Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older. Findings: Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change −0·2% [95% UI −1·5 to 1·0]; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people [95% IU 8·51 to 10·8], 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people [86·0 to 107·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by −15·4% [–16·8 to −14·3], while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% [–0·8 to 1·6]). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% [8·9 to 12·4]) and MSVI (31·5% [30·0 to 33·1]). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases [9% IU 12·7–18·0]), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases [2·8–4·4]), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases [1·8–2·8]), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases [1·3–2·4]), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases [0·59–1·23]). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases [74·2–101·0]) and cataract (78·8 million cases [67·2–91·4]). Interpretation: Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached. Funding: Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Théa, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg

Addressing the Impact of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries (NCDIs) in Ethiopia: Findings and Recommendations from the Ethiopia NCDI Commission

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases and injuries (NCDIs) are the leading causes of premature mortality globally. Ethiopia is experiencing a rapid increase in NCDI burden. The Ethiopia NCDI Commission aimed to determine the burden of NCDIs, prioritize health sector interventions for NCDIs and estimate the cost and available fiscal-space for NCDI interventions. METHODS: We retrieved data on NCDI disease burden and concomitant risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, complemented by systematic review of published literature from Ethiopia. Cost-effective interventions were identified through a structured priority-setting process and costed using the One Health tool. We conducted fiscal-space analysis to identify an affordable package of NCDI services in Ethiopia. RESULTS: We find that there is a large and diverse NCDI disease burden and their risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes (these conditions are NCDIs themselves and could be risk factors to other NCDIs), including less common but more severe NCDIs such as rheumatic heart disease and cancers in women. Mental, neurological, chronic respiratory and surgical conditions also contribute to a substantial proportion of NCDI disease burden in Ethiopia. Among an initial list of 235 interventions, the commission recommended 90 toppriority NCDI interventions (including essential surgery) for implementation. The additional annual cost for scaling up of these interventions was estimated at US$550m (about US$4.7 per capita). CONCLUSIONS: A targeted investment in cost-effective interventions could result in substantial reduction in premature mortality and may be within the projected fiscal space of Ethiopia. Innovative financing mechanisms, multi-sectoral governance, regional implementation, and an integrated service delivery approach mainly using primary health care are required to achieve these goals.publishedVersio

Protocol for an evaluation of the initiation of an integrated longitudinal outpatient care model for severe chronic non-communicable diseases (PEN-Plus) at secondary care facilities (district hospitals) in 10 lower-income countries

Introduction The Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions—Plus (PEN-Plus) is a strategy decentralising care for severe non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including type 1 diabetes, rheumatic heart disease and sickle cell disease, to increase access to care. In the PEN-Plus model, mid-level clinicians in intermediary facilities in low and lower middle income countries are trained to provide integrated care for conditions where services traditionally were only available at tertiary referral facilities. For the upcoming phase of activities, 18 first-level hospitals in 9 countries and 1 state in India were selected for PEN-Plus expansion and will treat a variety of severe NCDs. Over 3 years, the countries and state are expected to: (1) establish PEN-Plus clinics in one or two district hospitals, (2) support these clinics to mature into training sites in preparation for national or state-level scale-up, and (3) work with the national or state-level stakeholders to describe, measure and advocate for PEN-Plus to support development of a national operational plan for scale-up.Methods and analysis Guided by Proctor outcomes for implementation research, we are conducting a mixed-method evaluation consisting of 10 components to understand outcomes in clinical implementation, training and policy development. Data will be collected through a mix of quantitative surveys, routine reporting, routine clinical data and qualitative interviews.Ethics and dissemination This protocol has been considered exempt or covered by central and local institutional review boards. Findings will be disseminated throughout the project’s course, including through quarterly M&amp;E discussions, semiannual formative assessments, dashboard mapping of progress, quarterly newsletters, regular feedback loops with national stakeholders and publication in peer-reviewed journals