Modelling stillbirth mortality reduction with the Lives Saved Tool.

BACKGROUND: The worldwide burden of stillbirths is large, with an estimated 2.6 million babies stillborn in 2015 including 1.3 million dying during labour. The Every Newborn Action Plan set a stillbirth target of ≤12 per 1000 in all countries by 2030. Planning tools will be essential as countries set policy and plan investment to scale up interventions to meet this target. This paper summarises the approach taken for modelling the impact of scaling-up health interventions on stillbirths in the Lives Saved tool (LiST), and potential future refinements. METHODS: The specific application to stillbirths of the general method for modelling the impact of interventions in LiST is described. The evidence for the effectiveness of potential interventions to reduce stillbirths are reviewed and the assumptions of the affected fraction of stillbirths who could potentially benefit from these interventions are presented. The current assumptions and their effects on stillbirth reduction are described and potential future improvements discussed. RESULTS: High quality evidence are not available for all parameters in the LiST stillbirth model. Cause-specific mortality data is not available for stillbirths, therefore stillbirths are modelled in LiST using an attributable fraction approach by timing of stillbirths (antepartum/ intrapartum). Of 35 potential interventions to reduce stillbirths identified, eight interventions are currently modelled in LiST. These include childbirth care, induction for prolonged pregnancy, multiple micronutrient and balanced energy supplementation, malaria prevention and detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, diabetes and syphilis. For three of the interventions, childbirth care, detection and management of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and diabetes the estimate of effectiveness is based on expert opinion through a Delphi process. Only for malaria is coverage information available, with coverage estimated using expert opinion for all other interventions. Going forward, potential improvements identified include improving of effectiveness and coverage estimates for included interventions and addition of further interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Known effective interventions have the potential to reduce stillbirths and can be modelled using the LiST tool. Data for stillbirths are improving. Going forward the LiST tool should seek, where possible, to incorporate these improving data, and to continually be refined to provide an increasingly reliable tool for policy and programming purposes

Evaluation of health workforce competence in maternal and neonatal issues in public health sector of Pakistan: an Assessment of their training needs

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>More than 450 newborns die every hour worldwide, before they reach the age of four weeks (neonatal period) and over 500,000 women die from complications related to childbirth. The major direct causes of neonatal death are infections (36%), Prematurity (28%) and Asphyxia (23%). Pakistan has one of the highest perinatal and neonatal mortality rates in the region and contributes significantly to global neonatal mortality. The high mortality rates are partially attributable to scarcity of trained skilled birth attendants and paucity of resources. Empowerment of health care providers with adequate knowledge and skills can serve as instrument of change.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We carried out training needs assessment analysis in the public health sector of Pakistan to recognize gaps in the processes and quality of MNCH care provided. An assessment of Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices of Health Care Providers on key aspects was evaluated through a standardized pragmatic approach. Meticulously designed tools were tested on three tiers of health care personnel providing MNCH in the community and across the public health care system. The Lady Health Workers (LHWs) form the first tier of trained cadre that provides MNCH at primary care level (BHU) and in the community. The Lady Health Visitor (LHVs), Nurses, midwives) cadre follow next and provide facility based MNCH care at secondary and tertiary level (RHCs, Taluka/Tehsil, and DHQ Hospitals). The physician/doctor is the specialized cadre that forms the third tier of health care providers positioned in secondary and tertiary care hospitals (Taluka/Tehsil and DHQ Hospitals). The evaluation tools were designed to provide quantitative estimates across various domains of knowledge and skills. A priori thresholds were established for performance rating.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The performance of LHWs in knowledge of MNCH was good with 30% scoring more than 70%. The Medical officers (MOs), in comparison, performed poorly in their knowledge of MNCH with only 6% scoring more than 70%. All three cadres of health care providers performed poorly in the resuscitation skill and only 50% were able to demonstrate steps of immediate newborn care. The MOs performed far better in counselling skills compare to the LHWs. Only 50 per cent of LHWs could secure competency scale in this critical component of skills assessment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>All three cadres of health care providers performed well below competency levels for MNCH knowledge and skills. Standardized training and counselling modules, tailored to the needs and resources at district level need to be developed and implemented. This evaluation highlighted the need for periodic assessment of health worker training and skills to address gaps and develop targeted continuing education modules. To achieve MDG4 and 5 goals, it is imperative that such deficiencies are identified and addressed.</p

Ethnic differences in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest among Middle Eastern Arabs and North African populations living in Qatar

Aims: There are very few studies comparing epidemiology and outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in different ethnic groups. Previous ethnicity studies have mostly determined OHCA differences between African American and Caucasian populations. The aim of this study was to compare epidemiology, clinical presentation, and outcomes of OHCA between the local Middle Eastern Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Arab and the migrant North African populations living in Qatar. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of Middle Eastern GCC Arabs and migrant North African patients with presumed cardiac origin OHCA resuscitated by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in Qatar, between June 2012 and May 2015. Results: There were 285 Middle Eastern GCC Arabs and 112 North African OHCA patients enrolled during the study period. Compared with the local GCC Arabs, univariate analysis showed that the migrant North African OHCA patients were younger and had higher odds of initial shockable rhythm, pre-hospital interventions (defibrillation and amioderone), pre-hospital scene time, and decreased odds of risk factors (hypertension, respiratory disease, and diabetes) and pre-hospital response time. The survival to hospital discharge had greater odds for North African OHCA patients which did not persist after adjustment. Multivariable logistic regression showed that North Africans were associated with lower odds of diabetes (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25–0.91, p = 0.03), and higher odds of initial shockable rhythm (OR 2.86, 95% CI 1.30–6.33, p = 0.01) and greater scene time (OR 1.02 95% CI 1.0–1.04, p = 0.02). Conclusions: North African migrant OHCA patients were younger, had decreased risk factors and favourable OHCA rhythm and received greater ACLS interventions with shorter pre-hospital response times and longer scene times leading to better survival.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Validation of verbal autopsy tool for ascertaining the causes of stillbirth

Objective: To assess performance of the WHO revised verbal autopsy tool for ascertaining the causes of still birth in comparison with reference standard cause of death ascertained by standardized clinical and supportive data.Methods: All stillbirths at a tertiary hospital in Karachi, Pakistan were prospectively recruited into study from August 2006- February 2008. The reference standard cause of death was established by two senior obstetricians within 48 hours using the ICD coding system. Verbal autopsy interviews using modified WHO tool were conducted by trained health workers within 2- 6 weeks of still birth and the cause of death was assigned by second panel of obstetricians. The performance was assessed in terms of sensitivity, specificity and Kappa.Results: There were 204 still births. Of these, 80.8% of antepartum and 50.5% of intrapartum deaths were correctly diagnosed by verbal autopsy. Sensitivity of verbal autopsy was highest 68.4%, (95%CI: 46-84.6) for congenital malformation followed by obstetric complication 57.6%, (95%CI: 25-84.2). The specificity for all major causes was greater than 90%. The level of agreement was high (kappa=0.72) for anomalies and moderate (k=0.4) for all major causes of still birth, except asphyxia.Conclusion: Our results suggest that verbal autopsy has reasonable validity in identifying and discriminating between causes of stillbirth in Pakistan. On the basis of these findings, we feel it has a place in resource constrained areas to inform strategic planning and mobilization of resources to attain Millennium Development Goal

International standards for early fetal size and pregnancy dating based on ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length in the first trimester of pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: There are no international standards for relating fetal crown-rump length (CRL) to gestational age (GA), and most existing charts have considerable methodological limitations. The INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project aimed to produce the first international standards for early fetal size and ultrasound dating of pregnancy based on CRL measurement. METHODS: Urban areas in eight geographically diverse countries that met strict eligibility criteria were selected for the prospective, population-based recruitment, between 9 + 0 and 13 + 6 weeks' gestation, of healthy well-nourished women with singleton pregnancies at low risk of fetal growth impairment. GA was calculated on the basis of a certain last menstrual period, regular menstrual cycle and lack of hormonal medication or breastfeeding in the preceding 2 months. CRL was measured using strict protocols and quality-control measures. All women were followed up throughout pregnancy until delivery and hospital discharge. Cases of neonatal and fetal death, severe pregnancy complications and congenital abnormalities were excluded from the study. RESULTS: A total of 4607 women were enrolled in the Fetal Growth Longitudinal Study, one of the three main components of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Project, of whom 4321 had a live singleton birth in the absence of severe maternal conditions or congenital abnormalities detected by ultrasound or at birth. The CRL was measured in 56 women at < 9 + 0 weeks' gestation; these were excluded, resulting in 4265 women who contributed data to the final analysis. The mean CRL and SD increased with GA almost linearly, and their relationship to GA is given by the following two equations (in which GA is in days and CRL in mm): mean CRL = -50.6562 + (0.815118 × GA) + (0.00535302 × GA(2) ); and SD of CRL = -2.21626 + (0.0984894 × GA). GA estimation is carried out according to the two equations: GA = 40.9041 + (3.21585 × CRL(0.5) ) + (0.348956 × CRL); and SD of GA = 2.39102 + (0.0193474 × CRL). CONCLUSIONS: We have produced international prescriptive standards for early fetal linear size and ultrasound dating of pregnancy in the first trimester that can be used throughout the world

Systematic review on human resources for health interventions to improve maternal health outcomes: Evidence from low- and middle-income countries

There is a broad consensus and evidence that shows qualified, accessible, and responsive human resources for health (HRH) can make a major impact on the health of the populations. At the same time, there is widespread recognition that HRH crises particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) impede the achievement of better health outcomes/targets. In order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), equitable access to a skilled and motivated health worker within a performing health system is need to be ensured. This review contributes to the vast pool of literature towards the assessment of HRH for maternal health and is focused on interventions delivered by skilled birth attendants (SBAs). Studies were included if (a) any HRH interventions in management system, policy, finance, education, partnership, and leadership were implemented; (b) these were related to SBA; (c) reported outcomes related to maternal health; (d) the studies were conducted in LMICs; and (e) studies were in English. Studies were excluded if traditional birth attendants and/or community health workers were trained. The review identified 25 studies which revealed reasons for poor maternal health outcomes in LMICs despite the efforts and policies implemented throughout these years. This review suggested an urgent and immediate need for formative evidence-based research on effective HRH interventions for improved maternal health outcomes. Other initiatives such as education and empowerment of women, alleviating poverty, establishing gender equality, and provision of infrastructure, equipment, drugs, and supplies are all integral components that are required to achieve SDGs by reducing maternal mortality and improving maternal health

A risk prediction model for the assessment and triage of women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in low-resourced settings: the miniPIERS (Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk) multi-country prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia are leading causes of maternal mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). We developed the miniPIERS risk prediction model to provide a simple, evidence-based tool to identify pregnant women in LMICs at increased risk of death or major hypertensive-related complications. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From 1 July 2008 to 31 March 2012, in five LMICs, data were collected prospectively on 2,081 women with any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy admitted to a participating centre. Candidate predictors collected within 24 hours of admission were entered into a step-wise backward elimination logistic regression model to predict a composite adverse maternal outcome within 48 hours of admission. Model internal validation was accomplished by bootstrapping and external validation was completed using data from 1,300 women in the Pre-eclampsia Integrated Estimate of RiSk (fullPIERS) dataset. Predictive performance was assessed for calibration, discrimination, and stratification capacity. The final miniPIERS model included: parity (nulliparous versus multiparous); gestational age on admission; headache/visual disturbances; chest pain/dyspnoea; vaginal bleeding with abdominal pain; systolic blood pressure; and dipstick proteinuria. The miniPIERS model was well-calibrated and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) of 0.768 (95% CI 0.735-0.801) with an average optimism of 0.037. External validation AUC ROC was 0.713 (95% CI 0.658-0.768). A predicted probability ≥25% to define a positive test classified women with 85.5% accuracy. Limitations of this study include the composite outcome and the broad inclusion criteria of any hypertensive disorder of pregnancy. This broad approach was used to optimize model generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: The miniPIERS model shows reasonable ability to identify women at increased risk of adverse maternal outcomes associated with the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It could be used in LMICs to identify women who would benefit most from interventions such as magnesium sulphate, antihypertensives, or transportation to a higher level of care

Impact of service provision platforms on maternal and newborn health in conflict areas and their acceptability in Pakistan: a systematic review

Various models and strategies have been implemented over the years in different parts of the world to improve maternal and newborn health (MNH) in conflict affected areas. These strategies are based on specific needs and acceptability of local communities. This paper has undertaken a systematic review of global and local (Pakistan) information from conflict areas on platforms of health service provision in the last 10 years and information on acceptability from local stakeholders on effective models of service delivery; and drafted key recommendations for improving coverage of health services in conflict affected areas. The literature search revealed ten studies that described MNH service delivery platforms. The results from the systematic review showed that with utilisation of community outreach services, the greatest impacts were observed in skilled birth attendance and antenatal consultation rates. Facility level services, on the other hand, showed that labour room services for an internally displaced population (IDP) improved antenatal care coverage, contraceptive prevalence rate and maternal mortality. Consultative meetings and discussions conducted in Quetta and Peshawar (capitals of conflict affected provinces) with relevant stakeholders revealed that no systematic models of MNH service delivery, especially tailored for conflict areas, are available. During conflict, even previously available services and infrastructure suffered due to various barriers specific to times of conflict and unrest. A number of barriers that hinder MNH services were discussed. Suggestions for improving MNH services in conflict areas were also laid down by participants. The review identified some important steps that can be undertaken to mitigate the effects of conflict on MNH services, which include: improve provision and access to infrastructure and equipment; development and training of healthcare providers; and advocacy at different levels for free access to healthcare services and for the introduction of the programme model in existing healthcare system. The obligation is enormous, however, for a sustainable programme, it is important to work closely with both the IDP and host community, and collaborating with the government and non-government organisations

Development and internal validation of the multivariable CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) clinical risk prediction model

Background: Intensive care unit (ICU) outcome prediction models, such as Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), were designed in general critical care populations and their use in obstetric populations is contentious. The aim of the CIPHER (Collaborative Integrated Pregnancy High-dependency Estimate of Risk) study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable prognostic model calibrated specifically for pregnant or recently delivered women admitted for critical care.Methods: A retrospective observational cohort was created for this study from 13 tertiary facilities across five high-income and six low- or middle-income countries. Women admitted to an ICU for more than 24 h during pregnancy or less than 6 weeks post-partum from 2000 to 2012 were included in the cohort. A composite primary outcome was defined as maternal death or need for organ support for more than 7 days or acute life-saving intervention. Model development involved selection of candidate predictor variables based on prior evidence of effect, availability across study sites, and use of LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model building after multiple imputation using chained equations to address missing data for variable selection. The final model was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Internal validation was completed using bootstrapping to correct for optimism in model performance measures of discrimination and calibration.Results: Overall, 127 out of 769 (16.5%) women experienced an adverse outcome. Predictors included in the final CIPHER model were maternal age, surgery in the preceding 24 h, systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale score, serum sodium, serum potassium, activated partial thromboplastin time, arterial blood gas (ABG) pH, serum creatinine, and serum bilirubin. After internal validation, the model maintained excellent discrimination (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.84) and good calibration (slope of 0.92, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.92 and intercept of −0.11, 95% CI −0.13 to −0.08).Conclusions: The CIPHER model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool. CIPHER can identify critically ill pregnant women at highest risk for adverse outcomes, inform counseling of patients about risk, and facilitate bench-marking of outcomes between centers by adjusting for baseline risk

The incidence of pregnancy hypertension in India, Pakistan, Mozambique, and Nigeria: A prospective population-level analysis.

Background: Most pregnancy hypertension estimates in less-developed countries are from cross-sectional hospital surveys and are considered overestimates. We estimated population-based rates by standardised methods in 27 intervention clusters of the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised trials. Methods and findings: CLIP-eligible pregnant women identified in their homes or local primary health centres (2013–2017). Included here are women who had delivered by trial end and received a visit from a community health worker trained to provide supplementary hypertension-oriented care, including standardised blood pressure (BP) measurement. Hypertension (BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg) was defined as chronic (first detected at \u3c20 weeks gestation) or gestational (≥20 weeks); pre-eclampsia was gestational hypertension plus proteinuria or a pre-eclampsia-defining complication. A multi-level regression model compared hypertension rates and types between countries (p \u3c 0.05 considered significant). In 28,420 pregnancies studied, women were usually young (median age 23–28 years), parous (53.7%–77.3%), with singletons (≥97.5%), and enrolled at a median gestational age of 10.4 (India) to 25.9 weeks (Mozambique). Basic education varied (22.8% in Pakistan to 57.9% in India). Pregnancy hypertension incidence was lower in Pakistan (9.3%) than India (10.3%), Mozambique (10.9%), or Nigeria (10.2%) (p = 0.001). Most hypertension was diastolic only (46.4% in India, 72.7% in Pakistan, 61.3% in Mozambique, and 63.3% in Nigeria). At first presentation with elevated BP, gestational hypertension was most common diagnosis (particularly in Mozambique [8.4%] versus India [6.9%], Pakistan [6.5%], and Nigeria [7.1%]; p \u3c 0.001), followed by pre-eclampsia (India [3.8%], Nigeria [3.0%], Pakistan [2.4%], and Mozambique [2.3%]; p \u3c 0.001) and chronic hypertension (especially in Mozambique [2.5%] and Nigeria [2.8%], compared with India [1.2%] and Pakistan [1.5%]; p \u3c 0.001). Inclusion of additional diagnoses of hypertension and related complications, from household surveys or facility record review (unavailable in Nigeria), revealed higher hypertension incidence: 14.0% in India, 11.6% in Pakistan, and 16.8% in Mozambique; eclampsia was rare (\u3c0.5%). Conclusions: Pregnancy hypertension is common in less-developed settings. Most women in this study presented with gestational hypertension amenable to surveillance and timed delivery to improve outcome