Modular House Restoration

The aim of this senior project is to help restore the vitality of Poly Canyon by continuing the renovation of the Modular House. The Modular house was originally built in 1969 as living quarters for caretakers of Poly Canyon. The two-story structure was built as a series of 8 foot (ft.) by 8 ft. wall, floor and ceiling frames in a 2x3 bay floor plan. The 8 ft squares were filled with 2 standard sized 4 ft. by 8 ft. plywood sheets. Since its original construction, triangular expansions have been added to the floor plan of the original layout. Also, in the early 2000’s, street signs were added as cladding for weatherproofing. Soon after the College of Architecture and Environmental Design could no longer afford to have caretakers living in the structures, the Modular House fell into disrepair from disuse and vandalism, forcing the structure to be closed off to public access. A senior project group in Spring 2017 did a sizable amount of work to renovate the structure and reopen the Modular House to the public. The 2017 group removed the walls and floors. The ground floor was replaced with concrete on metal decking, and the ground floor walls were replaced with a perimeter guardrail. The guardrail reused the old street-sign cladding as infill to help maintain the architectural integrity of the structure. Two critical issues were needed to be addressed after the work by the 2017 group. The first issue is that the new concrete floor contained a 2 ft. by 8 ft. opening in the transition to a bay set 2 ft below the main ground floor elevation and a similar 2 ft.-7 in. by 2 ft. opening in the transition to a bay set 2 ft. above the main ground floor elevation. Plans for staircases to bridge these gaps were made by the 2017 group, but were not carried out. The openings allow a fall over 3 ft. and the public was allowed to enter the structure after the completion of the 2017 renovations, so the openings in the floor posed a safety hazard. The second issue was the weathering of the existing ceiling. Because the walls were removed, the existing acoustical tile ceiling began to degrade from the elements. The exposure caused the tiles to start to fall. This posed another risk to occupants, since the tiles could strike the occupant from above. The main focus of this senior project was to mitigate the immediate risks that afflicted the Modular House. Specific ways the problems were addressed include: Fabrication and installation of main floor stairs. Fabrication and Installation of an additional railings. Demolition of the existing roof and replacement with corrugated metal decking. This construction will help increase the safety of the structure by covering existing openings in the floor with stairs to transition between floor levels and alleviate fall hazards. A handrail accompanies the larger staircase and an additional guardrail acts as a barrier between lines of elevation change. The demolition of the existing roof structure directly removes the tile ceiling hazard

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent has created a pressing need for accurate seasonal predictions of regional summer sea ice. Recent work has shown evidence for an Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier, which may impose a sharp limit on regional forecasts initialized prior to spring. However, the physical mechanism for this barrier has remained elusive. In this work, we perform a daily sea ice mass (SIM) budget analysis in large ensemble experiments from two global climate models to investigate the mechanisms that underpin the spring predictability barrier. We find that predictability is limited in winter months by synoptically driven SIM export and negative feedbacks from sea ice growth. The spring barrier results from a sharp increase in predictability at melt onset, when ice‐albedo feedbacks act to enhance and persist the preexisting export‐generated mass anomaly. These results imply that ice thickness observations collected after melt onset are particularly critical for summer Arctic sea ice predictions

Parameter uncertainty of a dynamic multispecies size spectrum model

Dynamic size spectrum models have been recognized as an effective way of describing how size-based interactions can give rise to the size structure of aquatic communities. They are intermediate-complexity ecological models that are solutions to partial differential equations driven by the size-dependent processes of predation, growth, mortality, and reproduction in a community of interacting species and sizes. To be useful for quantitative fisheries management these models need to be developed further in a formal statistical framework. Previous work has used time-averaged data to “calibrate” the model using optimization methods with the disadvantage of losing detailed time-series information. Using a published multispecies size spectrum model parameterized for the North Sea comprising 12 interacting fish species and a background resource, we fit the model to time-series data using a Bayesian framework for the first time. We capture the 1967–2010 period using annual estimates of fishing mortality rates as input to the model and time series of fisheries landings data to fit the model to output. We estimate 38 key parameters representing the carrying capacity of each species and background resource, as well as initial inputs of the dynamical system and errors on the model output. We then forecast the model forward to evaluate how uncertainty propagates through to population- and community-level indicators under alternative management strategies

Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems

Early warning signals (EWSs) offer the hope that patterns observed in data can predict the future states of ecological systems. While a large body of research identifies such signals prior to the collapse of populations, the prediction that such signals should also be present before a system's recovery has thus far been overlooked. We assess whether EWSs are present prior to the recovery of overexploited marine systems using a trait-based ecological model and analysis of real-world fisheries data. We show that both abundance and trait-based signals are independently detectable prior to the recovery of stocks, but that combining these two signals provides the best predictions of recovery. This work suggests that the efficacy of conservation interventions aimed at restoring systems which have collapsed may be predicted prior to the recovery of the system, with direct relevance for conservation planning and policy

Increasing the Problem-Solving Skills of Students with Developmental Disabilities Participating in General Education

Although skill in problem solving is critical to success In school and the community, as well as to promoting student self-determination, problem solving remains a neglected curriculum area for students with developmental disabilities. Using the self-determined learning model, 4 students with mental retardation or developmental disabilities were taught problem-solving skills to achieve self-set goals. A multiple-baseline-across-participants design was used, and the instruction was provided in general education content classes. Target behaviors included Increasing appropriate touching, increasing contributions to class discussion, and increasing direction following. Data revealed immediate and dramatic changes for all participants, with performance levels maintained at 10096. Anecdotal social validation data supported the findings. The implications of these findings in respect to promoting self-determination and inclusive practice are discussed

Whole-Genome Sequencing and Concordance Between Antimicrobial Susceptibility Genotypes and Phenotypes of Bacterial Isolates Associated with Bovine Respiratory Disease.

Extended laboratory culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing timelines hinder rapid species identification and susceptibility profiling of bacterial pathogens associated with bovine respiratory disease, the most prevalent cause of cattle mortality in the United States. Whole-genome sequencing offers a culture-independent alternative to current bacterial identification methods, but requires a library of bacterial reference genomes for comparison. To contribute new bacterial genome assemblies and evaluate genetic diversity and variation in antimicrobial resistance genotypes, whole-genome sequencing was performed on bovine respiratory disease-associated bacterial isolates (Histophilus somni, Mycoplasma bovis, Mannheimia haemolytica, and Pasteurella multocida) from dairy and beef cattle. One hundred genomically distinct assemblies were added to the NCBI database, doubling the available genomic sequences for these four species. Computer-based methods identified 11 predicted antimicrobial resistance genes in three species, with none being detected in M. bovis While computer-based analysis can identify antibiotic resistance genes within whole-genome sequences (genotype), it may not predict the actual antimicrobial resistance observed in a living organism (phenotype). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing on 64 H. somni, M. haemolytica, and P. multocida isolates had an overall concordance rate between genotype and phenotypic resistance to the associated class of antimicrobials of 72.7% (P < 0.001), showing substantial discordance. Concordance rates varied greatly among different antimicrobial, antibiotic resistance gene, and bacterial species combinations. This suggests that antimicrobial susceptibility phenotypes are needed to complement genomically predicted antibiotic resistance gene genotypes to better understand how the presence of antibiotic resistance genes within a given bacterial species could potentially impact optimal bovine respiratory disease treatment and morbidity/mortality outcomes