The effects of trawling and primary production on size-structured food webs in seabed ecosystems

Understanding how different drivers shape relationships between abundance and body mass (size spectra) is important for understanding trophic and competitive interactions in food webs and for predicting the effects of human pressures. Here, we sample seabed communities from small polychaetes (1 kg) in the Celtic Sea and the western English Channel to examine how bottom trawling and primary production affect their size spectra and to compare these with predictions from a model that couples predator and detritivore communities. Size spectra were not well approximated by linear fits because of truncation of the size spectra of detritivores. Low primary production resulted in lower abundance of benthic fauna. Bottom trawling reduced the abundance of predators and large detritivores but allowed small detritivores to increase in abundance. These empirical size spectra were partly consistent with predictions from the size spectra model, showing that understanding the structuring of benthic communities requires a consideration of both size and functional group. The findings highlight the need for an ecosystem approach to understanding the effects of exploitation and climate change on marine ecosystems

Classes of Multiple Decision Functions Strongly Controlling FWER and FDR

This paper provides two general classes of multiple decision functions where each member of the first class strongly controls the family-wise error rate (FWER), while each member of the second class strongly controls the false discovery rate (FDR). These classes offer the possibility that an optimal multiple decision function with respect to a pre-specified criterion, such as the missed discovery rate (MDR), could be found within these classes. Such multiple decision functions can be utilized in multiple testing, specifically, but not limited to, the analysis of high-dimensional microarray data sets.Comment: 19 page

“I did not see a need to get tested before, everything was going well with my health”: a qualitative study of HIV-testing decision-making in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

Few studies have examined HIV-testing decision-making since the South African national HIV counseling and testing campaign in 2010–2011 and subsequent expansion in antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility in 2012. We describe HIV-testing decision-making and pathways to testing among participants in Pathways to Care, a cohort study of newly-diagnosed HIV-positive adults in KwaZulu-Natal. Our analysis is embedded within a theoretical framework informed by Arthur Kleinman’s work on pluralistic healthcare systems, and the concept of diagnostic itineraries (i.e., the route taken to HIV testing). We conducted 26 semi-structured interviews in 2012, within one month of participants’ diagnosis. Most (n = 22) deferred testing until they had developed symptoms, and then often sought recourse in non-biomedical settings. Of the eleven symptomatic participants who accessed professional medical services prior to testing, only three reported that a healthcare professional had offered or recommended an HIV test. Although ART emerged as an important motivator, offering hope of health and normalcy, fear of death and HIV-related stigma remained key barriers. Despite national policy changes in testing and treatment, health system and individual factors contributed to ongoing high levels of late diagnosis of HIV in this study population. Encouraging local health systems to direct clients toward HIV testing, and continuing to raise awareness of the benefits of routine testing remain important strategies to reduce delayed diagnoses

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change

Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

The Mechanisms of Codon Reassignments in Mitochondrial Genetic Codes

Many cases of non-standard genetic codes are known in mitochondrial genomes. We carry out analysis of phylogeny and codon usage of organisms for which the complete mitochondrial genome is available, and we determine the most likely mechanism for codon reassignment in each case. Reassignment events can be classified according to the gain-loss framework. The gain represents the appearance of a new tRNA for the reassigned codon or the change of an existing tRNA such that it gains the ability to pair with the codon. The loss represents the deletion of a tRNA or the change in a tRNA so that it no longer translates the codon. One possible mechanism is Codon Disappearance, where the codon disappears from the genome prior to the gain and loss events. In the alternative mechanisms the codon does not disappear. In the Unassigned Codon mechanism, the loss occurs first, whereas in the Ambiguous Intermediate mechanism, the gain occurs first. Codon usage analysis gives clear evidence of cases where the codon disappeared at the point of the reassignment and also cases where it did not disappear. Codon disappearance is the probable explanation for stop to sense reassignments and a small number of reassignments of sense codons. However, the majority of sense to sense reassignments cannot be explained by codon disappearance. In the latter cases, by analysis of the presence or absence of tRNAs in the genome and of the changes in tRNA sequences, it is sometimes possible to distinguish between the Unassigned Codon and Ambiguous Intermediate mechanisms. We emphasize that not all reassignments follow the same scenario and that it is necessary to consider the details of each case carefully.Comment: 53 pages (45 pages, including 4 figures + 8 pages of supplementary information). To appear in J.Mol.Evo