Real Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting

The break-even inflation rate (BEIR) is calculated by comparing the yields on conventional and Real Return Bonds. Defined as the average rate of inflation that equates the expected returns on these two bonds, the BEIR has the potential to contain useful information about long-run inflation expectations. Yet the BEIR has been higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations, which may be explained by the effects of premiums and distortions embedded in the BEIR. Because of the difficulty in accounting for these distortions, the BEIR should not be given a large weight as a measure of long-run inflation expectations at this time. However, as the Real Return Bond market continues to develop, the BEIR should become a more useful indicator of inflation expectations. At present, it demonstrates no clear advantage over survey measures and even past inflation rates in forecasting near-term inflation.

Non-linear relationship of cell hit and transformation probabilities in a low dose of inhaled radon progenies

Cellular hit probabilities of alpha particles emitted by inhaled radon progenies in sensitive bronchial epithelial cell nuclei were simulated at low exposure levels to obtain useful data for the rejection or support of the linear-non-threshold (LNT) hypothesis. In this study, local distributions of deposited inhaled radon progenies in airway bifurcation models were computed at exposure conditions characteristic of homes and uranium mines. Then, maximum local deposition enhancement factors at bronchial airway bifurcations, expressed as the ratio of local to average deposition densities, were determined to characterise the inhomogeneity of deposition and to elucidate their effect on resulting hit probabilities. The results obtained suggest that in the vicinity of the carinal regions of the central airways the probability of multiple hits can be quite high, even at low average doses. Assuming a uniform distribution of activity there are practically no multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose exhibits a linear shape in the low dose range. The results are quite the opposite in the case of hot spots revealed by realistic deposition calculations, where practically all cells receive multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose is non-linear in the average dose range of 10–100 mGy

Inflation expectations from index-linked bonds: Correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia

We provide a critical assessment of the method used by the Cleveland Fed to correct expected inflation derived from index-linked bonds for liquidity and inflation risk premia and show how their method can be adapted to account for time-varying inflation risk premia. Furthermore, we show how sensitive the Cleveland Fed approach is to different measures of the liquidity premium. In addition we propose an alternative approach to decompose the bias in inflation expectations derived from index-linked bonds using a state-space estimation. Our results show that once one accounts for time-varying liquidity and inflation risk premia current 10-year U.S. inflation expectations are lower than estimated by the Cleveland Fed

Historical Development of the Linear Nonthreshold Dose-Response Model as Applied to Radiation

[Excerpt] Despite the nearly universal adoption of the linear nonthreshold dose response model (LNT) as the primary basis for radiation protection standards for the past half century, the LNT remains highly controversial and a contentious topic of discussion among health physicists, radiation biologists, and other radiological scientists. Indeed, it has been pointed out that the LNT has assumed the status of a paradigm, synonymous with an ideal, standard, or paragon or perhaps to some, a sacred cow. Reduced to its very basics, the LNT postulates that every increment of ionizing radiation dose, however small, carries with it a commensurate increase in the chance or risk that the exposed individual will suffer some undesirable radiation effect, and that the risk thus incurred is directly proportional or linearly related to the dose. The specific effects are termed “stochastic,” which has been defined as “of a random or statistical nature.” Stochastic or probabilistic effects of radiation may occur as a result of low doses and are generally taken to be cancers (including leukemias) and genetic defects in the progeny. The severity of these radiation-induced stochastic effects, should they occur, are independent of the dose that produced them; thus, even though the likelihood or probability of an occurrence may be small to negligible, any and all manifestations of a radiation induced stochastic effect will have equal severity. By contrast, higher doses of radiation are known to produce characteristic somatic or deterministic effects including erythema, epilation, sterility, diminution of blood cell counts, cataracts and, in very high exposures, acute and chronic radiation syndromes. Such frank biological effects are nonstochastic in nature (in fact, they were at one time termed “nonstochastic effects”) and will always be manifested once a particular minimum dose – i.e., a “threshold” – has been received. The severity of the effect is related to the dose. Below the threshold dose there will be no demonstrable effect; as the dose increases beyond the threshold, so does the severity of the effect, or the degree of harm. … The purpose of the above discussion is to illustrate the underlying controversy and confusion that surrounds the LNT today, as well to underscore the lack of precision that sometimes accompanies the arguments of both the proponents and opponents of the LNT. Given that the LNT is a low dose phenomenon, there needs to at least be consensus on what is low dose, and such a consensus needs also to include consideration of other relevant and important factors such as the dose rate and specific stochastic end point (i.e., type of cancer or mutation). With this as a backdrop, the historical development and gyrations that led to the LNT as it is currently applied (or, some would say, misapplied) in radiological protection can be examined in the context of current scientific thinking with respect to radiation effects. It is not the purpose of this paper to endorse any particular position or to take sides but rather to present the story in a factual and fair minded manner. Hopefully, what follows will successfully achieve this goal. Thus, this paper will briefly review the scientific bases and supporting studies that led to the development and acceptance of the LNT in health physics. It will briefly touch on such topics as hormesis and other studies, such as the classic work of the late Robley Evans, that clearly demonstrate a threshold and nonlinear response for certain stochastic effects such as osteogenic sarcoma, along with the plethora of studies that suggest or have been interpreted to indicate that for at least some end points (i.e., cancers), response to ionizing radiation is consistent with the LNT model

Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate

According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. The authors find that this measure was higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations between 1992 and 2003. They examine whether risk premiums and distortions embedded in this interest rate gap can account for these facts. Their results indicate that distortions were likely an important reason for the high level and variation of this measure over much of the 1990s. There is little evidence that the distortions examined were as important between 2000 and 2003, but the high level of the break-even inflation rate in 2004 may be evidence of their return. Given the potential distortions, and the difficulty in identifying them, the authors conclude that it is premature to consider this measure a reliable gauge of monetary policy credibility. In addition, it is not as useful as competing tools for short- and medium-term inflation forecasting.Interest rates; Inflation and prices; Market structure and pricing

Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?

We analyze contributions of different markets to price discovery on traded inflation expectations and how it changed during the financial crisis. The quicker information is processed on one market and the less one market is disrupted by the financial crisis the more valuable is its information for central banks and market participants. We use a new high frequency data set on inflation-indexed and nominal government bonds as well as inflation swaps to calculate information shares of break-even inflation rates in the euro area and the US. For maturities up to 5 years new information comes from both the swap and the bond markets. For longer maturities the swap market provides less and less information in the euro area. In the US where the market volume of inflation-linked bonds is large the bond market dominates the price discovery process for all maturities. The severe financial crisis that spread out in Autumn 2008 drove a wedge between bond and swap break-even inflation rates in both currencies. Price discovery ceased to take place on the swap market. Disruptions coming from the short-end of the market even separated price formation on both segments for maturities of up to 6 years in the US. Against the backdrop of the most severe financial crisis in decades contributions to price formation concentrated a lot more on the presumably safest financial instrument: government bonds. --Inflation-linked bonds,inflation swaps,price discovery,financial crisis

The Rocky Ride of Break-even-inflation rates.

The correlation matrix between break-even inflation rate movements and real interest rate movements across several countries shows puzzling features. Correlation is significantly positive for nearly all cross-border pairs whereas it is nil, positive or negative unsystematically within countries. By means of a correlation matrix decomposition, we provide an explanation for this puzzle.Inflation-linked bonds ; Break-even inflation rates

Break-even inflation rate and the risk premium: an alternative approach to the VAR models in forecasting the CPI

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities are an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us to conclude that the inflation risk premium, for some maturities considered, varies over time and is not irrelevant from the economic standpoint. We also compared the inflation forecasts obtained from BEIRs with the ones extracted from VAR models used by Central Bank and estimates from the Focus Survey Report's Top5s. The forecasts performed with BEIRs showed greater accuracy than those extracted from VAR models. These projections, however, underperformed those from the Top5s.break-even inflation rate, inflation expectations, inflation

A Survey of the Czechoslovak Follow-up of Lung Cancer Mortality in Uranium Miners

The major Czechoslovak cohort of uranium miners (S-cohort) is surveyed in terms of diagrams illustrating dependences on calendar year, age, and exposure to radon and radon progeny. An analysis of the dose dependence of lung cancer mortality is performed by nonparametric and, subsequently, by parametric methods. In the first step, two-dimensional isotonic regression is employed to derive the lung cancer mortality rate and the relative excess risk as functions of age attained and of lagged cumulated exposure. In a second step, analytical fits in terms of relative risk models are derived. The treatment is largely analogous to the methods applied by the BEIR IV Committee to other major cohorts of uranium miners. There is a marked dependence of the excess risk on age attained and on time since exposure. A specific characteristic of the Czechoslovak data is the nonlinearity of the dependence of the lung cancer excess risk on the cumulated exposure; exposures on the order of 100 working level months or less appear to be more effective per working level month than larger exposures but, in the absence of an internal control group, this cannot be excluded to be due to confounders such as smoking or environmental exposures. A further notable observation is the association of larger excess risks with longer protraction of the exposures

Step by step optimization of a sperm cryopreservation protocol for spotted wolffish (Anarhichas minor Olafsen, 1772)

Spotted wolffish Anarhichas minor reproduction in captivity is dependent on in vitro fertilization. However, low sperm volume with relatively low cell concentration and the lack of gametes synchronization (simultaneous availability of mature eggs and sperm) represent a challenge for the industry. Thus, the development of protocols for sperm storage are crucial. Four sequential experiments were conducted to optimize a sperm cryopreservation protocol for this species. First, three different cryoprotectants (DMSO; 1, 2-propanediol; and methanol) at different concentrations (5, 10, and 20%) were tested for their toxicity. No significant differences (p > 0.05) were detected between the control samples and cryoprotectants at concentration up to 10% DMSO, 10% propanediol, and 20% methanol in terms of motility parameters. Second, using the highest non-toxic concentrations of cryoprotectants, sperm was cryopreserved in 0.5 mL straws, at different distances from the liquid nitrogen (1.5, 2.5, 4.5, and 7.5 cm) that correspond to different freezing rates. Motility parameters after freezing/thawing decreased for all the cryoprotectants (p  0.05) between the two thawing rates. The best results were obtained using 10% DMSO. Finally, the fertilization capacity of cryopreserved sperm (10% DMSO and thawed at 5 °C for 1 min) was tested against fresh sperm using two spermatozoa:egg ratios and 4 h gametes contact time. The ratio of eggs with normal cell cleavage, abnormal cleavage or undeveloped were counted at the 2-4 cell stage. Cryopreserved sperm showed lower fertilization capacity at a concentration of 5 × 104 spermatozoa:egg compared with fresh sperm (p  0.05). To cryopreserve spotted wolffish sperm it is recommended to use 10% DMSO, loaded in 0.5 mL straws, freeze at a height between 4.5 (-14.05 °C/min) and 7.5 cm (-5.9 °C/min) from liquid nitrogen for 10 min and thaw for 1 min at 5 °C (177.9 °C/min). In vitro fertilization with cryopreserved sperm should be performed with a concentration of at least 5 × 105 spermatozoa per egg.WOLFSTORE project (AF0078) supported by the MABIT program from Norway. JS was supported by a Cost action FA1205 AQUAGAMETE and an ERASMUS grant.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio