Assessing Invasive Alien Species Across Multiple Spatial Scales: Working Globally and Locally

Quantitative investigations on invasive alien species (IAS) across multiple spatial scales are needed because biological invasions often encompass enormous expanses in both donor and invaded ranges and because the immigrants may be carried great distances between these ranges. Although invasion biology is rich in anecdotes, translation of this information into generalizations remains limited by technical shortcomings in data acquisition, inconsistent data assembly, and the continuing search for meaningful indices of the impact of IAS. Much better justification of and greater opportunities to combat IAS could be achieved by distilling all information for IAS into spatially explicit case histories and synthetic predictions on the epidemiology and consequences of biological invasions for public review, discussion, and action. Las investigaciones cuantitativas sobre las especies exóticas invasoras (EEI) a través de numerosas escalas espaciales son necesarias porque las invasiones biológicas abarcan a menudo enormes extensiones, tanto en las áreas de distribución originales como en las áreas invadidas, y porque estos inmigrantes pueden ser transportados a través de grandes distancias entre estas áreas. Aunque la biología de las invasiones es rica en anécdotas, la conversión de esta información en generalizaciones todavía está limitada por deficiencias técnicas en la adquisición de los datos, inconsistencias en el ensamblaje de los datos, y la búsqueda continua de índices significativos del impacto de las EEI. Se podría alcanzar una mejor justificación y mejores oportunidades de combatir a las EEI destilando toda la información de las EEI en estudios de caso espacialmente explícitos y predicciones sintéticas sobre la epidemiología y las consecuencias de las invasiones biológicas para la revisión pública, la discusión y la acción

Saving camels from straws: how propagule pressure-based prevention policies can reduce the risk of biological invasion

Nonnative species that harm or have the potential to cause harm to the environment, economy, or human health are known as invasive species. Propagule pressure may be the most important factor in establishment success of nonnative species of various taxa in a variety of ecosystems worldwide, and strong evidence is emerging that propagule pressure determines both the scale of invasion extent and impact. In a limited way, the US government is applying a “propagule pressure approach” in a variety of prevention policy contexts aimed at minimizing the impact of harmful organisms. However, there are also readily apparent opportunities for enacting propagule pressure-based measures to fill current gaps in invasive species prevention and control at national, state, and local levels. An explicit focus on propagule pressure-based policies could substantially increase the effectiveness of US efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive species through by intentional and unintentional introductions

Investigation of the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Sea Turtle, Shorebird, Seabird, and Beach Mouse Nesting Distributions Within the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Region

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Economic Impacts of Non-Native Forest Insects in the Continental United States

Reliable estimates of the impacts and costs of biological invasions are critical to developing credible management, trade and regulatory policies. Worldwide, forests and urban trees provide important ecosystem services as well as economic and social benefits, but are threatened by non-native insects. More than 450 non-native forest insects are established in the United States but estimates of broad-scale economic impacts associated with these species are largely unavailable. We developed a novel modeling approach that maximizes the use of available data, accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty, and provides cost estimates for three major feeding guilds of non-native forest insects. For each guild, we calculated the economic damages for five cost categories and we estimated the probability of future introductions of damaging pests. We found that costs are largely borne by homeowners and municipal governments. Wood- and phloem-boring insects are anticipated to cause the largest economic impacts by annually inducing nearly $1.7 billion in local government expenditures and approximately$830 million in lost residential property values. Given observations of new species, there is a 32% chance that another highly destructive borer species will invade the U.S. in the next 10 years. Our damage estimates provide a crucial but previously missing component of cost-benefit analyses to evaluate policies and management options intended to reduce species introductions. The modeling approach we developed is highly flexible and could be similarly employed to estimate damages in other countries or natural resource sectors

Climatic Variability Leads to Later Seasonal Flowering of Floridian Plants

Understanding species responses to global change will help predict shifts in species distributions as well as aid in conservation. Changes in the timing of seasonal activities of organisms over time may be the most responsive and easily observable indicator of environmental changes associated with global climate change. It is unknown how global climate change will affect species distributions and developmental events in subtropical ecosystems or if climate change will differentially favor nonnative species. Contrary to previously observed trends for earlier flowering onset of plant species with increasing spring temperatures from mid and higher latitudes, we document a trend for delayed seasonal flowering among plants in Florida. Additionally, there were few differences in reproductive responses by native and nonnative species to climatic changes. We argue that plants in Florida have different reproductive cues than those from more northern climates. With global change, minimum temperatures have become more variable within the temperate-subtropical zone that occurs across the peninsula and this variation is strongly associated with delayed flowering among Florida plants. Our data suggest that climate change varies by region and season and is not a simple case of species responding to consistently increasing temperatures across the region. Research on climate change impacts need to be extended outside of the heavily studied higher latitudes to include subtropical and tropical systems in order to properly understand the complexity of regional and seasonal differences of climate change on species responses

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Economic Impacts of Non-Native Forest Insects in the Continental United States

Reliable estimates of the impacts and costs of biological invasions are critical to developing credible management, trade and regulatory policies. Worldwide, forests and urban trees provide important ecosystem services as well as economic and social benefits, but are threatened by non-native insects. More than 450 non-native forest insects are established in the United States but estimates of broad-scale economic impacts associated with these species are largely unavailable. We developed a novel modeling approach that maximizes the use of available data, accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty, and provides cost estimates for three major feeding guilds of non-native forest insects. For each guild, we calculated the economic damages for five cost categories and we estimated the probability of future introductions of damaging pests. We found that costs are largely borne by homeowners and municipal governments. Wood- and phloem-boring insects are anticipated to cause the largest economic impacts by annually inducing nearly $1.7 billion in local government expenditures and approximately$830 million in lost residential property values. Given observations of new species, there is a 32% chance that another highly destructive borer species will invade the U.S. in the next 10 years. Our damage estimates provide a crucial but previously missing component of cost-benefit analyses to evaluate policies and management options intended to reduce species introductions. The modeling approach we developed is highly flexible and could be similarly employed to estimate damages in other countries or natural resource sectors

Alternative futures for global biological invasions

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways; in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments

The National Early Warning Score and its subcomponents recorded within ±24 hours of emergency medical admission are poor predictors of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury

YesBackground: Hospital-acquired Acute Kidney Injury (H-AKI) is a common cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality. Aim: To determine if the patients’ vital signs data as defined by a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), can predict H-AKI following emergency admission to hospital. Methods: Analyses of emergency admissions to York hospital over 24-months with NEWS data. We report the area under the curve (AUC) for logistic regression models that used the index NEWS (model A0), plus age and sex (A1), plus subcomponents of NEWS (A2) and two-way interactions (A3). Likewise for maximum NEWS (models B0,B1,B2,B3). Results: 4.05% (1361/33608) of emergency admissions had H-AKI. Models using the index NEWS had the lower AUCs (0.59 to 0.68) than models using the maximum NEWS AUCs (0.75 to 0.77). The maximum NEWS model (B3) was more sensitivity than the index NEWS model (A0) (67.60% vs 19.84%) but identified twice as many cases as being at risk of H-AKI (9581 vs 4099) at a NEWS of 5. Conclusions: The index NEWS is a poor predictor of H-AKI. The maximum NEWS is a better predictor but seems unfeasible because it is only knowable in retrospect and is associated with a substantial increase in workload albeit with improved sensitivity.The Health Foundatio

Environmental Stress Alters Native-Nonnative Relationships At The Community Scale

The invasion of natural habitats by nonnative species is affected by both native biodiversity and environmental conditions; however few tests of facilitation between native community members and nonnative species have been conducted along disturbance and stress gradients. There is strong evidence for an increase in facilitation between native plant species with increasing levels of natural environmental stress, however it is unknown whether these same positive interactions occur between nonnative invaders and native communities. I investigated the effects of natural stress on community interactions between native heathland species and nonnative species with two field studies conducted at the landscape and community scale. At the landscape scale of investigation, nonnative species richness was positively related to native species richness. At the community level, nonnative invaders experienced facilitation with natives in the most stressful zones, whereas they experienced competition with native plants in the less stressful zones of the heathlands. Due to the observational nature of the landscape scale data, it is unclear whether nonnative diversity levels are responding positively to extrinsic factors or to native biodiversity. The experimental component of this research suggests that native community members may ameliorate stressful environmental conditions and facilitate invasion into high stress areas. I present a conceptual model which is a modification of the Shea and Chesson diversity-invasibility model and includes both facilitation as well as competition between the native community and nonnative invaders at the community level, summing to an overall positive relationship at the landscape scale. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media B.V