Identification of the age-period-cohort model and the extended chain ladder model

In this paper, we consider the identification problem arising in the age-period-cohort models, as well as in the extended chain ladder model. We propose a canonical parametrization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parametrization is exactly identified. It eases interpretation, estimation and forecasting. The canonical parametrization is shown to apply for a class of index sets which have trapezoid shapes, including various Lexis diagrams and the insurance reserving triangles.

Explanation of the computer listings of Faraday factors for INTASAT users

Using a simplified form of the Appleton-Hartree formula for the phase refractive index, a relationship was obtained between the Faraday rotation angle along the angular path and the total electron content along the vertical path, intersecting the angular at the height of maximum electron density. Using the second mean value theorem of integration, the function B cosine theta second chi was removed from under the integral sign and replaced by a 'mean' value. The mean value factors were printed on the computer listing for 39 stations receiving signals from the INTASAT satellite during the specified time period. The data is presented by station and date. Graphs are included to demonstrate the variation of the Faraday factor with local time and season, with magnetic latitude, elevation and azimuth angles. Other topics discussed include a description of the bent ionospheric model, the earth's magnetic field model, and the sample computer listing

Ionospheric range-rate effects in satellite-to-satellite tracking

Investigation of ionospheric range and range-rate corrections in satellite-to-satellite tracking were investigated. Major problems were cited and the magnitude of errors that have to be considered for communications between satellites and related experiments was defined. The results point to the need of using a sophisticated modeling approach incorporating daily solar data, and where possible actual ionospheric measurements as update information, as a simple median model cannot possibly account for the complex interaction of the many variables. The findings provide a basis from which the residual errors can be estimated after ionospheric modeling is incorporated in the reduction. Simulations were performed for satellites at various heights: Apollo, Geos, and Nimbus tracked by ATS-6; and in two different geometric configurations: coplanar and perpendicular orbits

A Multistage Stochastic Programming Approach to the Dynamic and Stochastic VRPTW - Extended version

We consider a dynamic vehicle routing problem with time windows and stochastic customers (DS-VRPTW), such that customers may request for services as vehicles have already started their tours. To solve this problem, the goal is to provide a decision rule for choosing, at each time step, the next action to perform in light of known requests and probabilistic knowledge on requests likelihood. We introduce a new decision rule, called Global Stochastic Assessment (GSA) rule for the DS-VRPTW, and we compare it with existing decision rules, such as MSA. In particular, we show that GSA fully integrates nonanticipativity constraints so that it leads to better decisions in our stochastic context. We describe a new heuristic approach for efficiently approximating our GSA rule. We introduce a new waiting strategy. Experiments on dynamic and stochastic benchmarks, which include instances of different degrees of dynamism, show that not only our approach is competitive with state-of-the-art methods, but also enables to compute meaningful offline solutions to fully dynamic problems where absolutely no a priori customer request is provided.Comment: Extended version of the same-name study submitted for publication in conference CPAIOR201

Do crowding-out effects explain the low effect of a health promotion intervention among young people at a vocational school?

In recent years, school-based interventions have increasingly been used as a strategy to promote good eating habits and physical activity among young people at school. However, little is known about the effect that this kind of public involvement has on the overall behavior of young people. Economists refer to the existence of a crowding-out effect when public sector engagement in influencing behavior is counteracted by behaviors at the individual level. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a health promotion intervention program among young people at a vocational school on the overall behavior of the students and consider whether a crowding-out effect existed when it came to health behavior. This study used data from the Gearing up the Body (GUB) intervention that was carried out at the vocational school of Uddannelsescenter Holstebro, Denmark. The study included 130 students from two vocational programs. Answers were collected from survey questions in three waves. Our results showed that intervening in the school setting had the intended impact on physical activity but an unintended impact on eating behavior. In the GUB study, we found signs of countervailing behaviors in and out of school that need to be further explored

Effect of hook and bait size on catch efficiency in the Persian Gulf recreational fisheries

The effect of hook and bait sizes on the catch efficiency and size composition of Spangled Emperor Lethrinus nebulosus, Orange‐spotted Grouper Epinephelus coioides, and Narrowbarred Mackerel Scomberomorus commerson was investigated in the recreational and semi‐subsistence handline fishery in the Persian Gulf. Based on expectations that increasing hook and bait sizes would decrease the catch efficiency of the smaller individuals while maintaining the catch efficiency of larger fish, we investigated the effect of increasing hook and bait sizes. For all three species, the results indicated slightly lower catch efficiency for the smaller fish when larger hooks were used. Furthermore, the results demonstrated a significant increase in catch efficiency for the larger sizes of Spangled Emperor and Orange‐spotted Grouper when fished with larger hooks, an effect that increased with fish size for both species. Additionally, the overall catch efficiency did not vary significantly when increasing hook and bait sizes for the three species investigated. This study shows that fishing with larger hooks and larger bait would change the exploitation pattern of these species toward higher proportions of larger fish in the catches. Moreover, based on the size distribution of the species on the fishing grounds during the study period, the use of larger hooks and bait would lead to significant increases in the total number of Spangled Emperor caught (41% increase; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17–69%) and the total number of Orange‐spotted Grouper caught (151% increase; 95% CI = 132–336%), respectively. The results indicated a similar effect for Narrowbarred Mackerel; however, the effect was far less profound than for the two other species and was not significant for any size‐classes

Understanding and predicting size selection in diamond-mesh cod ends for danish seining: A study based on sea trials and computer simulations

Danish seining is an important fishing method used to harvest demersal species. Knowledge about the size selectivity of different demersal species with this type of fishing gear is therefore of importance for managing the exploitation of marine resources. However, there are only limited data on size selection in cod ends in this fishery. Sea trials were therefore carried out to collect size selectivity data for Atlantic Cod Gadus morhua, Haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, and Witch Flounder Glyptocephalus cynoglossus for a diamond-mesh cod end. For all three species, the data were best described by a double logistic selection curve, implying that two different size selection processes occur in the cod end. The double selection process could be explained by an additional selection process occurring through slack meshes. The results imply that the escapement of 46% and 34% of the larger Atlantic Cod and Haddock (those above 48 cm), respectively, would be through wide-open or slack meshes. Since these mesh states are only likely to be present in the latest stage of the fishing process (e.g., when the cod end is near the surface), a large fraction of the bigger fish probably escaped near the surface, which might influence their likelihood of survival. Furthermore, based on the models established for explaining the experimental size selection, we were able to predict the effect of changing the mesh size on cod end size selection in the Danish seine fishery

A 4-D dataset for validation of crystal growth in a complex three-phase material, ice cream

Four dimensional (4D, or 3D plus time) X-ray tomographic imaging of phase changes in materials is quickly becoming an accepted tool for quantifying the development of microstructures to both inform and validate models. However, most of the systems studied have been relatively simple binary compositions with only two phases. In this study we present a quantitative dataset of the phase evolution in a complex three-phase material, ice cream. The microstructure of ice cream is an important parameter in terms of sensorial perception, and therefore quantification and modelling of the evolution of the microstructure with time and temperature is key to understanding its fabrication and storage. The microstructure consists of three phases, air cells, ice crystals, and unfrozen matrix. We perform in situ synchrotron X-ray imaging of ice cream samples using in-line phase contrast tomography, housed within a purpose built cold-stage (-40 to +20oC) with finely controlled variation in specimen temperature. The size and distribution of ice crystals and air cells during programmed temperature cycling are determined using 3D quantification. The microstructural evolution of three-phase materials has many other important applications ranging from biological to structural and functional material, hence this dataset can act as a validation case for numerical investigations on faceted and non-faceted crystal growth in a range of materials

When is enough, enough? Quantifying trade-offs between information quality and sampling effort for fishing gear selectivity data

There is general pressure throughout the world’s fisheries for the industry to have greater involvement not only in the development of fishing gears but also in the testing and documentation of their effect. In the European Union, the Common Fisheries Policy of 2013, together with the proposed reform of the technical measures regulation, highlights the need for greater flexibility in fisheries through increased stakeholder involvement. To achieve this flexibility, there is a need for additional fishing gears available to the fishermen. A way to facilitate this is to have the industry take part in the development and testing of fishing gears, as well as collect data on their performance. However, to have a successful industry-collected data programme, fishermen have to be able to collect data on the length of a portion of the catch. In this study, we determine how many individuals need to be measured to correctly evaluate the relative selective performance of a new gear compared to a standard gear. The evaluation was carried out by analysing catch ratio curves, their associated uncertainties, and the trade-offs between uncertainties and sampling effort. Results show that with relatively small sample sizes (500 to 1000 individuals) it is possible to correctly evaluate the performance of a gear for a given species. By having the industry develop and test their own gears, as well as being involved in the collection of data, the number of potential gear solutions available to address the different issues emerging in the fisheries is increased