cell activation, we investigated the role of CD11c⁺cells in NO₂-promoted allergic sensitization.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We systemically depleted CD11c⁺cells from transgenic mice expressing a simian diphtheria toxin (DT) receptor under of control of the CD11c promoter by administration of DT. Mice were then exposed to 15 ppm NO₂followed by aerosolized ovalbumin to promote allergic sensitization to ovalbumin and were studied after subsequent inhaled ovalbumin challenges for manifestation of allergic airway disease. In addition, pulmonary CD11c⁺cells from wildtype mice were studied after exposure to NO₂and ovalbumin for cellular phenotype by flow cytometry and <it>in vitro </it>cytokine production.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Transient depletion of CD11c⁺cells during sensitization attenuated airway eosinophilia during allergen challenge and reduced Th2 and Th17 cytokine production. Lung CD11c⁺cells from wildtype mice exhibited a significant increase in MHCII, CD40, and OX40L expression 2 hours following NO₂exposure. By 48 hours, CD11c⁺MHCII⁺DCs within the mediastinal lymph node (MLN) expressed maturation markers, including CD80, CD86, and OX40L. CD11c⁺CD11b^-and CD11c⁺CD11b⁺pulmonary cells exposed to NO₂<it>in vivo </it>increased uptake of antigen 2 hours post exposure, with increased ova-Alexa 647⁺CD11c⁺MHCII⁺DCs present in MLN from NO₂-exposed mice by 48 hours. Co-cultures of ova-specific CD4⁺T cells from naïve mice and CD11c⁺pulmonary cells from NO₂-exposed mice produced IL-1, IL-12p70, and IL-6 <it>in vitro </it>and augmented antigen-induced IL-5 production.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CD11c⁺cells are critical for NO₂-promoted allergic sensitization. NO₂exposure causes pulmonary CD11c⁺cells to acquire a phenotype capable of increased antigen uptake, migration to the draining lymph node, expression of MHCII and co-stimulatory molecules required to activate naïve T cells, and secretion of polarizing cytokines to shape a Th2/Th17 response.</p