Is greenhouse gas forcing a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Baltic Sea catchment area?

We investigated whether anthropogenic forcing is a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Baltic Sea catchment area. Therefore, we compared the most recent trends in the surface temperature over land with anthropogenic climate change projections from regional climate model simulations. We analyzed patterns of change with different spatio-temporal resolutions. The observed annual area-mean change in the daily-mean temperature was consistent with the anthropogenic climate change signal. This finding was robust to the removal of the signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In contrast to the annual area-mean change, we found little consistency in both annual cycle and spatial variability of the observed and projected changes

"On me dit fou": la parole du fou en résistance au discours aliéniste dans la littérature française (1830-1870)

Cette thèse vise à rendre compte de la perception de la folie au XIXe siècle à travers l’analyse de textes mettant en scène un narrateur fou durant l’âge d’or de l’aliénisme (entre 1830 et 1870). Elle montre dans quelle mesure la littérature expose les différents discours qui la définissent et sert de plateforme d’expression au contre-pouvoir. Dans la mesure où il s’agit de concevoir la folie dans une perspective discursive, l’analyse a bénéficié des travaux de Foucault sur le domaine et contribue à l’avancée de la critique en privilégiant l’analyse littéraire de la représentation du fou et de son discours. Tout d’abord, l’analyse de La Fée aux Miettes de Nodier et de Louis Lambert de Balzac expose le discours aliéniste en rapport avec celui du fou, en considérant ce dernier comme un être non seulement malade, mais aussi sublime et exceptionnel. Le second chapitre montre comment les narrateurs de Mémoires d’un fou de Flaubert et Aurélia de Nerval rejettent la conception dominante de la folie en lui substituant leur propre conception, poétique et sublime, et en s’attaquant au terme lui-même, l’un par la multiplication de ses acceptions, l’autre par son éviction. Enfin, le troisième chapitre analyse Un Martyre dans une maison de fous de Karl-des-Monts, Mémoires d’une aliénée d’Hersilie Rouy et Un Beau-frère d’Hector Malot. Dans ces récits d’individus internés à l’asile, l’analyse dégage les moyens stylistiques par lesquels les narrateurs cherchent à invalider leur diagnostic de folie et dénoncer les défauts de l’aliénisme, tout en préservant leur individualité de la catégorisation médicale. La thèse montre comment la représentation de la folie et le discours du fou en tant que narrateur servent autant à la création littéraire qu’à l’établissement d’une conception de la folie alternative à celle proposée par l’aliénisme

Area-covering postprocessing of ensemble precipitation forecasts using topographical and seasonal conditions

Probabilistic weather forecasts from ensemble systems require statistical postprocessing to yield calibrated and sharp predictive distributions. This paper presents an area-covering postprocessing method for ensemble precipitation predictions. We rely on the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) approach, which generates probabilistic forecasts with a parametric distribution whose parameters depend on (statistics of) the ensemble prediction. A case study with daily precipitation predictions across Switzerland highlights that postprocessing at observation locations indeed improves high-resolution ensemble forecasts, with 4.5% CRPS reduction on average in the case of a lead time of 1 day. Our main aim is to achieve such an improvement without binding the model to stations, by leveraging topographical covariates. Specifically, regression coefficients are estimated by weighting the training data in relation to the topographical similarity between their station of origin and the prediction location. In our case study, this approach is found to reproduce the performance of the local model without using local historical data for calibration. We further identify that one key difficulty is that postprocessing often degrades the performance of the ensemble forecast during summer and early autumn. To mitigate, we additionally estimate on the training set whether postprocessing at a specific location is expected to improve the prediction. If not, the direct model output is used. This extension reduces the CRPS of the topographical model by up to another 1.7% on average at the price of a slight degradation in calibration. In this case, the highest improvement is achieved for a lead time of 4 days

Determinants of exclusive consumption of fluoride-free water: a cross-sectional household study in rural Ethiopia

Aim: The occurrence of high fluoride concentrations in the ground- and surface water all over the world leads to the risk of developing dental and skeletal fluorosis. In Ethiopia, 8 million people depend on water sources with excessive fluoride. In four project areas in the Ethiopian Rift Valley, fluoride removal household filters based on bone char media have been implemented. This study examines possible predictors of consuming filtered water derived from various behavior change theories. Subject and methods: In a complete cross-sectional survey, 160 filter users were interviewed through structured face-to-face interviews. A logistic regression was carried out to reveal factors predicting consumption of filtered water. Results: The results show that the consumption of fluoride-free water is mainly related to people's pride in offering filtered water to guests (status norm) and the feeling of being able to produce enough water with the filter (perceived behavioral control). Moreover, the study showed that the more filter users like the taste of filtered water and the more expensive they perceive the filter media, the more likely users will exclusively consume filtered water (attitudinal beliefs). Furthermore, perceiving the act of filling as a matter of habit (perceived habit) enhances filtered water consumption. Conclusion: Based on the results, possible intervention strategies to change the influential psychological factors and, hence, increase the consumption of treated water can be designe

Informatik in der Arztpraxis: Beispiel Medikamentenmanagement

Die Möglichkeiten des Informatikeinsatzes in der Arztpraxis sind weit umfassender und komplexer, als gemeinhin angenommen wird. Letztlich muss die Informatik uns in der ärztlichen tätigkeit unterstützen und sollte zur Effizienzsteigerung und/oder Qualitätssicherung beitragen

Eine gerechte Existenzsicherung als Fundament der öffentlichen Sozialhilfe

Die vorliegende Bachelor-Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Thematik einer gerechten Existenzsicherung als Fundament der öffentlichen Sozialhilfe. Auslöser für diese Arbeit sind die aktuellen Diskussionen über und die Angriffe auf die Ausgestaltung öffentlicher Sozialhilfe. Nach einer Darstellung der schweizerischen Sozialhilfe wird der Capability-Ansatz nach Amartya Sen und Martha C. Nussbaum skizziert. Dieser kann als gerechtigkeitstheoretischer Rahmen Sozialer Arbeit verstanden werden, da er sich in seinem Kern damit befasst, welche Möglichkeiten Menschen brauchen, um ihr individuell gutes Leben verwirklichen zu können. Basierend auf diesem theoretischen Rahmen, dem Tripelmandat und der sozialen Gerechtigkeit als zentraler Wert der Sozialen Arbeit sowie den Forderungen verschiedener Sozialhilfe-Organisationen werden Handlungsempfehlungen gegeben, um dem Anspruch nach Gerechtigkeit in der Sozialen Arbeit Rechnung zu tragen. Die Haupterkenntnis dieser Bachelor-Arbeit ist, dass die Erreichung einer gerechten Existenzsicherung voraussetzt, dass Armut nicht nur als Mangel an finanziellen Mitteln, sondern vor allem als fehlende Verwirklichungschance betrachtet werden sollte. Demzufolge ist die höhere Gewichtung der Beteiligungsgerechtigkeit in der Sozialhilfe unabdingbar

Weighted verification tools to evaluate univariate and multivariate probabilistic forecasts for high-impact weather events

To mitigate the impacts associated with adverse weather conditions, meteorological services issue weather warnings to the general public. These warnings rely heavily on forecasts issued by underlying prediction systems. When deciding which prediction system(s) to utilise to construct warnings, it is important to compare systems in their ability to forecast the occurrence and severity of extreme weather events. However, evaluating forecasts for extreme events is known to be a challenging task. This is exacerbated further by the fact that high-impact weather often manifests as a result of several confounding features, a realisation that has led to considerable research on so-called compound weather events. Both univariate and multivariate methods are therefore required to evaluate forecasts for high-impact weather. In this paper, we discuss weighted verification tools, which allow particular outcomes to be emphasised during forecast evaluation. We review and compare different approaches to construct weighted scoring rules, both in a univariate and multivariate setting, and we leverage existing results on weighted scores to introduce weighted probability integral transform (PIT) histograms, allowing forecast calibration to be assessed conditionally on particular outcomes having occurred. To illustrate the practical benefit afforded by these weighted verification tools, they are employed in a case study to evaluate forecasts for extreme heat events issued by the Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)