Epidemiology and time trends of distal forearm fractures in adults - a study of 11.2 million person-years in Sweden

Background: A distal forearm fracture is a very common injury causing both suffering and substantial health care costs. The incidence of this fracture type seemed to increase worldwide until the middle 1980’s, but thereafter most reports have shown stable or decreasing rates. As few large studies have been presented lately we aimed to describe recent epidemiology and time trends of distal forearm fractures in adults. We paid special attention to fractures in working ages as they present challenges in terms of treatment and costs for sick-leave, and have not previously been thoroughly investigated. Methods: By use of population data from Statistics Sweden and official in- and out-patient register data of men and women (≥17 years) in Sweden (Skåne region), we ascertained distal forearm fractures and estimated age- and sex-specific rates and time-trends from year 1999 to 2010 (11.2 million person-years (py)). Results: The total incidence rate was 278 per 100,000 py (31,233 fractures) with 23% higher annual numbers 2010 compared with 1999. An increase in the annual age standardized incidence was found in men, +0.7% per annum (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1, 1.4), and women, +0.9% (95% CI 0.5, 1.3), driven mainly by an increasing incidence in working ages (17-64 years). Also, expected demographic changes including a 25% population increase may result in 38% more fractures until 2050, compared to 2017. Conclusions: The incidence of distal forearm fractures in adults in southern Sweden is increasing, mainly driven by an increase in working ages. In combination with expected demographic changes these findings may present substantial challenges for the future

Increasing wrist fracture rates in children may have major implications for future adult fracture burden: A registry study involving 2.8 million patient years based on the Skåne region of Sweden, 1999–2010

Background and purpose — Childhood fractures are associated with lower peak bone mass (a determinant of osteoporosis in old age) and higher adult fracture risk. By examining time trends in childhood fracture epidemiology, it may be possible to estimate the vector of fragility fracture risk in the future. Patients and methods — By using official inpatient and outpatient data from the county of Skåne in Sweden, 1999–2010, we ascertained distal forearm fractures in children aged ≤ 16 years and estimated overall and age- and sex-specific rates and time trends (over 2.8 million patient years) and compared the results to earlier estimations in the same region from 1950 onwards. Results — During the period 1999–2010, the distal forearm fracture rate was 634 per 105 patient years (750 in boys and 512 in girls). This was 50% higher than in the 1950s with a different age-rate distribution (p < 0.001) that was most evident during puberty. Also, within the period 1999–2010, there were increasing fracture rates per 105 and year (boys +2.0% (95% CI: 1.5–2.6), girls +2.4% (95% CI: 1.7–3.1)). Interpretation — The distal forearm fracture rate in children is currently 50% higher than in the 1950s, and it still appears to be increasing. If this higher fracture risk follows the children into old age, numbers of fragility fractures may increase sharply—as an upturn in life expectancy has also been predicted. The origin of the increase remains unknown, but it may be associated with a more sedentary lifestyle or with changes in risk behavior