Glacial thermohaline circulation states of the northern Atlantic: The compatibility of modelling and observations

We present 3He data froma repeat section across Drake Passage, fromthree sections off the South American continent in the Pacific, at 28?S, 35?S, and 43?S, and fromthree sections in the Atlantic, eastward of the Malvinas, close to 35?W, and near the Greenwich Meridian. In Drake Passage, a distinct high-3He signal is observed that is centered just above the boundary of the Lower and the Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW, UCDW), and is concentrated towards the northern continental slope. 3He concentrations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) upstream of Drake Passage (World Ocean Circulation Experiment section P19 at 88?W) are markedly lower than those found in Drake Passage, and a regional source of primordial helium in the path of the ACC that might cause the high-3He feature can be ruled out. We explain the feature by addition of high-3He waters present at the 43?S Pacific section. This supports a previous, similar interpretation of a low-salinity anomaly in Drake Passage (Naveira Garabato et al., Deep- Sea Research I 49 (2002) 681), that is strongly related to the high-3He feature. Employing multiparameter water mass analysis (including 3He as a parameter), we find that deep waters as met at the 43?S Pacific section, flowing south along the South American continental slope, contribute substantially to the ACC waters in Drake Passage (fractions exceed 50% locally). Lesser, but laterally more extended contributions are found east of the Malvinas, and still smaller ones are present at 35?W and at the Greenwich Meridian. Using velocity measurements from one of the two Drake Passage sections, we estimate the volume transport of these waters to be 7.071.2 Sv, but the average transport may be somewhat lower as the other realization had a less pronounced signal. The enhanced 3He signature in Drake Passage is essentially confined north of the Polar Front. Further downstreamthe signature crosses this front, to the extent that at 35?W the contributions south and north of it are of similar magnitude. At the same time, the 3He levels north of the front are reduced due to a substantial admixture of low-3He North Atlantic Deep Water, such that 3He becomes highest south of the front. The flow of Southeast Pacific deep slope waters entering the ACC constitutes the predominant exit pathway of the primordial helium released in the deep Pacific, and represents a considerable fraction of the deep water return flow fromthe Pacific into the ACC. Therefore and also because the density range of the added deep slope waters is intermediate between those of UCDW and LCDW, they must be considered a distinct water mass. r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

An efficient approach to ocean–iceberg modelling provides a means for assessing prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the northwest Atlantic, where icebergs present a hazard to mariners each spring. The stand-alone surface (SAS) module that is part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is coupled with the NEMO iceberg module (ICB) in a “SAS-ICB” configuration with horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Iceberg conditions are investigated for three recent years, 2013–2015, characterized by widely varying iceberg distributions. The relative simplicity of SAS-ICB facilitates efficient investigation of sensitivity to iceberg fluxes and prevailing environmental conditions. SAS-ICB is provided with daily surface ocean analysis fields from the global Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) of the Met Office. Surface currents, temperatures and height together determine iceberg advection and melting rates. Iceberg drift is further governed by surface winds, which are updated every 3 h. The flux of icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet is determined from engineering control theory and specified as an upstream flux in the vicinity of Davis Strait for January or February. Simulated iceberg distributions are evaluated alongside observations reported and archived by the International Ice Patrol. The best agreement with observations is obtained when variability in both upstream iceberg flux and oceanographic/atmospheric conditions is taken into account. Including interactive icebergs in an ocean–atmosphere model with sufficient seasonal forecast skill, and provided with accurate winter iceberg fluxes, it is concluded that seasonal forecasts of spring/summer iceberg conditions for the northwest Atlantic are now a realistic prospect

The Atlantic Ocean at the last glacial maximum: 1. Objective mapping of the GLAMAP sea-surface conditions

Recent efforts of the German paleoceanographic community have resulted in a unique data set of reconstructed sea-surface temperature for the Atlantic Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum, plus estimates for the extents of glacial sea ice. Unlike prior attempts, the contributing research groups based their data on a common definition of the Last Glacial Maximum chronozone and used the same modern reference data for calibrating the different transfer techniques. Furthermore, the number of processed sediment cores was vastly increased. Thus the new data is a significant advance not only with respect to quality, but also to quantity. We integrate these new data and provide monthly data sets of global sea-surface temperature and ice cover, objectively interpolated onto a regular 1°x1° grid, suitable for forcing or validating numerical ocean and atmosphere models. This set is compared to an existing subjective interpolation of the same base data, in part by employing an ocean circulation model. For the latter purpose, we reconstruct sea surface salinity from the new temperature data and the available oxygen isotope measurements

Enhanced Southern Ocean marine productivity due to fertilization by giant icebergs

Primary productivity is enhanced within a few kilometres of icebergs in the Weddell Sea owing to the input of terrigeneous nutrients and trace elements during iceberg melting. However, the influence of giant icebergs, over 18 km in length, on marine primary production in the Southern Ocean is less well studied. Here we present an analysis of 175 satellite images of open ocean colour before and after the passage of 17 giant icebergs between 2003 and 2013. We detect substantially enhanced chlorophyll levels, typically over a radius of at least 4-10 times the iceberg's length, that can persist for more than a month following passage of a giant iceberg. This area of influence is more than an order of magnitude larger than that found for sub-kilometre scale icebergs or in ship-based surveys of giant icebergs. Assuming that carbon export increases by a factor of 5-10 over the area of influence, we estimate that up to a fifth of the Southern Ocean's downward carbon flux originates with giant iceberg fertilization. We suggest that, if giant iceberg calving increases this century as expected, this negative feedback on the carbon cycle may become more important

Sparse, interpretable and transparent predictive model identification for healthcare data analysis

Data-driven modelling approaches play an indispensable role in analyzing and understanding complex processes. This study proposes a type of sparse, interpretable and transparent (SIT) machine learning model, which can be used to understand the dependent relationship of a response variable on a set of potential explanatory variables. An ideal candidate for such a SIT representation is the well-known NARMAX (nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs) model, which can be established from measured input and output data of the system of interest, and the final refined model is usually simple, parsimonious and easy to interpret. The performance of the proposed SIT models is evaluated through two real healthcare datasets

Biogeochemical, isotopic and bacterial distributions trace oceanic abyssal circulation

We explore the possibility of tracing routes of dense waters toward and within the ocean abyss by the use of an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters. To this purpose, we employ mercury, isotopic oxygen, biopolymeric carbon and its constituents, together with indicators of microbial activity and bacterial diversity found in bottom waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. In this basin, which has been considered as a miniature global ocean, two competing sources of bottom water (one in the Adriatic and one in the Aegean seas) contribute to the ventilation of the local abyss. However, due to a recent substantial reduction of the differences in the physical characteristics of these two water masses it has become increasingly complex a water classification using the traditional approach with temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen alone. Here, we show that an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters allows recognizing the existence of two different abyssal routes from the Adriatic source and one abyssal route from the Aegean source despite temperature and salinity of such two competing sources of abyssal water being virtually indistinguishable. Moreover, as the near-bottom development of exogenous bacterial communities transported by convectively-generated water masses in the abyss can provide a persistent trace of episodic events, intermittent flows like those generating abyssal waters in the Eastern Mediterranean basin may become detectable beyond the availability of concomitant measurements.We explore the possibility of tracing routes of dense waters toward and within the ocean abyss by the use of an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters. To this purpose, we employ mercury, isotopic oxygen, biopolymeric carbon and its constituents, together with indicators of microbial activity and bacterial diversity found in bottom waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. In this basin, which has been considered as a miniature global ocean, two competing sources of bottom water (one in the Adriatic and one in the Aegean seas) contribute to the ventilation of the local abyss. However, due to a recent substantial reduction of the differences in the physical characteristics of these two water masses it has become increasingly complex a water classification using the traditional approach with temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen alone. Here, we show that an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters allows recognizing the existence of two different abyssal routes from the Adriatic source and one abyssal route from the Aegean source despite temperature and salinity of such two competing sources of abyssal water being virtually indistinguishable. Moreover, as the near-bottom development of exogenous bacterial communities transported by convectively-generated water masses in the abyss can provide a persistent trace of episodic events, intermittent flows like those generating abyssal waters in the Eastern Mediterranean basin may become detectable beyond the availability of concomitant measurements. © 2016 Rubino et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Control of Jupiter's radio emission and aurorae by the solar wind

Radio emissions from Jupiter provided the first evidence that this giant planet has a strong magnetic field(1,2) and a large magnetosphere(3). Jupiter also has polar aurorae(4), which are similar in many respects to Earth's aurorae(5). The radio emissions are believed to be generated along the high-latitude magnetic field lines by the same electrons that produce the aurorae, and both the radio emission in the hectometric frequency range and the aurorae vary considerably(6,7). The origin of the variability, however, has been poorly understood. Here we report simultaneous observations using the Cassini and Galileo spacecraft of hectometric radio emissions and extreme ultraviolet auroral emissions from Jupiter. Our results show that both of these emissions are triggered by interplanetary shocks propagating outward from the Sun. When such a shock arrives at Jupiter, it seems to cause a major compression and reconfiguration of the magnetosphere, which produces strong electric fields and therefore electron acceleration along the auroral field lines, similar to the processes that occur during geomagnetic storms at the Earth.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62740/1/415985a.pd