Guillain-Barré Syndrome, Influenza Vaccination, and Antecedent Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Infections: A Case-Centered Analysis in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, 2009–2011

Background: Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can be triggered by gastrointestinal or respiratory infections, including influenza. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, monovalent inactivated influenza vaccine (MIV) availability coincided with high rates of wildtype influenza infections. Several prior studies suggested an elevated GBS risk following MIV, but adjustment for antecedent infection was limited. Methods: We identified patients enrolled in health plans participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink and diagnosed with GBS from July 2009 through June 2011. Medical records of GBS cases with 2009–10 MIV, 2010–11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), and/or a medically-attended respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the 1 through 141 days prior to GBS diagnosis were reviewed and classified according to Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Using a case-centered design, logistic regression models adjusted for patient-level time-varying sources of confounding, including seasonal vaccinations and infections in GBS cases and population-level controls. Results: Eighteen confirmed GBS cases received vaccination in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 1.27 million 2009–10 MIV recipients and 2.80 million 2010–11 TIV recipients. Forty-four confirmed GBS cases had infection in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 3.77 million patients diagnosed with medically-attended infection. The observed-versus-expected odds that 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV was received in the 6 weeks preceding GBS onset was odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59–3.99; risk difference = 0.93 per million doses, 95% CI, −0.71–5.16. The association between GBS and medically-attended infection was: odds ratio = 7.73, 95% CI, 3.60–16.61; risk difference = 11.62 per million infected patients, 95% CI, 4.49–26.94. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative infection definitions and risk intervals for prior vaccination shorter than 6 weeks. Conclusions: After adjusting for antecedent infections, we found no evidence for an elevated GBS risk following 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV influenza vaccines. However, the association between GBS and antecedent infection was strongly elevated

International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview

This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (2007) and Barnett and Wu (2005)

Animal-related factors associated with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in children younger than five years in western Kenya: A matched case-control study

Background Diarrheal disease remains among the leading causes of global mortality in children younger than 5 years. Exposure to domestic animals may be a risk factor for diarrheal disease. The objectives of this study were to identify animal-related exposures associated with cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children in rural western Kenya, and to identify the major zoonotic enteric pathogens present in domestic animals residing in the homesteads of case and control children. Methodology/Principal findings We characterized animal-related exposures in a subset of case and control children (n = 73 pairs matched on age, sex and location) with reported animal presence at home enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study in western Kenya, and analysed these for an association with MSD. We identified potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens in pooled fecal specimens collected from domestic animals resident at children’s homesteads. Variables that were associated with decreased risk of MSD were washing hands after animal contact (matched odds ratio [MOR] = 0.2; 95% CI 0.08–0.7), and presence of adult sheep that were not confined in a pen overnight (MOR = 0.1; 0.02–0.5). Variables that were associated with increased risk of MSD were increasing number of sheep owned (MOR = 1.2; 1.0–1.5), frequent observation of fresh rodent excreta (feces/urine) outside the house (MOR = 7.5; 1.5–37.2), and participation of the child in providing water to chickens (MOR = 3.8; 1.2–12.2). Of 691 pooled specimens collected from 2,174 domestic animals, 159 pools (23%) tested positive for one or more potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni, C. coli, non-typhoidal Salmonella, diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, or rotavirus). We did not find any association between the presence of particular pathogens in household animals, and MSD in children. Conclusions and significance Public health agencies should continue to promote frequent hand washing, including after animal contact, to reduce the risk of MSD. Future studies should address specific causal relations of MSD with sheep and chicken husbandry practices, and with the presence of rodents

Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity

In this study, Bayesian inference is developed for structural vector autoregressive models in which the structural parameters are identified via Markov-switching heteroskedasticity. In such a model, restrictions that are just-identifying in the homoskedastic case, become over-identifying and can be tested. A set of parametric restrictions is derived under which the structural matrix is globally or partially identified and a Savage-Dickey density ratio is used to assess the validity of the identification conditions. The latter is facilitated by analytical derivations that make the computations fast and numerical standard errors small. As an empirical example, monetary models are compared using heteroskedasticity as an additional device for identification. The empirical results support models with money in the interest rate reaction function.Comment: Keywords: Identification Through Heteroskedasticity, Bayesian Hypotheses Assessment, Markov-switching Models, Mixture Models, Regime Chang

Association of Escherichia coli O157:H7 tir polymorphisms with human infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emerging molecular, animal model and epidemiologic evidence suggests that Shiga-toxigenic <it>Escherichia coli </it>O157:H7 (STEC O157) isolates vary in their capacity to cause human infection and disease. The translocated intimin receptor (<it>tir</it>) and intimin (<it>eae</it>) are virulence factors and bacterial receptor-ligand proteins responsible for tight STEC O157 adherence to intestinal epithelial cells. They represent logical genomic targets to investigate the role of sequence variation in STEC O157 pathogenesis and molecular epidemiology. The purposes of this study were (1) to identify <it>tir </it>and <it>eae </it>polymorphisms in diverse STEC O157 isolates derived from clinically ill humans and healthy cattle (the dominant zoonotic reservoir) and (2) to test any observed <it>tir </it>and <it>eae </it>polymorphisms for association with human (vs bovine) isolate source.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five polymorphisms were identified in a 1,627-bp segment of <it>tir</it>. Alleles of two <it>tir </it>polymorphisms, <it>tir </it>255 T>A and repeat region 1-repeat unit 3 (RR1-RU3, presence or absence) had dissimilar distributions among human and bovine isolates. More than 99% of 108 human isolates possessed the <it>tir </it>255 T>A T allele and lacked RR1-RU3. In contrast, the <it>tir </it>255 T>A T allele and RR1-RU3 absence were found in 55% and 57%, respectively, of 77 bovine isolates. Both polymorphisms associated strongly with isolate source (p < 0.0001), but not by pulsed field gel electrophoresis type or by <it>stx</it>1 and <it>stx</it>2 status (as determined by PCR). Two <it>eae </it>polymorphisms were identified in a 2,755-bp segment of 44 human and bovine isolates; 42 isolates had identical <it>eae </it>sequences. The <it>eae </it>polymorphisms did not associate with isolate source.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Polymorphisms in <it>tir </it>but not <it>eae </it>predict the propensity of STEC O157 isolates to cause human clinical disease. The over-representation of the <it>tir </it>255 T>A T allele in human-derived isolates vs the <it>tir </it>255 T>A A allele suggests that these isolates have a higher propensity to cause disease. The high frequency of bovine isolates with the A allele suggests a possible bovine ecological niche for this STEC O157 subset.</p

Investigation of an Escherichia coli O145 outbreak in a child day-care centre - extensive sampling and characterization of eae- and stx1-positive E. coli yields epidemiological and socioeconomic insight

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>On October 29^th2009 the health authorities in the city of Trondheim, Norway were alerted about a case of Shiga toxin-positive <it>E. coli </it>(STEC) O145 in a child with bloody diarrhoea attending a day-care centre. Symptomatic children in this day-care centre were sampled, thereby identifying three more cases. This initiated an outbreak investigation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case was defined as a child attending the day-care centre, in whom <it>eae- </it>and <it>stx</it>₁- but not <it>stx</it>₂-positive <it>E. coli </it>O145:H28 was diagnosed from a faecal sample, with multilocus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) profile identical to the index isolate. All 61 children, a staff of 14 in the day-care centre, and 74 close contacts submitted faecal samples. Staff and parents were interviewed about cases' exposure to foods and animals. Faecal samples from 31 ewes from a sheep herd to which the children were exposed were analyzed for <it>E. coli </it>O145.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixteen cases were identified, from which nine presented diarrhoea but not haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). The attack rate was 0.26, and varied between age groups (0.13-0.40) and between the three day-care centre departments (0.20-0.50), and was significantly higher amongst the youngest children. Median duration of shedding was 20 days (0-71 days). Children were excluded from the day-care centre during shedding, requiring parents to take compassionate leave, estimated to be a minimum total of 406 days for all cases. Atypical enteropathogenic <it>E. coli </it>(aEPEC) were detected among 14 children other than cases. These isolates were genotypically different from the outbreak strain. Children in the day-care centre were exposed to faecal pollution from a sheep herd, but <it>E. coli </it>O145 was not detected in the sheep.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We report an outbreak of <it>stx</it>₁- and <it>eae-</it>positive STEC O145:H28 infection with mild symptoms among children in a day-care centre. Extensive sampling showed occurrence of the outbreak strain as well as other STEC and aEPEC strains in the outbreak population. MLVA-typing of the STEC-isolates strongly indicates a common source of infection. The study describes epidemiological aspects and socioeconomic consequences of a non-O157 STEC outbreak, which are less commonly reported than O157 outbreaks.</p

Childhood intussusception in Uzbekistan: Analysis of retrospective surveillance data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of baseline incidence of childhood intussusception could help safety monitoring after the introduction of rotavirus vaccines. We studied the incidence of intussusception in Uzbekistan, a GAVI-fund eligible state in Central Asia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We retrospectively reviewed intussusception cases in children <2 years of age treated during 2004-2008 at 15 hospitals in the Bukhara region of Uzbekistan. Demographic and clinical data as well as information on diagnostic and treatment practices were obtained from hospital records. We categorized cases using the Brighton collaboration clinical case definition and calculated the national incidence rate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over a 5-year study period, 67 confirmed cases were identified, of which 67% were boys. The median age was 12 months, and no seasonal trend in the distribution of cases was observed. The diagnostic methods used included abdominal radiography (87%) and ultrasonography (57%). Intussusception reduction by air enema was successful in 33 (49%) patients and 34 (50%) cases underwent surgery. A total of 4 deaths occurred, including 3 deaths in infants aged 0-6 months. The median length of hospital stay was 7.3 (range 0-37) days. The incidence of intussusception is estimated at 23 (95% CI 13.6-32.4) cases per 100,000 child-years, corresponding to approximately 237 cases annually.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first study to estimate the incidence of childhood intussusception prior to the introduction of the rotavirus vaccination in Uzbekistan. A prospective surveillance system using a standardized case definition is needed in order to better examine the occurrence of intussusception in developing countries.</p

Health Services Utilization, Work Absenteeism and Costs of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Spain: A Multicenter-Longitudinal Study

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate healthcare resource utilization, work absenteeism and cost per patient with pandemic influenza (H1N1)2009, from its beginning to March 2010, in Spain. We also estimated the economic impact on healthcare services. Methods and Findings: Longitudinal, descriptive,multicenter study of in- and outpatients with confirmed diagnosis of influenza A (H1N1) in Spain. Temporal distribution of cases was comparable to that in Spain. Information of healthcare and social resources used from one week before admission (inpatient) or index-medical visit (outpatient) until recovery was gathered. Unit cost was imputed to utilization frequency for the monetary valuation of use. Mean cost per patient was calculated. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, and variables correlated with cost per patient were identified. Economic impact on the healthcare system was estimated using healthcare costs per patient and both, the reported number of confirmed and clinical cases in Spain. 172 inpatients and 224 outpatients were included. Less than 10% were over 65 years old and more than 50% had previous comorbidities. 12.8% of inpatients were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. Mean length of hospital stay of patients not requiring critical care was 5 days (SD =4.4). All working-inpatients and 91.7% working-outpatients went on sick leave. On average, work absenteeism was 30.5 days (SD=20.7) for the first ones and 9 days (SD= 6.3) for the latest. Caregivers of 21.7% of inpatients and 8.5% of outpatients also had work absenteeism during 10.7 and 4.1 days on average respectively. Mean cost was J6,236/inpatient (CI95%=1,384-14,623) and J940/outpatient (CI95% =66-3,064). The healthcare economic burden of patients with confirmed influenza was J144,773,577 (IC95% 13,753,043-383,467,535). More than 86% of expenditures were a result of outpatients" utilization. Conclusion: Cost per H1N1-patient did not defer much from seasonal influenza estimates. Hospitalizations and work absenteeism represented the highest cost per patient