Feeding 10 Billion People in 2050: The Key Role of the CGIAR's International Agricultural Research Centers

Report from the US based Action Group on Food Security consisting of Robert O. Blake as Chairman, David E. Bell, Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Robert S. McNamara, and M. Peter McPherson. The report, written principally by Montague Yudelman, stresses the importance of international agricultural research for food security and the need for increased financial support to this research and the CGIAR in particular. It also proposes changes in the management and governance of the CGIAR. Annexes detail the funding gap in CGIAR core programs.Agenda document, CGIAR Mid Term Meeting, May 1994

Atmospheric O2/N2 changes, 1993-2002: Implications for the partitioning of fossil fuel CO2 sequestration

Improvements made to an established mass spectrometric method for measuring changes in atmospheric O2/N2 are described. With the improvements in sample handling and analysis, sample throughput and analytical precision have both increased. Aliquots from duplicate flasks are repeatedly measured over a period of 2 weeks, with an overall standard error in each flask of 3-4 per meg, corresponding to 0.6-0.8 ppm O2 in air. Records of changes in O2/N2 from six global sampling stations (Barrow, American Samoa, Cape Grim, Amsterdam Island, Macquarie Island, and Syowa Station) are presented. Combined with measurements Of CO2 from the same sample flasks, land and ocean carbon uptake were calculated from the three sampling stations with the longest records (Barrow, Samoa, and Cape Grim). From 1994-2002, We find the average CO2 uptake by the ocean and the land biosphere was 1.7 ± 0.5 and 1.0 ± 0.6 GtC yr -1 respectively; these numbers include a correction of 0.3 Gt C yr-l due to secular outgassing of ocean O2. Interannual variability calculated from these data shows a strong land carbon source associated with the 1997-1998 El Niño event, supporting many previous studies indicating that high atmospheric growth rates observed during most El Niño events reflect diminished land uptake. Calculations of interannual variability in land and ocean uptake are probably confounded by non-zero annual air sea fluxes of O2. The origin of these fluxes is not yet understood. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

Boreal Forest Fire Emissions in Fresh Canadian Smoke Plumes: C-1-C-10 Volatile Organic Compounds (Vocs), Co2, Co, No2, No, Hcn and Ch3Cn

Boreal regions comprise about 17% of the global land area, and they both affect and are influenced by climate change. To better understand boreal forest fire emissions and plume evolution, 947 whole air samples were collected aboard the NASA DC-8 research aircraft in summer 2008 as part of the ARCTAS-B field mission, and analyzed for 79 non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) using gas chromatography. Together with simultaneous measurements of CO2, CO, CH4, CH2O, NO2, NO, HCN and CH3CN, these measurements represent the most comprehensive assessment of trace gas emissions from boreal forest fires to date. Based on 105 air samples collected in fresh Canadian smoke plumes, 57 of the 80 measured NMVOCs (including CH2O) were emitted from the fires, including 45 species that were quantified from boreal forest fires for the first time. After CO2, CO and CH4, the largest emission factors (EFs) for individual species were formaldehyde (2.1 +/- 0.2 g kg(-1)), followed by methanol, NO2, HCN, ethene, alpha-pinene, beta-pinene, ethane, benzene, propene, acetone and CH3CN. Globally, we estimate that boreal forest fires release 2.4 +/- 0.6 TgC yr(-1) in the form of NMVOCs, with approximately 41% of the carbon released as C-1-C-2 NMVOCs and 21% as pinenes. These are the first reported field measurements of monoterpene emissions from boreal forest fires, and we speculate that the pinenes, which are relatively heavy molecules, were detected in the fire plumes as the result of distillation of stored terpenes as the vegetation is heated. Their inclusion in smoke chemistry models is expected to improve model predictions of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. The fire-averaged EF of dichloromethane or CH2Cl2, (6.9 +/- 8.6) x 10(-4) g kg(-1), was not significantly different from zero and supports recent findings that its global biomass burning source appears to have been overestimated. Similarly, we found no evidence for emissions of chloroform (CHCl3) or methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) from boreal forest fires. The speciated hydrocarbon measurements presented here show the importance of carbon released by short-chain NMVOCs, the strong contribution of pinene emissions from boreal forest fires, and the wide range of compound classes in the most abundantly emitted NMVOCs, all of which can be used to improve biomass burning inventories in local/global models and reduce uncertainties in model estimates of trace gas emissions and their impact on the atmosphere

2021 State of the Commonwealth Report

This is Old Dominion University’s seventh annual State of the Commonwealth Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, its president, Brian O. Hemphill, Ph.D., the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. With the 2021 election in the rearview mirror, the question now becomes: Where does Virginia go from here? Our work seeks to contribute to this conversation without glossing over the challenges we face. We want to encourage the difficult conversations to help Virginia improve the outcomes for all its residents in the coming years

2022 State of the Commonwealth Report

This is Old Dominion University’s eighth annual State of the Commonwealth Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, its president, Brian O. Hemphill, Ph.D., the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Our work seeks to contribute to the conversation about how Virginia can foster growth across the Commonwealth over the coming decade without glossing over the challenges we face. Instead of retreating into partisan enclaves where affirmation is sought instead of information, we want to encourage difficult conversations to improve economic outcomes for all of Virginia’s residents

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals.Assess whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics.A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings.We conclude the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients, and would also advance the science of decision analysis.We advance four recommendations: (1) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts

Limitations and potentials of dual-purpose cow herds in Central Coastal Veracruz, Mexico

Feed chemical and kinetic composition and animal performance information was used to evaluate productivity limitations and potentials of dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. The Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0) was systematically applied to specific groups of cows in structured simulations to establish probable input–output relationships for typical management, and to estimate probable outcomes from alternative management based on forage-based dietary improvements. Key herd vulnerabilities were pinpointed: chronic energy deficits among dry cows of all ages in late gestation and impeded growth for immature cows. Regardless of the forage season of calving, most cows, if not all, incur energy deficits in the final trimester of gestation; thus reducing the pool of tissue energy and constraining milking performance. Under typical management, cows are smaller and underweight for their age, which limits feed intake capacity, milk production and the probability of early postpartum return to ovarian cyclicity. The substitution of good-quality harvested forage for grazing increased predicted yields by about one-third over typical scenarios for underweight cows. When diets from first parturition properly supported growth and tissue repletion, milk production in second and third lactations was predicted to improve about 60%. Judiciously supplemented diets based on good quality grass and legume forages from first calving were predicted to further increase productivity by about 80% across a three-lactation cow lifetime. These dual-purpose herd owners have large incentives to increase sales income by implementing nutritional strategies like those considered in this study

Economic analysis of alternative nutritional management of dual-purpose cow herds in central coastal Veracruz, Mexico

Market information was combined with predicted input–output relationships in an economic analysis of alternative nutritional management for dual-purpose member herds of the Genesis farmer organization of central coastal Veracruz, Mexico. Cow productivity outcomes for typical management and alternative feeding scenarios were obtained from structured sets of simulations in a companion study of productivity limitations and potentials using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System model (Version 6.0). Partial budgeting methods and sensitivity analysis were used to identify economically viable alternatives based on expected change in milk income over feed cost (change in revenues from milk sales less change in feed costs). Herd owners in coastal Veracruz have large economic incentives, from $584 to$1,131 in predicted net margin, to increase milk sales by up to 74% across a three-lactation cow lifetime by improving diets based on good quality grass and legume forages. This increment is equal to, or exceeds, in value the total yield from at least one additional lactation per cow lifetime. Furthermore, marginal rates of return (change in milk income over feed costs divided by change in variable costs when alternative practices are used) of 3.3 ± 0.8 indicate clear economic incentives to remove fundamental productivity vulnerabilities due to chronic energy deficits and impeded growth of immature cows under typical management. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the economic outcomes are robust for a variety of market conditions

In the dedicated pursuit of dedicated capital: restoring an indigenous investment ethic to British capitalism

Tony Blair’s landslide electoral victory on May 1 (New Labour Day?) presents the party in power with a rare, perhaps even unprecedented, opportunity to revitalise and modernise Britain’s ailing and antiquated manufacturing economy.* If it is to do so, it must remain true to its long-standing (indeed, historic) commitment to restore an indigenous investment ethic to British capitalism. In this paper we argue that this in turn requires that the party reject the very neo-liberal orthodoxies which it offered to the electorate as evidence of its competence, moderation and ‘modernisation’, which is has internalised, and which it apparently now views as circumscribing the parameters of the politically and economically possible

PTF10fqs: A Luminous Red Nova in the Spiral Galaxy Messier 99

The Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) is systematically charting the optical transient and variable sky. A primary science driver of PTF is building a complete inventory of transients in the local Universe (distance less than 200 Mpc). Here, we report the discovery of PTF10fqs, a transient in the luminosity "gap" between novae and supernovae. Located on a spiral arm of Messier 99, PTF 10fqs has a peak luminosity of Mr = -12.3, red color (g-r = 1.0) and is slowly evolving (decayed by 1 mag in 68 days). It has a spectrum dominated by intermediate-width H (930 km/s) and narrow calcium emission lines. The explosion signature (the light curve and spectra) is overall similar to thatof M85OT2006-1, SN2008S, and NGC300OT. The origin of these events is shrouded in mystery and controversy (and in some cases, in dust). PTF10fqs shows some evidence of a broad feature (around 8600A) that may suggest very large velocities (10,000 km/s) in this explosion. Ongoing surveys can be expected to find a few such events per year. Sensitive spectroscopy, infrared monitoring and statistics (e.g. disk versus bulge) will eventually make it possible for astronomers to unravel the nature of these mysterious explosions.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures, Replaced with published versio