THE ROLE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN MANAGING RISK

Risk and Uncertainty,

An empirical study of the impacts of redevelopment project on property prices of residential buildings in Hong Kong

Thesis (B.Sc)--University of Hong Kong, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-102).published_or_final_versio

Antenatal Steroid Therapy for Fetal Lung Maturation and the Subsequent Risk of Childhood Asthma: A Longitudinal Analysis

This study was designed to test the hypothesis that fetal exposure to corticosteroids in the antenatal period is an independent risk factor for the development of asthma in early childhood with little or no effect in later childhood. A population-based cohort study of all pregnant women who resided in Nova Scotia, Canada, and gave birth to a singleton fetus between 1989 and 1998 was undertaken. After a priori specified exclusions, 80,448 infants were available for analysis. Using linked health care utilization records, incident asthma cases developed after 36 months of age were identified. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios while controlling for confounders. Exposure to corticosteroids during pregnancy was associated with a risk of asthma in childhood between 3–5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.39), with no association noted after 5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio for 5–7 years was 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.30) and for 8 or greater years was 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 1.03). Antenatal steroid therapy appears to be an independent risk factor for the development of asthma between 3 and 5 years of age

Polio Outbreak Response in Ethiopia

Background: Ethiopia had been polio-free for almost four years until December 2004. However, between December 2004 and February 2006, 24 children were paralysed as a result of infection with wild poliovirus imported from the neighbouring country of Sudan. In response, the country has attempted to document the impact of various response measures on the containment of wild poliovirus transmission. Objectives: This study aims at systematic and epidemiological assessment of the extent of the outbreak, its determinants, and the lessons learned as well as the implications for future control strategies to interrupt wild poliovirus transmission. Design: A cross-sectional study design with qualitative and quantitative data collection approaches was used to conduct the epidemiologic assessment. Subjects: All confirmed wild poliovirus cases, and reported acute flaccid paralysis cases in close proximity to the confirmed polio cases were the study subjects. Child caretakers and health service providers were interviewed as part of the investigation. Results: Between December 2004 and February 2006, eight children from Tigray Regional State, nine children from Amhara Regional State and seven children from Oromia Regional State were paralysed as a result of infection with wild poliovirus type 1. Genetic sequencing demonstrated two separate importations to Ethiopia. Risk factors that may have facilitated spread of the outbreak within the country included gaps in vaccination coverage and interruption of the cold chain system, gaps in acute flaccid paralysis surveillance performance, high population mobility, poor environmental sanitation, crowded living conditions and unsafe drinking water. In response to the outbreak, Ethiopia conducted detailed outbreak investigations within two days of confirmation of the index cases. Large-scale, house-to-house vaccination campaigns were also implemented. As a result, the three regions interrupted the wild poliovirus transmission within the regions within one year of confirmation of the index case. Conclusion: Outbreak response activities were successful in interrupting the imported wild poliovirus transmission in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia Regional States of Ethiopia within a oneyear period of time. In Ethiopia, programme strategies should be intensified to contain further spread and prevent future importation of wild poliovirus. Large-scale immunisation campaigns should reach every child, including those isolated by geography, poverty and security. East African Medical Journla Vol. 85 (5) 2008: pp. 222-23

Cryptosporidium in Calves, Lambs and Kids at Haramaya, eastern Ethiopia

A cross sectional study was carried out from November 2010 to April 2011 to determine the prevalence of Cryptosporidium in calves, lambs and kids and to assess potential risk factors in Haramaya, eastern Ethiopia. Hence, fecal samples from a total of 237 study animals (133 calves, 63 lambs and 41 kids) were tested with Sheather’s flotation technique and Modified Ziehl-Neelsen Staining. Accordingly, the overall prevalence was found to be 23.6% (56/237) with the prevalence of 27.8% (37/133) in calves, 22.2% (14/63) in lambs and 12.2% (5/41) in kids. The prevalence of Cryptosporidium significantly (p = 0.047) varied with species of study animals being three times higher likelihood of occurrence in calves compared to its chance of occurrence in kids (OR = 2.8, 95%CI = 1.0, 7.6). No significant difference in prevalence was observed between kids and lambs. The occurrence of the disease was also assessed among the species of animals by taking into consideration different demographic characteristic of the animals including breed, age and sex. For caprine, the prevalence was higher in the cross breed animals (28.6%) followed by the breed of Hararge highland (25%) with no report of the disease in Boer and Ogaden breeds. In ovine, no association was observed between the infection occurrence and the potential risk factors. Analysis of the risk factors in bovine revealed a significant (p = 0.044) difference in disease occurrence among age groups with almost three times more likelihood of the disease occurrence in calves under 3 months than older age category(OR = 2.9, 95%CI = 1.0, 8.2). In conclusion, this study demonstrated the importance of Cryptosporidium in young ruminants with a higher prevalence among calves than lambs and kids.Key words: Cryptosporidium; Prevalence; Risk Factors; Calves, Lambs, Kids, Haramaya, Ethiopi

Conservation and “land grabbing” in rangelands: Part of the problem or part of the solution?

Large-scale land acquisitions have increased in scale and pace due to changes in commodity markets, agricultural investment strategies, land prices, and a range of other policy and market forces. The areas most affected are the global “commons” – lands that local people traditionally use collectively — including much of the world’s forests, wetlands, and rangelands. In some cases land acquisition occurs with environmental objectives in sight – including the setting aside of land as protected areas for biodiversity conservation. On the other hand, current trends and patterns of commercial land acquisition present a major and growing threat not just to local livelihoods and human rights, but also to conservation objectives. There is a potential opportunity here for greater collaboration between conservation interests, and local communities’ land rights interests with their supporters amongst human rights and social justice movements. This Issue Paper documents experiences from the rangelands of Mongolia, Kenya, India, Ethiopia, and other countries, which were presented at a Conference on Conservation and Land Grabbing held in London in 2013

A randomized controlled trial of the effects of a prudent diet on cardiovascular risk factors, gene expression, and DNA methylation - the Diet and Genetic Intervention (DIGEST) Pilot study

Background Risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be increased by single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the 9p21 region of the genome. However, observational studies have shown that the deleterious effect of 9p21 SNPs on CVD might be offset by consuming a diet rich in fresh fruits and vegetables. This association may be driven by diet-influenced modifications in epigenetic and gene expression profiles. In this pilot study, we aimed to: i. test the feasibility of provision of a ‘Prudent’ and ‘Western’ diet outside of a specialized clinic, ii. assess the impact of each diet on cardiovascular risk factors. Methods A single centre, parallel two-arm, pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) with food provision was conducted in a university teaching hospital outpatient clinic (McMaster university, Hamilton, ON, Canada). The aim was to recruit 80 participants, which allowed for a 10 % dropout. The actual study consisted of 84 apparently healthy participants (69 % women, 18 to 77 years) at low cardiovascular risk. Participants were randomly assigned to follow one of two weight-maintaining diets: ‘Prudent’ or ‘Western’ for 2-weeks. The Prudent diet provided 92 % of provided food consumed). The Prudent diet was 48 % more palatable than the Western diet (P < 0.05). Participants receiving the Prudent diet showed a trend toward reduced systolic (-4 mmHg; P = 0.10) and diastolic (-3 mmHg; P = 0.07) blood pressure, and total cholesterol (-0.24 mmol/L; P = 0.08), compared to individuals receiving the Western diet. Data collection from all randomized participants was completed within 18 months. Conclusions Recruitment, and retention of apparently healthy, normotensive adults into a feeding study for a 2-week duration is feasible outside of specialized dietary clinic, and modest diet-related changes in biomarkers begin to appear after two weeks

Comparing the Efficacy of Electrocardiographic Leads in Recovery Phase in Detecting Coronary Artery Disease in Women

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