Fitting the Phenomenological MSSM

We perform a global Bayesian fit of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM) to current indirect collider and dark matter data. The pMSSM contains the most relevant 25 weak-scale MSSM parameters, which are simultaneously fit using `nested sampling' Monte Carlo techniques in more than 15 years of CPU time. We calculate the Bayesian evidence for the pMSSM and constrain its parameters and observables in the context of two widely different, but reasonable, priors to determine which inferences are robust. We make inferences about sparticle masses, the sign of the $\mu$ parameter, the amount of fine tuning, dark matter properties and the prospects for direct dark matter detection without assuming a restrictive high-scale supersymmetry breaking model. We find the inferred lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass as an example of an approximately prior independent observable. This analysis constitutes the first statistically convergent pMSSM global fit to all current data.Comment: Added references, paragraph on fine-tunin

Interactional positioning and narrative self-construction in the first session of psychodynamic-interpersonal psychotherapy

The purpose of this study is to identify possible session one indicators of end of treatment psychotherapy outcome using the framework of three types of interactional positioning; client’s self-positioning, client’s positioning between narrated self and different partners, and the positioning between client and therapist. Three successful cases of 8-session psychodynamic-interpersonal (PI) therapy were selected on the basis of client Beck Depression Inventory scores. One unsuccessful case was also selected against which identified patterns could be tested. The successful clients were more descriptive about their problems and demonstrated active rapport-building, while the therapist used positionings expressed by the client in order to explore the positionings developed between them during therapy. The unsuccessful case was characterized by lack of positive self-comment, minimization of agentic self-capacity, and empathy-disrupting narrative confusions. We conclude that the theory of interactional positioning has been useful in identifying patterns worth exploring as early indicators of success in PI therapy

Fishery dynamics of the California market squid (Loligo opalescens), as measured by satellite remote sensing

Novel data on the spatial and temporal distribution of fishing effort and population abundance are presented for the market squid fishery (Loligo opalescens) in the Southern California Bight, 1992−2000. Fishing effort was measured by the detection of boat lights by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS). Visual confirmation of fishing vessels by nocturnal aerial surveys indicated that lights detected by satellites are reliable indicators of fishing effort. Overall, fishing activity was concentrated off the following Channel Islands: Santa Rosa, Santa Cruz, Anacapa, and Santa Catalina. Fishing activity occurred at depths of 100 m or less. Landings, effort, and squid abundance (measured as landings per unit of effort, LPUE) markedly declined during the 1997−98 El Niño; landings and LPUE increased afterwards. Within a fishing season, the location of fishing activity shifted from the northern shores of Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Islands in October, the typical starting date for squid fishing in the Bight, to the southern shores by March, the typical end of the squid season. Light detection by satellites offers a source of fine-scale spatial and temporal data on fishing effort for the market squid fishery off California, and these data can be integrated with environmental data and fishing logbook data in the development of a management plan

The role of the locus coeruleus in mediating the attentional blink: A neurocomputational theory.

The attentional blink refers to the transient impairment in perceiving the 2nd of 2 targets presented in close temporal proximity. In this article, the authors propose a neurobiological mechanism for this effect. The authors extend a recently developed computational model of the potentiating influence of the locus coeruleus-norepinephrine system on information processing and hypothesize that a refractoriness in the function of this system may account for the attentional blink. The model accurately simulates the time course of the attentional blink, including Lag 1 sparing. The theory also offers an account of the close relationship of the attentional blink to the electrophysiological P3 component. The authors report results from two behavioral experiments that support a critical prediction of their theory regarding the time course of Lag 1 sparing. Finally, the relationship between the authors' neurocomputational theory and existing cognitive theories of the attentional blink is discussed. Copyright 2005 by the American Psychological Association

Relationship between haemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titres and clinical protection against influenza: development and application of a bayesian random-effects model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antibodies directed against haemagglutinin, measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay are essential to protective immunity against influenza infection. An HI titre of 1:40 is generally accepted to correspond to a 50% reduction in the risk of contracting influenza in a susceptible population, but limited attempts have been made to further quantify the association between HI titre and protective efficacy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a model, using a meta-analytical approach, that estimates the level of clinical protection against influenza at any HI titre level. Source data were derived from a systematic literature review that identified 15 studies, representing a total of 5899 adult subjects and 1304 influenza cases with interval-censored information on HI titre. The parameters of the relationship between HI titre and clinical protection were estimated using Bayesian inference with a consideration of random effects and censorship in the available information.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A significant and positive relationship between HI titre and clinical protection against influenza was observed in all tested models. This relationship was found to be similar irrespective of the type of viral strain (A or B) and the vaccination status of the individuals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although limitations in the data used should not be overlooked, the relationship derived in this analysis provides a means to predict the efficacy of inactivated influenza vaccines when only immunogenicity data are available. This relationship can also be useful for comparing the efficacy of different influenza vaccines based on their immunological profile.</p

Risk Factors and Immunity in a Nationally Representative Population following the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

Understanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling.We collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ≥1∶40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6–29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5–19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3–55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2–20.8). Older adults aged ≥60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7–30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3–30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1–64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6–36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8–29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms.Based on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population

Prevalence of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Antibodies, Tampa Bay Florida — November–December, 2009

BACKGROUND: In 2009, a novel influenza virus (2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1)) caused significant disease in the United States. Most states, including Florida, experienced a large fall wave of disease from September through November, after which disease activity decreased substantially. We determined the prevalence of antibodies due to the pH1N1 virus in Florida after influenza activity had peaked and estimated the proportion of the population infected with pH1N1 virus during the pandemic. METHODS: During November-December 2009, we collected leftover serum from a blood bank, a pediatric children's hospital and a pediatric outpatient clinic in Tampa Bay Florida. Serum was tested for pH1N1 virus antibodies using the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay. HI titers ≥40 were considered seropositive. We adjusted seroprevalence results to account for previously established HI assay specificity and sensitivity and employed a simple statistical model to estimate the proportion of seropositivity due to pH1N1 virus infection and vaccination. RESULTS: During the study time period, the overall seroprevalence in Tampa Bay, Florida was 25%, increasing to 30% after adjusting for HI assay sensitivity and specificity. We estimated that 5.9% of the population had vaccine-induced seropositivity while 25% had seropositivity secondary to pH1N1 virus infection. The highest cumulative incidence of pH1N1 virus infection was among children aged 5-17 years (53%) and young adults aged 18-24 years (47%), while adults aged ≥50 years had the lowest cumulative incidence (11-13%) of pH1N1 virus infection. CONCLUSIONS: After the peak of the fall wave of the pandemic, an estimated one quarter of the Tampa Bay population had been infected with the pH1N1 virus. Consistent with epidemiologic trends observed during the pandemic, the highest burdens of disease were among school-aged children and young adults

Tracking seasonal changes in North Sea zooplankton trophic dynamics using stable isotopes

Trophodynamics of meso-zooplankton in the North Sea (NS) were assessed at a site in the southern NS, and at a shallow and a deep site in the central NS. Offshore and neritic species from different ecological niches, including Calanus spp., Temora spp. and Sagitta spp., were collected during seven cruises over 14 months from 2007 to 2008. Bulk stable isotope (SI) analysis, phospholipid-derived fatty acid (PLFA) compositions, and δ 13CPLFA data of meso-zooplankton and particulate organic matter (POM) were used to describe changes in zooplankton relative trophic positions (RTPs) and trophodynamics. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that the RTPs of zooplankton in the North Sea vary spatially and seasonally, in response to hydrographic variability, with the microbial food web playing an important role at times. Zooplankton RTPs tended to be higher during winter and lower during the phytoplankton bloom in spring. RTPs were highest for predators such as Sagitta sp. and Calanus helgolandicus and lowest for small copepods such as Pseudocalanus elongatus and zoea larvae (Brachyura). δ 15NPOM-based RTPs were only moderate surrogates for animals’ ecological niches, because of the plasticity in source materials from the herbivorous and the microbial loop food web. Common (16:0) and essential (eicosapentaenoic acid, EPA and docosahexaenoic acid, DHA) structural lipids showed relatively constant abundances. This could be explained by incorporation of PLFAs with δ 13C signatures which followed seasonal changes in bulk δ 13CPOM and PLFA δ 13CPOM signatures. This study highlighted the complementarity of three biogeochemical approaches for trophodynamic studies and substantiated conceptual views of size-based food web analysis, in which small individuals of large species may be functionally equivalent to large individuals of small species. Seasonal and spatial variability was also important in altering the relative importance of the herbivorous and microbial food webs

Genetic Editing of HBV DNA by Monodomain Human APOBEC3 Cytidine Deaminases and the Recombinant Nature of APOBEC3G

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA is vulnerable to editing by human cytidine deaminases of the APOBEC3 (A3A-H) family albeit to much lower levels than HIV cDNA. We have analyzed and compared HBV editing by all seven enzymes in a quail cell line that does not produce any endogenous DNA cytidine deaminase activity. Using 3DPCR it was possible to show that all but A3DE were able to deaminate HBV DNA at levels from 10−2 to 10−5 in vitro, with A3A proving to be the most efficient editor. The amino terminal domain of A3G alone was completely devoid of deaminase activity to within the sensitivity of 3DPCR (∼10−4 to 10−5). Detailed analysis of the dinucleotide editing context showed that only A3G and A3H have strong preferences, notably CpC and TpC. A phylogenic analysis of A3 exons revealed that A3G is in fact a chimera with the first two exons being derived from the A3F gene. This might allow co-expression of the two genes that are able to restrict HIV-1Δvif efficiently

Environmental Factors Affecting Large-Bodied Coral Reef Fish Assemblages in the Mariana Archipelago

Large-bodied reef fishes represent an economically and ecologically important segment of the coral reef fish assemblage. Many of these individuals supply the bulk of the reproductive output for their population and have a disproportionate effect on their environment (e.g. as apex predators or bioeroding herbivores). Large-bodied reef fishes also tend to be at greatest risk of overfishing, and their loss can result in a myriad of either cascading (direct) or indirect trophic and other effects. While many studies have investigated habitat characteristics affecting populations of small-bodied reef fishes, few have explored the relationship between large-bodied species and their environment. Here, we describe the distribution of the large-bodied reef fishes in the Mariana Archipelago with an emphasis on the environmental factors associated with their distribution. Of the factors considered in this study, a negative association with human population density showed the highest relative influence on the distribution of large-bodied reef fishes; however, depth, water temperature, and distance to deep water also were important. These findings provide new information on the ecology of large-bodied reef fishes can inform discussions concerning essential fish habitat and ecosystem-based management for these species and highlight important knowledge gaps worthy of additional research