Beyond ‘significance’:Principles and practice of the analysis of credibility

The inferential inadequacies of statistical significance testing are now widely recognized. There is, however, no consensus on how to move research into a ‘post p < 0.05’ era. We present a potential route forward via the Analysis of Credibility, a novel methodology that allows researchers to go beyond the simplistic dichotomy of significance testing and extract more insight from new findings. Using standard summary statistics, AnCred assesses the credibility of significant and non-significant findings on the basis of their evidential weight, and in the context of existing knowledge. The outcome is expressed in quantitative terms of direct relevance to the substantive research question, providing greater protection against misinterpretation. Worked examples are given to illustrate how AnCred extracts additional insight from the outcome of typical research study designs. Its ability to cast light on the use of p-values, the interpretation of non-significant findings and the so-called ‘replication crisis’ is also discussed

Large N Free Energy of 3d N=4 SCFTs and AdS/CFT

We provide a non-trivial check of the AdS_4/CFT_3 correspondence recently proposed in arXiv:1106.4253 by verifying the GKPW relation in the large N limit. The CFT free energy is obtained from the previous works (arXiv:1105.2551, arXiv:1105.4390) on the S^3 partition function for 3-dimensional N=4 SCFT T[SU(N)]. This is matched with the computation of the type IIB action on the corresponding gravity background. We unexpectedly find that the leading behavior of the free energy at large N is 1/2 N^2 ln N. We also extend our results to richer theories and argue that 1/2 N^2 ln N is the maximal free energy at large N in this class of gauge theories.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figure

Theoretical survey of tidal-charged black holes at the LHC

We analyse a family of brane-world black holes which solve the effective four-dimensional Einstein equations for a wide range of parameters related to the unknown bulk/brane physics. We first constrain the parameters using known experimental bounds and, for the allowed cases, perform a numerical analysis of their time evolution, which includes accretion through the Earth. The study is aimed at predicting the typical behavior one can expect if such black holes were produced at the LHC. Most notably, we find that, under no circumstances, would the black holes reach the (hazardous) regime of Bondi accretion. Nonetheless, the possibility remains that black holes live long enough to escape from the accelerator (and even from the Earth's gravitational field) and result in missing energy from the detectors.Comment: RevTeX4, 12 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables, minor changes to match the accepted version in JHE

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

Congenital Cytomegalovirus Mortality in the United States, 1990–2006

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a member of the herpes family of viruses, which is transmitted by sexual and non-sexual contact. Human CMV causes a wide variety of infection and illness in healthy adults, in those with compromised immune systems (such as AIDS), in those with cardiovascular disease, and in pregnant women who can pass the infection to their unborn child (congenital CMV). Treatment options for congenital CMV are limited and no effective vaccine to protect against CMV currently exists. Previous studies have demonstrated that African Americans and Mexican Americans are at an increased risk for congenital CMV infections. In this study, the authors examined death certificate data of US Residents from 1990–2006 in which congenital CMV was listed as one of the diagnoses at death. The analysis demonstrated that there is a significant burden of congenital CMV deaths in infants (<1 year old) with African Americans and Native Americans overrepresented. This study helps quantify congenital CMV deaths among US residents and adds further support to the importance of funding CMV vaccine research

A composite axion from a supersymmetric product group

A global $U(1)_\text{PQ}$ symmetry is protected from gravitational effects in the s-confining $SU(N)^k$ product group theory with $A+4Q +N\overline{Q}$ matter. If the $SU(4)$ family symmetry is gauged and an appropriate tree-level superpotential is added, then the dynamically generated superpotential spontaneously breaks $SU(4)\times U(1)_\text{PQ} \rightarrow SU(3)_c$ and produces a QCD axion. Small values of the $CP$-violating $\theta$ parameter are then possible without any fine-tuning, as long as the product group is suitably large. By introducing a second copy of the s-confining $SU(N)$ product group also coupled to the gauged $SU(4)$, we find that values as small as $N=7$ are consistent with $\bar\theta<10^{-10}$, even under the pessimistic assumption that the dominant contribution to the axion quality is at tree level.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables, 2 appendice

All-sky search for short gravitational-wave bursts in the second Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo run

We present the results of a search for short-duration gravitational-wave transients in the data from the second observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. We search for gravitational-wave transients with a duration of milliseconds to approximately one second in the 32-4096 Hz frequency band with minimal assumptions about the signal properties, thus targeting a wide variety of sources. We also perform a matched-filter search for gravitational-wave transients from cosmic string cusps for which the waveform is well modeled. The unmodeled search detected gravitational waves from several binary black hole mergers which have been identified by previous analyses. No other significant events have been found by either the unmodeled search or the cosmic string search. We thus present the search sensitivities for a variety of signal waveforms and report upper limits on the source rate density as a function of the characteristic frequency of the signal. These upper limits are a factor of 3 lower than the first observing run, with a 50% detection probability for gravitational-wave emissions with energies of ∼10-9 Mc2 at 153 Hz. For the search dedicated to cosmic string cusps we consider several loop distribution models, and present updated constraints from the same search done in the first observing run