Model structure detection and system identification of metal rubber devices

Metal rubber (MR) devices, a new wire mesh material, have been extensively used in recent years due to several unique properties especially in adverse environments. Although many practical studies have been completed, the related theoretical research on metal rubber is still in its infancy. In this paper, a semi-constitutive dynamic model that involves nonlinear elastic stiffness, nonlinear viscous damping and bilinear hysteresis Coulomb damping is adopted to model MR devices. After approximating the bilinear hysteresis damping using Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind, a very efficient procedure based on the orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm and the adjustable prediction error sum of squares (APRESS) criterion is proposed for model structure detection and parameter estimation of an MR device for the first time. The OLS algorithm provides a powerful tool to effectively select the significant model terms step by step, one at a time, by orthogonalizing the associated terms and maximizing the error reduction ratio, in a forward stepwise procedure. The APRESS statistic regularizes the OLS algorithm to facilitate the determination of the optimal number of model terms that should be included into the dynamic model. Because of the orthogonal property of the OLS algorithm, the approach leads to a parsimonious model. Numerical ill-conditioning problems confronted by the conventional least squares algorithm can also be avoided by the new approach. Finally by utilising the transient response of a MR specimen, it is shown how the model structure can be detected in a practical application. The identified model agrees with the experimental measurements very well

System identification methods for metal rubber devices

Metal rubber (MR) devices, a new wire mesh material, have been extensively used in recent years due to several unique properties especially in adverse environments. Although many practical studies have been completed, the related theoretical research on metal rubber is still in its infancy. In this paper, a semi-constitutive dynamic model that involves nonlinear elastic stiffness, nonlinear viscous damping and bilinear hysteresis Coulomb damping is adopted to model MR devices. The model is first approximated by representing the bilinear hysteresis damping as Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind and then generalised by taking into account the effects of noises. A very efficient systematic procedure based on the orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm, the adjustable prediction error sum of squares (APRESS) criterion and the nonlinear model validity tests is proposed for model structure detection and parameter estimation of MR devices for the first time. The OLS algorithm provides a powerful tool to effectively select the significant model terms step by step, one at a time, by orthogonalising the associated terms and maximising the error reduction ratio, in a forward stepwise manner. The APRESS statistic regularises the OLS algorithm to facilitate the determination of the optimal number of model terms that should be included into the model. And whether the final identified dynamic model is adequate and acceptable is determined by the model validity tests. Because of the orthogonal property of the OLS algorithm, the selection of the dynamic model terms and noise model terms are totally decoupled and the approach also leads to a parsimonious model. Numerical ill-conditioning problems which can arise in the conventional least squares algorithm can be avoided as well. The methods of choosing the sampling interval for nonlinear systems are also incorporated into the approach. Finally by utilising the response of a cylindrical MR specimen, it is shown how the model structure can be detected in a practical application

Interplanetary and Geomagnetic Consequences of Interacting CMEs of 13-14 June 2012

We report on the kinematics of two interacting CMEs observed on 13 and 14 June 2012. Both CMEs originated from the same active region NOAA 11504. After their launches which were separated by several hours, they were observed to interact at a distance of 100 Rs from the Sun. The interaction led to a moderate geomagnetic storm at the Earth with Dst index of approximately, -86 nT. The kinematics of the two CMEs is estimated using data from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Assuming a head-on collision scenario, we find that the collision is inelastic in nature. Further, the signatures of their interaction are examined using the in situ observations obtained by Wind and the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. It is also found that this interaction event led to the strongest sudden storm commencement (SSC) (approximately 150 nT) of the present Solar Cycle 24. The SSC was of long duration, approximately 20 hours. The role of interacting CMEs in enhancing the geoeffectiveness is examined.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, Accepted in Solar Physics Journa

Identification of cardiac MRI thresholds for risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Rationale: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a life-shortening condition. The European Society of Cardiology and European Respiratory Society and the REVEAL (North American Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management) risk score calculator (REVEAL 2.0) identify thresholds to predict 1-year mortality. Objectives: This study evaluates whether cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) thresholds can be identified and used to aid risk stratification and facilitate decision-making. Methods: Consecutive patients with PAH (n = 438) undergoing cardiac MRI were identified from the ASPIRE (Assessing the Spectrum of Pulmonary Hypertension Identified at a Referral Center) MRI database. Thresholds were identified from a discovery cohort and evaluated in a test cohort. Measurements and Main Results: A percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index threshold of 227% or a left ventricular end-diastolic volume index of 58 ml/m2 identified patients at low (10%) risk of 1-year mortality. These metrics respectively identified 63% and 34% of patients as low risk. Right ventricular ejection fraction >54%, 37–54%, and <37% identified 21%, 43%, and 36% of patients at low, intermediate, and high risk, respectively, of 1-year mortality. At follow-up cardiac MRI, patients who improved to or were maintained in a low-risk group had a 1-year mortality <5%. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index independently predicted outcome and, when used in conjunction with the REVEAL 2.0 risk score calculator or a modified French Pulmonary Hypertension Registry approach, improved risk stratification for 1-year mortality. Conclusions: Cardiac MRI can be used to risk stratify patients with PAH using a threshold approach. Percentage-predicted right ventricular end-systolic volume index can identify a high percentage of patients at low-risk of 1-year mortality and, when used in conjunction with current risk stratification approaches, can improve risk stratification. This study supports further evaluation of cardiac MRI in risk stratification in PAH

Express: The incremental shuttle walk test predicts mortality in non-group 1 pulmonary hypertension: results from the ASPIRE Registry.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is classified into 5 groups based on disease etiology but there is only limited information on the prognostic value of exercise testing in non-Group 1 PH. In Group 1 PH the incremental shuttle walking test (ISWT) distance has been shown to correlate with pulmonary hemodynamics and predict survival without a ceiling-effect. This study assessed the ISWT in non-group 1 PH. Data were retrieved from the ASPIRE registry (Assessing the Spectrum of Pulmonary hypertension Identified at a REferral centre) for consecutive patients diagnosed with PH. Patients were required to have been systematically assessed as Group 2-5 PH and to have a baseline ISWT within 3 months of cardiac catheterization. Patients were stratified according to incremental shuttle walk test distance (ISWD) and ISWT distance percent predicted (ISWD%pred). 479 patients with non-Group 1 PH were identified. ISWD and ISWD%pred correlated significantly with symptoms and hemodynamic severity. ISWD and ISWD%pred predicted survival with no ceiling-effect. The test was prognostic in Groups 2, 3 and 4. ISWD and ISWD%pred and change in ISWD and ISWD%pred at 1 year were all significant predictors of outcome. In patients with non-Group 1 PH the Incremental Shuttle Walk Test is a simple non-invasive test that is easy to perform, is predictive of survival at baseline and follow-up, reflects change and can be used in the assessment of PH of any etiology

Incremental Shuttle Walking Test Distance and Autonomic Dysfunction Predict Survival in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Background To ensure effective monitoring of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), a simple, reliable assessment of exercise capacity applicable over a range of disease severity is needed. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) to correlate with disease severity, measure sensitivity to change, and predict survival in PAH. Methods We enrolled 418 treatment-naïve patients with PAH with baseline ISWT within 3 months of cardiac catheterization. Clinical validity and prognostic value of ISWT distance were assessed at baseline and 1 year. Results ISWT distance was found to correlate at baseline with World Health Organization functional class, Borg score, and hemodynamics without a ceiling effect (all p 18 beats/min, highest SBP, change in SBP, and 3-minute SBP ratio) were significant predictors of survival (all p < 0.05). Conclusions In patients with PAH, the ISWT is simple to perform, allows assessment of maximal exercise capacity, is sensitive to treatment effect, predicts outcome, and has no ceiling effect. Also, measures of autonomic function made post-exercise predict survival in PAH

Moderate drinking before the unit: medicine and life assurance in Britain and the US c.1860–1930

This article describes the way in which “Anstie’s Limit” – a particular definition of moderate drinking first defined in Britain in the 1860s by the physician Francis Edmund Anstie (1833–1874) – became established as a useful measure of moderate alcohol consumption. Becoming fairly well-established in mainstream Anglophone medicine by 1900, it was also communicated to the public in Britain, North America and New Zealand through newspaper reports. However, the limit also travelled to less familiar places, including life assurance offices, where a number of different strategies for separating moderate from excessive drinkers emerged from the dialogue between medicine and life assurance. Whilst these ideas of moderation seem to have disappeared into the background for much of the twentieth century, re-emerging as the “J-shaped” curve, these early developments anticipate many of the questions surrounding uses of the “unit” to quantify moderate alcohol consumption in Britain today. The article will therefore conclude by exploring some of the lessons of this story for contemporary discussions of moderation, suggesting that we should pay more attention to whether these metrics work, where they work and why

Construction of radial basis function networks with diversified topologies

In this review we bring together some of our recent work from the angle of the diversified RBF topologies, including three different topologies; (i) the RBF network with tunable nodes; (ii) the Box-Cox output transformation based RBF network (Box-Cox RBF); and (iii) the RBF network with boundary value constraints (BVC-RBF). We show that the modified topologies have some advantages over the conventional RBF topology for specific problems. For each modified topology, the model construction algorithms have been developed. These proposed RBF topologies are respectively aimed at enhancing the modelling capabilities of; (i)flexible basis function shaping for improved model generalisation with the minimal model;(ii) effectively handling some dynamical processes in which the model residuals exhibit heteroscedasticity; and (iii) achieving automatic constraints satisfaction so as to incorporate deterministic prior knowledge with ease. It is shown that it is advantageous that the linear learning algorithms, e.g. the orthogonal forward selection (OFS) algorithm based leave-one-out (LOO) criteria, are still applicable as part of the proposed algorithms

Maximal exercise testing using the incremental shuttle walking test can be used to risk stratify patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

Rationale: Exercise capacity predicts mortality in pulmonary arterial hypertension but limited data exist on the routine use of maximal exercise testing. Objectives: This study evaluates a simple to perform maximal test, the incremental shuttle walking test, and its utility in risk stratification in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Methods: Consecutive patients with pulmonary hypertension were identified from the ASPIRE registry (2001-2018). Thresholds for levels of risk were identified at baseline, tested at follow-up and incorporation into current risk stratification approaches assessed. Results: Of 4524 treatment-naïve patients with pulmonary hypertension who underwent maximal exercise testing 1,847 patients had PAH. A step-wise reduction in one-year-mortality was seen between levels 1 (≤30m; 32% mortality) and 7 (340-420m; 1% mortality) with no mortality for levels 8-12 (≥430m) in idiopathic and connective tissue disease related PAH. Thresholds derived at baseline of ≤180m (>10%; high-risk), 190-330m (5-10%; intermediate-risk) and ≥340m (<5%; low-risk of one-year mortality) were applied at follow-up and also accurately identified levels of risk. Thresholds were incorporated into the REVEAL 2.0 risk score calculator and French low-risk approach to risk stratification and distinct categories of risk remained. Conclusion: We have demonstrated that maximal exercise testing in PAH stratifies mortality-risk at baseline and follow-up. This study highlights the potential value of the incremental shuttle walking test as an alternative to the 6-minute-walk-test, combining some of the advantages of maximal exercise testing whilst maintaining the simplicity of a simple to perform field test

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe