How to average logarithmic retrievals?

Calculation of mean trace gas contributions from profiles obtained by retrievals of the logarithm of the abundance rather than retrievals of the abundance itself are prone to biases. By means of a system simulator, biases of linear versus logarithmic averaging were evaluated for both maximum likelihood and maximum a priori retrievals, for various signal to noise ratios and atmospheric variabilities. These biases can easily reach ten percent or more. As a rule of thumb we found for maximum likelihood retrievals that linear averaging better represents the true mean value in cases of large local natural variability and high signal to noise ratios, while for small local natural variability logarithmic averaging often is superior. In the case of maximum a posteriori retrievals, the mean is dominated by the a priori information used in the retrievals and the method of averaging is of minor concern. For larger natural variabilities, the appropriateness of the one or the other method of averaging depends on the particular case because the various biasing mechanisms partly compensate in an unpredictable manner. This complication arises mainly because of the fact that in logarithmic retrievals the weight of the prior information depends on abundance of the gas itself. No simple rule was found on which kind of averaging is superior, and instead of suggesting simple recipes we cannot do much more than to create awareness of the traps related with averaging of mixing ratios obtained from logarithmic retrievals.The authors like to thank the Toronto SPARC office and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) in Berne for hosting team meetings where the issue of this paper became evident and for providing generous travel support. The authors would also like to thank the team members of the SPARC Data Initiative led by Michaela Hegglin and Susann Tegtmeier for triggering our interest in this interesting problem, and Charles Jackman for kindly providing WACCM model results. BF was supported by by the Spanish MICINN under project AYA2008-03498/ESP and project 200950I081 of CSIC.Peer Reviewe

MIPAS IMK/IAA CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) measurements: accuracy, precision and long-term stability

Eckert, E. et. al.Profiles of CFC-11 (CCl3F) and CFC-12 (CCl2F2) of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) aboard the European satellite Envisat have been retrieved from versions MIPAS/4.61 to MIPAS/ 4.62 and MIPAS/5.02 to MIPAS/5.06 level-1b data using the scientific level-2 processor run by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA). These profiles have been compared to measurements taken by the balloon-borne cryosampler, Mark IV (MkIV) and MIPAS-Balloon (MIPAS-B), the airborne MIPAS-STRatospheric aircraft (MIPAS-STR), the satellite-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), as well as the groundbased Halocarbon and other Atmospheric Trace Species (HATS) network for the reduced spectral resolution period (RR: January 2005-April 2012) of MIPAS. ACE-FTS, MkIV and HATS also provide measurements during the high spectral resolution period (full resolution, FR: July 2002-March 2004) and were used to validate MIPAS CFC-11 and CFC-12 products during that time, as well as profiles from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer, ILAS-II. In general, we find that MIPAS shows slightly higher values for CFC-11 at the lower end of the profiles (below ∼15 km) and in a comparison of HATS ground-based data and MIPAS measurements at 3 km below the tropopause. Differences range from approximately 10 to 50 pptv (∼5-20 %) during the RR period. In general, differences are slightly smaller for the FR period. An indication of a slight high bias at the lower end of the profile exists for CFC-12 as well, but this bias is far less pronounced than for CFC-11 and is not as obvious in the relative differences between MIPAS and any of the comparison instruments. Differences at the lower end of the profile (below ∼15 km) and in the comparison of HATS and MIPAS measurements taken at 3 km below the tropopause mainly stay within 10-50 pptv (corresponding to ∼2-10%for CFCPublished 12) for the RR and the FR period. Between ∼15 and 30 km, most comparisons agree within 10-20 pptv (10-20 %), apart from ILAS-II, which shows large differences above ∼17 km. Overall, relative differences are usually smaller for CFC-12 than for CFC-11. For both species - CFC-11 and CFC-12 - we find that differences at the lower end of the profile tend to be larger at higher latitudes than in tropical and subtropical regions. In addition, MIPAS profiles have a maximum in their mixing ratio around the tropopause, which is most obvious in tropical mean profiles. Comparisons of the standard deviation in a quiescent atmosphere (polar summer) show that only the CFC-12 FR error budget can fully explain the observed variability, while for the other products (CFC-11 FR and RR and CFC-12 RR) only two-thirds to three-quarters can be explained. Investigations regarding the temporal stability show very small negative drifts in MIPAS CFC-11 measurements. These instrument drifts vary between ∼1 and 3% decade-1. For CFC-12, the drifts are also negative and close to zero up to ∼30 km. Above that altitude, larger drifts of up to ∼50% decade-1 appear which are negative up to ∼35 km and positive, but of a similar magnitude, above. © Author(s) 2016.IMK data analysis was supported by DLR under contract number 50EE0901. MIPAS level 1B data were provided by ESA. We acknowledge support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and Open Access Publishing Fund of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), also known as SCISAT, is a Canadian-led mission mainly supported by the Canadian Space Agency and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Work at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, was carried out under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Data collection and analysis of MIPAS-STR data used here were supported by the EU-project RECONCILE (grant no. 15 226365-FP7-ENV-2008-1) and the BMBF-project ENVIVAL-Life (DLR grant no. 50EE0841).Peer reviewe

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

Funke, B. et. al..--This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx D NO+NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMO-NIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NO x tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with mediumtop models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of- the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.This work has been conducted in the frame of the WCRP/ SPARC SOLARIS-HEPPA activity. The IAA team was supported by the Spanish MCINN under grant ESP2014-54362-P and EC FEDER funds. The MPI-MET team was supported by the Max Planck Gesellschaft (MPG), and computational resources were made available by Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ) through support from Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF). The FMI team was supported by the Academy of Finland through the projects 276926 (SECTIC: Sun-Earth Connection Through Ion Chemistry), 258165, and 265005 (CLASP: Climate and Solar Particle Forcing). CAO team was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under grant 15-17-10024. SOCOL team was funded by Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) grants 200021-149182 (SILA), 200020-163206 (SIMA), and CRSII2-147659 (FUPSOL-II). S. Bender, M. Sinnhuber, and H. Nieder (all KIT) gratefully acknowledge funding by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (HGF), grant VH-NG-624. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF). Computing resources for WACCM simulations were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the NSF and other agencies. Work at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, was carried out under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), also known as SciSat, is a Canadian-led mission mainly supported by the Canadian Space Agency. Odin is a Swedish-led satellite project funded jointly by Sweden (SNSB), Canada (CSA), Finland (TEKES), and France (CNES) and is part of European Space Agency's (ESA) third-party mission program. We thank two anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions that led to improvements in the quality of the present work.Peer reviewe

Energetic particle precipitation: A major driver of the ozone budget in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

Geomagnetic activity is thought to affect ozone and, possibly, climate in polar regions via energetic particle precipitation (EPP) but observational evidence of its importance in the seasonal stratospheric ozone variation on long time scales is still lacking. Here we fill this gap by showing that at high southern latitudes, late winter ozone series, covering the 1979-2014 period, exhibit an average stratospheric depletion of about 10-15% on a monthly basis caused by EPP. Daily observations indicate that every austral winter EPP-induced low ozone concentrations appear at about 45 km in late June and descend later to 30 km, before disappearing by September. Such stratospheric variations are coupled with mesospheric ozone changes also driven by EPP. No significant correlation between these ozone variations and solar ultraviolet irradiance has been found. This suggests the need of including the EPP forcing in both ozone model simulations and trend analysis. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.The present study was supported by the SOUSEI program, MEXT, JAPAN. The IAA team was supported by the Spanish MINECO under grant ESP2014-54362-P and EC FEDER funds. Work at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, was done under contract with NASA. The Chilean team was supported by FONDECYT (1140239)Peer Reviewe