Approach to Analysis of Self-Selected Interval Data

We analyze an approach to quantitative information elicitation in surveys that includes many currently popular variants as special cases. Rather than asking the individual to state a point estimate or select between given brackets, the individual can self-select any interval of choice. We propose a new estimator for such interval censored data. It can be viewed as an extension of Turnbull's estimator (Turnbull(1976)) for interval censored data. A detailed empirical example is provided, using a survey on the valuation of a public good. We estimate survival functions based on a Weibull and a mixed Weibull/exponential distribution and prove that a consistent maximum likelihood estimator exists and that its accuracy can be consistently estimated by re-sampling methods in these two families of distributions.Interval data; Maximum Likelihood; Turnbull estimator; willingness-to-pay; quantitative elicitation

A note on how to undertake a cost-benefit analysis in monetary and environmental units

In this note we discuss two alternative ways of undertaking a social cost-benefit analysis. One approach is the conventional one where benefits and costs are expressed in monetary units. The other approach uses an environmental asset as the payment vehicle. The properties of the two approaches are discussed and the measurement problems are stressed.Cost-benefit analysis; externalities; choice of numeraire; habitat equivalence analysis; resource equivalency methods

Omreglering så att (nästan) alla blir vinnare

I denna artikel diskuterar vi några av de konflikter som råder kring vattenkraften. En omreglering sådan att i princip alla vinner presenteras. Förslaget tillämpas på Ljusnan där två dammar vid utloppet föreslås bli utrivna och kraftverksägaren kompenseras med en utbyggnad 15 mil uppströms. Lax och andra arter kan då vandra 15 mil uppströms för lek. Vidare förbättras rekreationsmöjligheterna för de kringboende

Paying a Premium for "Green Steel": Paying for an Illusion?

The iron and steel industry generates around 10 % of global greenhouse gas emissions. The bulk of the emissions originates from the iron ore reduction. In this reduction, coal is used as a reagent. Steelmakers could switch to hydrogen-based direct reduction using hydrogen instead of coal as a reagent to reduce iron ore to pig iron. This would eliminate the CO2 emissions from the equivalent process in a traditional blast furnace. However, the process requires massive amounts of electricity. This paper looks at the economics of such a switch to "green steel." We assess a marginal increase in the production of a hypothetical green steelmaker. We also undertake an investment appraisal of a green plant, based on an ongoing installation in Northern Sweden, but also briefly consider a possible/planned investment in the US. This appraisal is complemented by computing the survival function for the net present value in a systematic sensitivity analysis. It seems highly unlikely that a green steel plant can be socially profitable. If the green plant displaces conventional steel produced within the European Union's cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases, total emissions remain more or less unaffected; permits and emissions are simply reshuffled. Hence, if end-users of green steel pay a premium, they might pay for an illusion

On the social opportunity cost of unemployment

The handling of unemployment is a central issue in cost-benefit analysis. Typically, the shadow price of employing an unemployed is derived by considering a marginal change in the employment constraint faced by an unemployed or rather an underemployed. In contrast, in this paper, we consider the discrete shift from unemployment to (full) employment. The result provides guidance how to estimate the social cost of recruiting otherwise unemployed to a project. It is shown that the social cost is overestimated by using the private reservation wage. The common practice of adding different cost items is shown to be flawed

Quantile regression with interval-censored data in questionnaire-based studies

Interval-censored data can arise in questionnaire-based studies when the respondent gives an answer in the form of an interval without having pre-specified ranges. Such data are called self-selected interval data. In this case, the assumption of independent censoring is not fulfilled, and therefore the ordinary methods for interval-censored data are not suitable. This paper explores a quantile regression model for self-selected interval data and suggests an estimator based on estimating equations. The consistency of the estimator is shown. Bootstrap procedures for constructing confidence intervals are considered. A simulation study indicates satisfactory performance of the proposed methods. An application to data concerning price estimates is presented

On Misrepresentation of Altruistic Preferences in Discrete-Choice Experiments

The purpose of this note is to address a problem faced in using stated preference methods to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for a project. The considered problem occurs under pure altruism. Even though an agent is equipped with well-behaved preferences, a conventional closed-ended (binary) valuation question may induce her to overrate or underrate her true WTP. On the other hand, an open-ended valuation format seemingly provides a correct answer, but such a format fails to be incentive compatible

Valuing environmental benefits using the contingent valuation method : an econometric analysis

The purpose of this study is to investigate methods for assessing the value people place on preserving our natural environments and resources. It focuses on the contingent valuation method, which is a method for directly asking people about their preferences. In particular, the study focuses on the use of discrete response data in contingent valuation experiments.The first part of the study explores the economic theory of the total value of a natural resource, where the principal components of total value are analyzed; use values and non-use values. Our application is a study of the value Swedes' attach to the preservation of eleven forest areas that contain high recreational values and contain unique environmental qualities. Six forests were selected on the basis of an official investigation which includes virgin forests and other areas with unique environmental qualities. In addition, five virgin forests were selected.Two types of valuation questions are analyzed, the continuous and the discrete. The first type of question asks directly about willingness to pay, while the second type suggests a price that the respondent may reject or accept. The results of the continuous question suggest an average willingness to pay of about 1,000 SEK per household for preservation of the areas. Further analysis of the data suggests that this value depends on severi characteristics of the respondent: such as the respondent's income and whether or not the respondent is an altruist.Two econometric approaches are used to analyze the discrete responses; a flexible parametric approach and a non-parametric approach. In addition, a Bayesian approach is described. It is shown that the results of a contingent valuation experiment may depend to some extent on the choice of the probability model. A re-sampling approach and a Monte-Carlo approach is used to shed light on the design of a contingent valuation experiment with discrete responses. The econometric analysis ends with an analysis of the often observed disparity between discrete and continuous valuation questions.A cost-benefit analysis is performed in the final chapter. The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate how the contingent valuation approach may be combined with opportunity cost data to improve the decision-basis in the environmental policy domain. This analysis does not give strong support for a cutting alternative. Finally, the results of this investigation are compared with evidence from other studies.The main conclusion of this study is that assessment of peoples' sentiments towards changes of our natural environments and resources can be a useful supplement to decisions about the proper husbandry of our natural environments and resources. It also highlights the importance of careful statistical analysis of data gained from contingent valuation experiments.digitalisering@um