Idealized model for changes in equilibrium temperature, mixed layer depth, and boundary layer cloud over land in a doubled CO2 climate

An idealized equilibrium model for the undisturbed partly cloudy boundary layer (BL) is used as a framework to explore the coupling of the energy, water, and carbon cycles over land in midlatitudes and show the sensitivity to the clear‐sky shortwave flux, the midtropospheric temperature, moisture, CO2, and subsidence. The changes in the surface fluxes, the BL equilibrium, and cloud cover are shown for a warmer, doubled CO2 climate. Reduced stomatal conductance in a simple vegetation model amplifies the background 2 K ocean temperature rise to an (unrealistically large) 6 K increase in near‐surface temperature over land, with a corresponding drop of near‐surface relative humidity of about 19%, and a rise of cloud base of about 70 hPa. Cloud changes depend strongly on changes of mean subsidence; but evaporative fraction (EF) decreases. EF is almost uniquely related to mixed layer (ML) depth, independent of background forcing climate. This suggests that it might be possible to infer EF for heterogeneous landscapes from ML depth. The asymmetry of increased evaporation over the oceans and reduced transpiration over land increases in a warmer doubled CO2 climate

A cloudiness transition in a marine boundary layer

Boundary layer cloudiness plays several important roles in the energy budget of the earth. Low level stratocumulus are highly reflective clouds which reduce the net incoming shortwave radiation at the earth's surface. Climatically, the transition to a small area fraction of scattered cumulus clouds occurs as the air flows over warmer water. Although these clouds reflect less sunlight, they still play an important role in the boundary layer equilibrium by transporting water vapor upwards, and enhancing the surface evaporation. The First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) included a marine stratocumulus experiment off the southern California coast from June 29 to July 19, 1987. The objectives of this experiment were to study the controls on fractional cloudiness, and to assess the role of cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) and mesoscale structure in determining cloud type. The focus is one research day, July 7, 1987, when coordinated aircraft missions were flown by four research aircraft, centered on a LANDSAT scene at 1830 UTC. The remarkable feature of this LANDSAT scene is the transition from a clear sky in the west through broken cumulus to solid stratocumulus in the east. The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of this transition in cloudiness is analyzed using data from the NCAR Electra. By averaging the aircraft data, the internal structure of the different cloud regimes is documented, and it is shown that the transition between broken cumulus and stratocumulus is associated with a change in structure with respect to the CTEI condition. However, this results not from sea surface temperature changes, but mostly from a transition in the air above the inversion, and the breakup appears to be at a structure on the unstable side of the wet virtual adiabat

Mesoscale characteristics of cumulus convection: a mesoscale budget study of convection in the NHRE network

February 1976.Includes bibliographical references.Sponsored by the National Science Foundation OCD72-01406

Thermodynamic structure of the stratocumulus-capped boundary layer on 7 July, 1987

As part of project First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE), a mission was carried out on 7 July 1987 to study the thermodynamic structure of a boundary layer which is in transition from a clear to a cloudy state. The National Center for Aeronautical Research (NCAR) Electra flew a pattern in tight coordination with the NASA ER-2 aircraft near 122 West, 31.6 North off the coast of California. A description is given here of the thermodynamic structure. The purpose is to derive the entrainment rate and the fluxes of the thermodynamic variables. To this end researchers represent the data in conserved variable diagrams

Cumulus parameterization theory in terms of feedback and control

June 1974.Includes bibliographical references.Sponsored by NSF GA-33182

Characteristics of tropical squall-lines over Venezuela

July 1974.Includes bibliographical references.Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Atmospheric Sciences Section GA-33182

Triggering Deep Convection with a Probabilistic Plume Model

A model unifying the representation of the planetary boundary layer and dry, shallow and deep convection, the Probabilistic Plume Model (PPM), is presented. Its capacity to reproduce the triggering of deep convection over land is analysed in detail. The model accurately reproduces the timing of shallow convection and of deep convection onset over land, which is a major issue in many current general climate models. The PPM is based on a distribution of plumes with varying thermodynamic states (potential temperature and specific humidity) induced by surface layer turbulence. Precipitation is computed by a simple ice microphysics, and with the onset of precipitation, downdrafts are initiated and lateral entrainment of environmental air into updrafts is reduced. The most buoyant updrafts are responsible for the triggering of moist convection, causing the rapid growth of clouds and precipitation. Organization of turbulence in the subcloud layer is induced by unsaturated downdrafts, and the effect of density currents is modeled through a reduction of the lateral entrainment. The reduction of entrainment induces further development from the precipitating congestus phase to full deep cumulonimbus. Model validation is performed by comparing cloud base, cloud top heights, timing of precipitation and environmental profiles against cloud resolving models and large-eddy simulations for two test cases. These comparisons demonstrate that PPM triggers deep convection at the proper time in the diurnal cycle, and produces reasonable precipitation. On the other hand, PPM underestimates cloud top height

Characterization of increased persistence and intensity of precipitation in the northeastern United States

We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region‐wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing an increase in the magnitude of high‐intensity precipitation events. The largest increases in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation occurred in April with a trend of +0.7 mm/d/decade. We discuss the implications of the observed precipitation signals for watershed hydrology and flood risk

Bridging the Climate Information Gap: A Framework for Engaging Knowledge Brokers and Decision Makers in State Climate Assessments

Large-scale analyses like the National Climate Assessment (NCA) contain a wealth of information critical to national and regional responses to climate change but tend to be insufficiently detailed for action at state or local levels. Many states now engage in assessment processes to meet information needs for local authorities. The goals of state climate assessments (SCAs) should be to provide relevant, actionable information to state and local authorities, and to generate primary sources, build networks and inform stakeholders. To communicate local climate impacts to decision makers, SCAs should express credibility, salience and legitimacy. They can provide information (e.g., case studies, data sets) and connect stakeholders to the NCA and its process. Based on our experience in the Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA), we present a framework to engage decision makers in SCAs using a fluid network of scientific experts and knowledge brokers to conduct subject area prioritization, data analysis and writing. The VCA addressed economic, environmental and social impacts of climate change at local scales to increase resiliency and manage risk. Knowledge brokers communicated VCA findings through their own stakeholder networks. We include a qualitative impact evaluation, and believe our framework for interaction among scientists, knowledge brokers and stakeholders to be an effective structure for SCAs and a transformative experience for students

Evaluation of daily precipitation from the era5 global reanalysis against ghcn observations in the northeastern united states

Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Precipitation is a primary input for hydrologic, agricultural, and engineering models, so making accurate estimates of it across the landscape is critically important. While the distribution of in-situ measurements of precipitation can lead to challenges in spatial interpolation, gridded precipitation information is designed to produce a full coverage product. In this study, we compare daily precipitation accumulations from the ERA5 Global Reanalysis (hereafter ERA5) and the US Global Historical Climate Network (hereafter GHCN) across the northeastern United States. We find that both the distance from the Atlantic Coast and elevation difference between ERA5 estimates and GHCN observations affect precipitation relationships between the two datasets. ERA5 has less precipitation along the coast than GHCN observations but more precipitation inland. Elevation differences between ERA5 and GHCN observations are positively correlated with precipitation differences. Isolated GHCN stations on mountain peaks, with elevations well above the ERA5 model grid elevation, have much higher precipitation. Summer months (June, July, and August) have slightly less precipitation in ERA5 than GHCN observations, perhaps due to the ERA5 convective parameterization scheme. The heavy precipitation accumulation above the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentile thresholds are very similar for ERA5 and the GHCN. We find that daily precipitation in the ERA5 dataset is comparable to GHCN observations in the northeastern United States and its gridded spatial continuity has advantages over in-situ point precipitation measurements for regional modeling applications