A computationally efficient method for probabilistic parameter threshold analysis for health economic evaluations

Background. Threshold analysis is used to determine the threshold value of an input parameter at which a health care strategy becomes cost-effective. Typically, it is performed in a deterministic manner, in which inputs are varied one at a time while the remaining inputs are each fixed at their mean value. This approach will result in incorrect threshold values if the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear or if inputs are correlated. Objective. To propose a probabilistic method for performing threshold analysis, which accounts for the joint uncertainty in all input parameters and makes no assumption about the linearity of the cost-effectiveness model. Methods. Three methods are compared: 1) deterministic threshold analysis (DTA); 2) a 2-level Monte Carlo approach, which is considered the gold standard; and 3) a regression-based method using a generalized additive model (GAM), which identifies threshold values directly from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample. Results. We applied the 3 methods to estimate the minimum probability of hospitalization for typhoid fever at which 3 different vaccination strategies become cost-effective in Uganda. The threshold probability of hospitalization at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.060 and 0.061 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.058–0.064), respectively, for 2-level and GAM. According to DTA, routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 5 years would never become cost-effective. The threshold probability at which routine vaccination at 9 months with catchup campaign to 15 years becomes cost-effective is estimated to be 0.092 (DTA), 0.074 (2-level), and 0.072 (95% CI, 0.069–0.075) (GAM). GAM is 430 times faster than the 2-level approach. Conclusions. When the cost-effectiveness model is nonlinear, GAM provides similar threshold values to the 2-level Monte Carlo approach and is computationally more efficient. DTA provides incorrect results and should not be used

The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: a semi-parametric, meta-regression approach

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are among the primary causes of death for children under 5 years of age worldwide. A notable challenge with many of the upcoming prophylactic interventions against RSV is their short duration of protection, making the age profile of key interest to the design of prevention strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We leverage the RSV data collected on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in a systematic review in combination with flexible generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to characterize the age burden of RSV incidence, hospitalization, and hospital-based case fatality rate (hCFR). Due to the flexible nature of GAMMs, we estimate the peak, median, and mean incidence of infection to inform discussions on the ideal "window of protection" of prophylactic interventions. In a secondary analysis, we reestimate the burden of RSV in all low- and middle-income countries. The peak age of community-based incidence is 4.8 months, and the mean and median age of infection is 18.9 and 14.7 months, respectively. Estimating the age profile using the incidence coming from hospital-based studies yields a slightly younger age profile, in which the peak age of infection is 2.6 months and the mean and median age of infection are 15.8 and 11.6 months, respectively. More severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and in-hospital death have a younger age profile. Children under 6 months of age constitute 10% of the population under 5 years of age but bear 20% to 29% of cases, 28% to 39% of hospitalizations, and 38% to 50% of deaths. On an average year, we estimate 28.23 to 31.34 million cases of RSV, between 2.95 to 3.35 million hospitalizations, and 16,835 to 19,909 in-hospital deaths in low, lower- and upper middle-income countries. In addition, we estimate 17,254 to 23,875 deaths in the community, for a total of 34,114 to 46,485 deaths. Globally, evidence shows that community-based incidence may differ by World Bank Income Group, but not hospital-based incidence, probability of hospitalization, or the probability of in-hospital death (p ≤ 0.01, p = 1, p = 0.86, 0.63, respectively). Our study is limited mainly due to the sparsity of the data, especially for low-income countries (LICs). The lack of information for some populations makes detecting heterogeneity between income groups difficult, and differences in access to care may impact the reported burden. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated an approach to synthesize information on RSV outcomes in a statistically principled manner, and we estimate that the age profile of RSV burden depends on whether information on incidence is collected in hospitals or in the community. Our results suggest that the ideal prophylactic strategy may require multiple products to avert the risk among preschool children

Modular Air-Coupled Ultrasonic Multichannel System for Inline NDT

AbstractIn many production processes it is important to detect in a very early stage basic errors in the fabricatedmaterial. If the errors are not visible from the exterior, ultrasonic inspection is a convenient technique,at least if the nature of the error influences the characteristics of sound passing through the material.Examples are local density variations in non-wovens, delaminations in composites, bad bondings inlaminates, inclusions, cracks or other artefacts in plastic or metal plates, etc. There are two major,difficult requirements imposed by industry to the used detection technique: the sensors shouldn’t makephysical contact with the material and the speed of testing must be sufficiently high to enable testingin-line. The former requirement can be met by employing an air-coupled ultrasonic approach, the latterby using a multichannel system.We propose a modular air-coupled ultrasonic multichannel system.Each multichannel module contains12 air-coupled transducers and exists in a transmitter and a receiver version. The desired scan width isobtained by connecting several modules to each other. During the scanning all transducers are spatially fixed while the material is moving forward. This way, speeds up to 1m/s are possible, irrespective ofthe width of the material. To that purpose a FPGA based platform with parallel processing of largenumbers of data streams is implemented in the modules. This allows the implementation of all kind ofprocedures, going from point measurements to more sophisticated techniques.In spite of all measurements being performed in ambient air, the ultrasonic frequency is rather high(1MHz), but lower frequencies are possible as well. The most obvious set-up of the modules is a through-transmission configuration. However the system can also be used in a pitch-catch configuration which isvery suitable for one-sided testing of thick materials. An examples established in the laboratory is shownto illustrate the performance

Modeling good research practices - overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM modeling good research practices task force - 1.

Models—mathematical frameworks that facilitate estimation of the consequences of health care decisions—have become essential tools for health technology assessment. Evolution of the methods since the first ISPOR modeling task force reported in 2003 has led to a new task force, jointly convened with the Society for Medical Decision Making, and this series of seven papers presents the updated recommendations for best practices in conceptualizing models; implementing state–transition approaches, discrete event simulations, or dynamic transmission models; dealing with uncertainty; and validating and reporting models transparently. This overview introduces the work of the task force, provides all the recommendations, and discusses some quandaries that require further elucidation. The audience for these papers includes those who build models, stakeholders who utilize their results, and, indeed, anyone concerned with the use of models to support decision making

Estimating the effect of vaccination on antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever in 73 countries supported by Gavi: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: Multidrug resistance and fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS) are major concerns for the epidemiology and treatment of typhoid fever. The 2018 prequalification of the first typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) by WHO provides an opportunity to limit the transmission and burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. METHODS: We combined output from mathematical models of typhoid transmission with estimates of antimicrobial resistance from meta-analyses to predict the burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever across 73 lower-income countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. We considered FQNS and multidrug resistance separately. The effect of vaccination was predicted on the basis of forecasts of vaccine coverage. We explored how the potential effect of vaccination on the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance varied depending on key model parameters. FINDINGS: The introduction of routine immunisation with TCV at age 9 months with a catch-up campaign up to age 15 years was predicted to avert 46-74% of all typhoid fever cases in 73 countries eligible for Gavi support. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the relative prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever by 16% (95% prediction interval [PI] 0-49). TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was predicted to avert 42.5 million (95% PI 24.8-62.8 million) cases and 506 000 (95% PI 187 000-1.9 million) deaths caused by FQNS typhoid fever, and 21.2 million (95% PI 16.4-26.5 million) cases and 342 000 (95% PI 135 000-1.5 million) deaths from multidrug-resistant typhoid fever over 10 years following introduction. INTERPRETATION: Our results indicate the benefits of prioritising TCV introduction for countries with a high avertable burden of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid fever. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Habitat use by Siberian warbler species at a stopover site in Far Eastern Russia

Knowledge of the routes and habitat use of Siberian songbird species during migration is very limited. The goal of our study was to describe the autumnal habitat use of seven Siberian warbler species in the genera Phylloscopus, Acrocephalus, Iduna and Locustella in Far Eastern Russia. A total of 2283 individuals were trapped in mist nets placed within different habitat types between 2012 and 2014 as part of the Amur Bird Project at Muraviovka Park in Far Eastern Russia. We studied the effect of habitat type and vegetation height on the occurrence of each species, and compared our results to published information on habitat use on the breeding grounds. Our results demonstrate that most species exhibit species-specific preferences for habitat type, and that these stopover habitats were similar to habitats used on the breeding grounds. © 2018 British Trust for Ornitholog

Impact of community-acquired paediatric rotavirus gastroenteritis on family life: data from the REVEAL study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and the most frequent cause of severe diarrhoea in children aged less than 5 years. Although the epidemiology of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) is well documented, there are few data on the impact of RVGE on the families of affected children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data associated with the burden of RVGE, including number of working days lost, levels of parental stress, the need for alternative childcare arrangements and additional nappies used, were extracted from questionnaires completed by parents of children participating in a prospective, multicentre, observational study (Rotavirus gastroenteritis Epidemiology and Viral types in Europe Accounting for Losses in public health and society, REVEAL), conducted during 2004-2005 in selected areas of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom to estimate the incidence of RVGE in children aged less than 5 years seeking medical care as a result of AGE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1102 children with RVGE were included in the present analysis. The proportion of RVGE cases that required at least one parent or other person to be absent from work was 39%-91% in the hospital setting, 44%-64% in the emergency department, and 20%-64% in primary care. Self-reported levels of parental stress were generally high (mean stress levels, ≥ 5 on a 10-point visual analogue scale). Additional childcare arrangements were required in up to 21% of RVGE episodes. The mean number of nappies used per day during RVGE episodes was approximately double that used when the child was not ill.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Paediatric RVGE cases cause disruption to families and parental stress. The burden of RVGE on children and their families could be substantially reduced by routine rotavirus vaccination of infants.</p

Burden of community-acquired and nosocomial rotavirus gastroenteritis in the pediatric population of Western Europe: a scoping review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rotavirus affects 95% of children worldwide by age 5 years and is the leading cause of severe dehydrating diarrhea. The objective of this review was to estimate the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in the Western European pediatric population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A comprehensive literature search (1999-2010) was conducted in PubMed and other sources (CDC; WHO, others). Data on the epidemiology and burden of RVGE among children < 5 years-old in Western Europe --including hospital-acquired disease--were extracted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>76 studies from 16 countries were identified. The mean percentage of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) cases caused by rotavirus ranged from 25.3%-63.5% in children < 5 years of age, peaking during winter. Incidence rates of RVGE ranged from 1.33-4.96 cases/100 person- years. Hospitalization rates for RVGE ranged from 7% to 81% among infected children, depending on the country. Nosocomial RVGE accounted for 47%-69% of all hospital-acquired AGE and prolonged hospital stays by 4-12 days. Each year, RVGE incurred $0.54-$53.6 million in direct medical costs and $1.7-$22.4 million in indirect costs in the 16 countries studied. Full serotyping data was available for 8 countries. G1P[8], G2P[4], G9P[8], and G3P[8] were the most prevalent serotypes (cumulative frequency: 57.2%- 98.7%). Serotype distribution in nosocomial RVGE was similar.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This review confirms that RVGE is a common disease associated with significant morbidity and costs across Western Europe. A vaccine protecting against multiple serotypes may decrease the epidemiological and cost burden of RVGE in Western Europe.</p