Detecting Bioterror Attacks by Screening Blood Donors: A Best-Case Analysis

To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack would likely exhibit symptoms before the attack was detected through blood donor screening. For example, an attack infecting 100 persons with a noncontagious agent such as Bacillus anthracis would only have a 26% chance of being detected within 25 days; yet, at an assumed additional charge of $10 per test, donor screening would cost$139 million per year. Furthermore, even if screening tests were 99.99% specific, 1,390 false-positive results would occur each year. Therefore, screening blood donors for bioterror agents should not be used to detect a bioterror attack

Detecting Bioterror Attacks by Screening Blood Donors: A Best-Case Analysis

To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack would likely exhibit symptoms before the attack was detected through blood donor screening. For example, an attack infecting 100 persons with a noncontagious agent such as Bacillus anthracis would only have a 26% chance of being detected within 25 days; yet, at an assumed additional charge of $10 per test, donor screening would cost$139 million per year. Furthermore, even if screening tests were 99.99% specific, 1,390 false-positive results would occur each year. Therefore, screening blood donors for bioterror agents should not be used to detect a bioterror attack

The effect of perception of teacher characteristics on Spanish EFL Learners’ anxiety and enjoyment

The present study explores the relationship between Foreign Language Enjoyment (FLE) and Foreign Language Classroom Anxiety (FLCA) and a number of teacher-centered variables within the Spanish classroom context. Participants were 210 former and current EFL learners from all over Spain who filled out an online questionnaire with Likert scale items. A moderate negative relationship emerged between FLE and FLCA. Participants who had a L1 user of English as teacher reported more FLE and less FLCA than those with a foreign language user of English. Teacher characteristics predicted close to 20% of variance in FLE but only 8% of variance in FLCA. The strongest positive predictor of FLE was teacher’s friendliness while teacher’s foreign accent was a weaker negative predictor. Teacher-centered variables predicted much less variance for FLCA. Participants experienced more FLCA with younger teachers, very strict teachers and teachers who did not use the FL much in class. The findings confirm earlier research that FLE seems to be more dependent on the teachers’ pedagogical skills than FLCA (Dewaele & MacIntyre, 2019a; Dewaele et al., 2018)

Learning in the chaos: A political economy analysis of education in Afghanistan

© 2018, The Author(s) 2018. Afghanistan is often characterised as a ‘failed’ or ‘fragile’ state in terms of state ‘functionality’, lacking in capacity to provide security and wellbeing to its citizens and failing to prevent violent conflict and terrorism. Since 2001, education has become a major victim of Afghanistan’s protracted crisis that involves international military interventions, fragile democracy and growing radicalisation. Drawing upon qualitative interviews with educational officials and practitioners in Afghanistan and critically examining the literature in education and conflict, we argue that Afghanistan’s education is caught in the nexus between deteriorating security conditions, weak governance and widespread corruption, resulting in rebel capture of educational spaces for radicalisation and violent extremism. More broadly, we contend that education faces the risk of capture for radicalisation in contexts where state fragility and fundamentalism intersect. Finally, we highlight some critical issues relating to educational programming in conflict-affected contexts

Re-emergence of tularemia in Germany: Presence of <it>Francisella tularensis </it>in different rodent species in endemic areas

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tularemia re-emerged in Germany starting in 2004 (with 39 human cases from 2004 to 2007) after over 40 years of only sporadic human infections. The reasons for this rise in case numbers are unknown as is the possible reservoir of the etiologic agent <it>Francisella (F.) tularensis</it>. No systematic study on the reservoir situation of <it>F. tularensis </it>has been published for Germany so far.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated three areas six to ten months after the initial tularemia outbreaks for the presence of <it>F. tularensis </it>among small mammals, ticks/fleas and water. The investigations consisted of animal live-trapping, serologic testing, screening by real-time-PCR and cultivation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 386 small mammals were trapped. <it>F. tularensis </it>was detected in five different rodent species with carrier rates of 2.04, 6.94 and 10.87% per trapping area. None of the ticks or fleas (n = 432) tested positive for <it>F. tularensis</it>. We were able to demonstrate <it>F. tularensis-</it>specific DNA in one of 28 water samples taken in one of the outbreak areas.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings of our study stress the need for long-term surveillance of natural foci in order to get a better understanding of the reasons for the temporal and spatial patterns of tularemia in Germany.</p

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Reduced Protein Expression of the Na+/Ca2++K+-Exchanger (SLC24A4) in Apical Plasma Membranes of Maturation Ameloblasts of Fluorotic Mice

Exposure of forming enamel to fluoride results into formation of hypomineralized enamel. We tested whether enamel hypomineralization was caused by lower expression of the NCKX4/SLC24A4 Ca2+-transporter by ameloblasts. Three commercial antibodies against NCKX4 were tested on enamel organs of wild-type and Nckx4-null mice, one of which (a mouse monoclonal) was specific. This antibody gave a prominent staining of the apical plasma membranes of maturation ameloblasts, starting at early maturation. The layer of immuno-positive ameloblasts contained narrow gaps without immunostaining or with reduced staining. In fluorotic mouse incisors, the quantity of NCKX4 protein in ameloblasts as assessed by western blotting was not different from that in non-fluorotic ameloblasts. However, immunostaining of the apical plasma membranes of fluorotic ameloblasts was strongly reduced or absent suggesting that trafficking of NCKX4 to the apical membrane was strongly reduced. Exposure to fluoride may reduce NCKX4-mediated transport of Ca2+ by maturation stage ameloblasts which delays ameloblast modulation and reduces enamel mineralization

Metapopulation structure for perpetuation of Francisella tularensis tularensis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Outbreaks of Type A tularemia due to <it>Francisella tularensis tularensis </it>are typically sporadic and unstable, greatly hindering identification of the determinants of perpetuation and human risk. Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts has experienced an outbreak of Type A tularemia which has persisted for 9 years. This unique situation has allowed us to conduct long-term eco-epidemiologic studies there. Our hypothesis is that the agent of Type A tularemia is perpetuated as a metapopulation, with many small isolated natural foci of transmission. During times of increased transmission, the foci would merge and a larger scale epizootic would occur, with greater likelihood that humans become exposed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We sampled questing dog ticks from two natural foci on the island and tested them for tularemia DNA. We determined whether the force of transmission differed between the two foci. In addition, we examined the population structure of <it>F. tularensis </it>from ticks by variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) analysis, which allowed estimates of diversity, linkage disequilibrium, and eBURST analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of tularemia DNA in ticks from our two field sites was markedly different: one site was stable over the course of the study yielding as many as 5.6% positive ticks. In contrast, infected ticks from the comparison site markedly increased in prevalence, from 0.4% in 2003 to 3.9% in 2006. Using 4 VNTR loci, we documented 75 different haplotypes (diversity = 0.91). eBURST analysis indicates that the stable site was essentially clonal, but the comparison site contained multiple unrelated lineages. The general bacterial population is evolving clonally (multilocus disequilibrium) and the bacteria in the two sites are reproductively isolated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Even within an isolated island, tularemia natural foci that are no more than 15 km apart are uniquely segregated. One of our sites has stable transmission and the other is emergent. The population structure at the stable site is that of a clonal complex of circulating bacteria, whereas the emerging focus is likely to be derived from multiple founders. We conclude that the agent of tularemia may perpetuate in small stable natural foci and that new foci emerge as a result of spillover from such stable sites.</p