A spatio-temporal structure-based approach to drought characterisation

Drought characterisation is an intrinsically spatio-temporal problem. A limitation of previous approaches to characterisation is that they discard much of the spatio-temporal information by reducing events to a lower-order subspace. To address this, an explicit 3-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) structure-based method is described in which drought events are defined by a spatially and temporarily coherent set of points displaying standardised precipitation below a given threshold. Geometric methods can then be used to measure similarity between individual drought structures. Groupings of these similarities provide an alternative to traditional methods for extracting recurrent space-time signals from geophysical data. The explicit consideration of structure encourages the construction of summary statistics which relate to the event geometry. Example measures considered are the event volume, centroid, and aspect ratio. The utility of a 3-dimensional approach is demonstrated by application to the analysis of European droughts (15 °W to 35°E, and 35 °N to 70°N) for the period 1901–2006. Large-scale structure is found to be abundant with 75 events identified lasting for more than 3 months and spanning at least 0.5 × 106 km2. Near-complete dissimilarity is seen between the individual drought structures, and little or no regularity is found in the time evolution of even the most spatially similar drought events. The spatial distribution of the event centroids and the time evolution of the geographic cross-sectional areas strongly suggest that large area, sustained droughts result from the combination of multiple small area (∼106 km2) short duration (∼3 months) events. The small events are not found to occur independently in space. This leads to the hypothesis that local water feedbacks play an important role in the aggregation process

Developing H++ climate change scenarios for heat waves, droughts, floods, windstorms and cold snaps

This report describes the results of a project to investigate the development of plausible high-end climate change scenarios. It covers the following climate hazards: heat waves, cold snaps, low and high rainfall, droughts, floods and windstorms. The scope of the project does not extend into defining the consequences of these hazards such as mortality, property damage or impacts on the natural environment. The scenarios created for this report are referred to as H++ scenarios, and are typically more extreme climate change scenarios on the margins or outside of the 10th to 90th percentile range presented in the 2009 UK climate change projections (also known as ‘UKCP09’)

Zigzag HgTe nanowires modify the electron–phonon interaction in chirality-refined single-walled carbon nanotubes

Atomically thin nanowires (NWs) can be synthesized inside single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and feature unique crystal structures. Here we show that HgTe nanowires formed inside small-diameter (<1 nm) SWCNTs can advantageously alter the optical and electronic properties of the SWCNTs. Metallic purification of the filled SWCNTs was achieved by a gel column chromatography method, leading to an efficient extraction of the semiconducting and metallic portions with known chiralities. Electron microscopic imaging revealed that zigzag HgTe chains were the dominant NW geometry in both the semiconducting and metallic species. Equilibrium-state and ultrafast spectroscopy demonstrated that the coupled electron–phonon system was modified by the encapsulated HgTe NWs, in a way that varied with the chirality. For semiconducting SWCNTs with HgTe NWs, Auger relaxation processes were suppressed, leading to enhanced photoluminescence emission. In contrast, HgTe NWs enhanced the Auger relaxation rate of metallic SWCNTs and created faster phonon relaxation, providing experimental evidence that encapsulated atomic chains can suppress hot carrier effects and therefore boost electronic transport

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact

First-passage times in complex scale-invariant media

How long does it take a random walker to reach a given target point? This quantity, known as a first passage time (FPT), has led to a growing number of theoretical investigations over the last decade1. The importance of FPTs originates from the crucial role played by first encounter properties in various real situations, including transport in disordered media, neuron firing dynamics, spreading of diseases or target search processes. Most methods to determine the FPT properties in confining domains have been limited to effective 1D geometries, or for space dimensions larger than one only to homogeneous media1. Here we propose a general theory which allows one to accurately evaluate the mean FPT (MFPT) in complex media. Remarkably, this analytical approach provides a universal scaling dependence of the MFPT on both the volume of the confining domain and the source-target distance. This analysis is applicable to a broad range of stochastic processes characterized by length scale invariant properties. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations for several emblematic models of disordered media, fractals, anomalous diffusion and scale free networks.Comment: Submitted version. Supplementary Informations available on Nature websit

Transition pathways for a UK low-carbon electricity system: comparing scenarios and technology implications

The United Kingdom (UK) has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a goal of reducing its ‘greenhouse’ gas emissions by 80% by 2050. A set of three low-carbon ‘Transition Pathways’ were developed to examine the influence of different governance arrangements on achieving a low-carbon future. They focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport. These transition pathways were developed by starting from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. Here the quantified pathways are compared and contrasted with the main scenarios developed in the UK Government’s 2011 Carbon Plan. This can aid an informed debate on the technical feasibility and social acceptability of realising transition pathways for decarbonising the UK energy sector by 2050. The contribution of these pathways to meeting Britain’s energy and carbon reduction goals are therefore evaluated on a ‘whole systems’ basis, including the implications of ‘upstream emissions’ arising from the ‘fuel supply chain’ ahead of power generators themselves

Oxacillin sensitization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius by antisense peptide nucleic acids in vitro

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance genes can be targeted by antisense agents, which can reduce their expression and thus restore cellular susceptibility to existing antibiotics. Antisense inhibitors can be gene and pathogen specific, or designed to inhibit a group of bacteria having conserved sequences within resistance genes. Here, we aimed to develop antisense peptide nucleic acids (PNAs) that could be used to effectively restore susceptibility to β-lactams in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP). RESULTS: Antisense PNAs specific for conserved regions of the mobilisable gene mecA, and the growth essential gene, ftsZ, were designed. Clinical MRSA and MRSP strains of high oxacillin resistance were treated with PNAs and assayed for reduction in colony forming units on oxacillin plates, reduction in target gene mRNA levels, and cell size. Anti-mecA PNA at 7.5 and 2.5 μM reduced mecA mRNA in MRSA and MRSP (p < 0.05). At these PNA concentrations, 66 % of MRSA and 92 % of MRSP cells were killed by oxacillin (p < 0.01). Anti-ftsZ PNA at 7.5 and 2.5 μM reduced ftsZ mRNA in MRSA and MRSP, respectively (p ≤ 0.05). At these PNA concentrations, 86 % of MRSA cells and 95 % of MRSP cells were killed by oxacillin (p < 0.05). Anti-ftsZ PNAs resulted in swelling of bacterial cells. Scrambled PNA controls did not affect MRSA but sensitized MRSP moderately to oxacillin without affecting mRNA levels. CONCLUSIONS: The antisense PNAs effects observed provide in vitro proof of concept that this approach can be used to reverse β-lactam resistance in staphylococci. Further studies are warranted as clinical treatment alternatives are needed.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio