The 2004 Niger Food Crisis: What Role Can Price Discovery Play in Famine Early Warning Systems?

The 2005 food crisis centered in Niger received worldwide attention and extensive media coverage. Crops suffered from poor rainfall and were plagued by locusts throughout the growing season. Malnutrition flourished with the sudden disruption in food supplies. One-fifth of Niger's children suffered from moderate to severe forms of malnutrition by the summer of 2005. In an era of increased awareness and the introduction of famine early warning systems, the development community was left wondering why they were for the most part caught off guard by the food crisis. This paper tests whether market prices and price discovery could have played an active role in detecting the food crisis. Directed acyclic graphs are used to test whether price discovery mechanisms within Niger's millet markets were ahead of the early warning systems. Results suggest that as early as October 2005 markets in Arlit and the Dosso province had price anomalies that appeared to begin signaling the upcoming food crisis. This market based discovery came about two months earlier than the warnings issued by the regional early warning networks.Food Security and Poverty,

Potential Impacts of Food Borne Ill Incidence on Market Movements and Prices of Fresh Produce in the US

For many decades, fresh fruits and vegetables enjoyed a reputation as the healthiest products full of essential vitamins, minerals, and other beneficial substances for a balanced diet. However, numerous recent food outbreaks associated with fresh produce have raised concerns on the mind of the consumer. Following an outbreak, consumers reduce their immediate consumption of the affected products. Even tough fresh fruits and vegetables have unique characteristics and flavors, consumers tend to substitute affected outbreak products with other fruits and vegetables. The potential impact of food borne illness on consumption has also a longer term impact, reducing consumption of the products over a period of several months after the outbreak. This paper used historical decomposition analysis to study both, the contemporaneous and lagged effects of food borne illness in the fresh produce industry using three case studies, spinach, cantaloupes, and tomatoes.Food safety, fresh produce, historical decomposition, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Diagnosis and Treatment of Pediatric Acquired Aplastic Anemia (AAA): An Initial Survey of the North American Pediatric Aplastic Anemia Consortium (NAPAAC)

BackgroundRandomized clinical trials in pediatric aplastic anemia (AA) are rare and data to guide standards of care are scarce. ProcedureEighteen pediatric institutions formed the North American Pediatric Aplastic Anemia Consortium to foster collaborative studies in AA. The initial goal of NAPAAC was to survey the diagnostic studies and therapies utilized in AA. ResultsOur survey indicates considerable variability among institutions in the diagnosis and treatment of AA. There were areas of general consensus, including the need for a bone marrow evaluation, cytogenetic and specific fluorescent in situ hybridization assays to establish diagnosis and exclude genetic etiologies with many institutions requiring results prior to initiation of immunosuppressive therapy (IST); uniform referral for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation as first line therapy if an HLA-identical sibling is identified; the use of first-line IST containing horse anti-thymocyte globulin and cyclosporine A (CSA) if an HLA-identical sibling donor is not identified; supportive care measures; and slow taper of CSA after response. Areas of controversy included the need for telomere length results prior to IST, the time after IST initiation defining a treatment failure; use of hematopoietic growth factors; the preferred rescue therapy after failure of IST; the use of specific hemoglobin and platelet levels as triggers for transfusion support; the use of prophylactic antibiotics; and follow-up monitoring after completion of treatment. ConclusionsThese initial survey results reflect heterogeneity in diagnosis and care amongst pediatric centers and emphasize the need to develop evidence-based diagnosis and treatment approaches in this rare disease. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2014;61:869-874. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc

Characterization of time-resolved laser differential phase using 3D complementary cumulative distribution functions

An experimental method for characterizing the time-resolved phase noise of a fast switching tunable laser is discussed. The method experimentally determines a complementary cumulative distribution function of the laser's differential phase as a function of time after a switching event. A time resolved bit error rate of differential quadrature phase shift keying formatted data, calculated using the phase noise measurements, was fitted to an experimental time-resolved bit error rate measurement using a field programmable gate array, finding a good agreement between the time-resolved bit error rates

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks

Neurofibromin Deficient Myeloid Cells are Critical Mediators of Aneurysm Formation In Vivo

Background Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) is a genetic disorder resulting from mutations in the NF1 tumor suppressor gene. Neurofibromin, the protein product of NF1, functions as a negative regulator of Ras activity in circulating hematopoietic and vascular wall cells, which are critical for maintaining vessel wall homeostasis. NF1 patients have evidence of chronic inflammation resulting in development of premature cardiovascular disease, including arterial aneurysms, which may manifest as sudden death. However, the molecular pathogenesis of NF1 aneurysm formation is unknown. Method and Results Utilizing an angiotensin II-induced aneurysm model, we demonstrate that heterozygous inactivation of Nf1 (Nf1+/−) enhanced aneurysm formation with myeloid cell infiltration and increased oxidative stress in the vessel wall. Using lineage-restricted transgenic mice, we show loss of a single Nf1 allele in myeloid cells is sufficient to recapitulate the Nf1+/− aneurysm phenotype in vivo. Finally, oral administration of simvastatin or the antioxidant apocynin, reduced aneurysm formation in Nf1+/− mice. Conclusion These data provide genetic and pharmacologic evidence that Nf1+/− myeloid cells are the cellular triggers for aneurysm formation in a novel model of NF1 vasculopathy and provide a potential therapeutic target

Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH): higher sensitivity and validity in diagnosis and serial monitoring by flow cytometric analysis of reticulocytes

Flow cytometric analysis of GPI-anchored proteins (GPI-AP) is the gold standard for diagnosis of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). Due to therapy options and the relevance of GPI-deficient clones for prognosis in aplastic anaemia detection of PNH is gaining importance. However, no generally accepted standard has been established. This study analysed the usefulness of a flow cytometric panel with CD58, CD59 on reticulocytes and erythrocytes, CD24/CD66b and CD16, FLAER on granulocytes and CD14, and CD48 on monocytes. Actual cut-off (mean + 2 SD) for GPI-deficient cells was established in healthy blood donors. We studied 1,296 flow cytometric results of 803 patients. Serial monitoring was analysed during a median follow-up of 1,039 days in 155 patients. Of all, 22% and 48% of 155 follow-up patients. showed significant GPI-AP-deficiency at time of initial analyses. During follow-up in 9%, a new PNH diagnosis, and in 28%, a significant change of size or lineage involvement was demonstrated. Highly significant correlations for GPI-AP deficiency were found within one cell lineage (r2 = 0.61–0.95, p < 0.0001) and between the different cell lineages (r2 = 0.49–0.88, p < 0.0001). Especially for detection of small GPI-deficient populations, reticulocytes and monocytes proved to be sensitive diagnostic tools. Our data showed superiority of reticulocyte analyses compared with erythrocyte analyses due to transfusion and hemolysis independency especially in cases with small GPI-deficient populations. In conclusion, a screening panel of at least two different GPI-AP markers on granulocytes, erythrocytes, and reticulocytes provides a simple and rapid method to detect even small GPI-deficient populations. Among the markers in our panel, CD58 and CD59 on reticulocytes, CD24/66b, and eventually FLAER on granulocytes as well as CD14 on monocytes were most effective for flow cytometric diagnosis of GPI deficiency

A mutation in a functional Sp1 binding site of the telomerase RNA gene (hTERC) promoter in a patient with Paroxysmal Nocturnal Haemoglobinuria

BACKGROUND: Mutations in the gene coding for the RNA component of telomerase, hTERC, have been found in autosomal dominant dyskeratosis congenita (DC) and aplastic anemia. Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is a clonal blood disorder associated with aplastic anemia and characterized by the presence of one or more clones of blood cells lacking glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) anchored proteins due to a somatic mutation in the PIGA gene. METHODS: We searched for mutations in DNA extracted from PNH patients by amplification of the hTERC gene and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography (dHPLC). After a mutation was found in a potential transcription factor binding site in one patient electrophoretic mobility shift assays were used to detect binding of transcription factors to that site. The effect of the mutation on the function of the promoter was tested by transient transfection constructs in which the promoter is used to drive a reporter gene. RESULTS: Here we report the finding of a novel promoter mutation (-99C->G) in the hTERC gene in a patient with PNH. The mutation disrupts an Sp1 binding site and destroys its ability to bind Sp1. Transient transfection assays show that mutations in this hTERC site including C-99G cause either up- or down-regulation of promoter activity and suggest that the site regulates core promoter activity in a context dependent manner in cancer cells. CONCLUSIONS: These data are the first report of an hTERC promoter mutation from a patient sample which can modulate core promoter activity in vitro, raising the possibility that the mutation may affect the transcription of the gene in hematopoietic stem cells in vivo, and that dysregulation of telomerase may play a role in the development of bone marrow failure and the evolution of PNH clones