Decoding solar wind–magnetosphere coupling

We employ a new NARMAX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs) code to disentangle the time-varying relationship between the solar wind and SYM-H. The NARMAX method has previously been used to formulate a Dst model, using a preselected solar wind coupling function. In this work, which uses the higher-resolution SYM-H in place of Dst, we are able to reveal the individual components of different solar wind-magnetosphere interaction processes as they contribute to the geomagnetic disturbance. This is achieved with a graphics processing unit (GPU)-based NARMAX code that is around 10 orders of magnitude faster than previous efforts from 2005, before general-purpose programming on GPUs was possible. The algorithm includes a composite cost function, to minimize overfitting, and iterative reorthogonalization, which reduces computational errors in the most critical calculations by a factor of ∼106. The results show that negative deviations in SYM-H following a southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) are first a measure of the increased magnetic flux in the geomagnetic tail, observed with a delay of 20–30 min from the time the solar wind hits the bow shock. Terms with longer delays are found which represent the dipolarization of the magnetotail, the injections of particles into the ring current, and their subsequent loss by flowout through the dayside magnetopause. Our results indicate that the contribution of magnetopause currents to the storm time indices increase with solar wind electric field, E = v × B. This is in agreement with previous studies that have shown that the magnetopause is closer to the Earth when the IMF is in the tangential direction

How do consumers differentiate between fresh food stores

In making their decision to purchase fresh food from a retail store, the consumer behaviour literature identifies three key factors: (i) offer quality; (ii) a competitive price; and (iii) convenience. In an effort to reduce the decline in patronage as more fresh produce moves directly from growers to the major chain stores, the Perth Metropolitan Market commissioned an exploratory study to identify how consumers choose between alternative retail stores. Four categories of store were identified: (i) the major supermarkets; (ii) independent supermarkets; (iii) green grocers; and (iv) grower direct markets. Results reveal that for the major supermarkets, all three factors: quality, competitive price and convenience were rated equally, implying a one-stop shop. For the independent supermarkets, which are primarily located closer to the consumers' place of residence, convenience was the key determining variable. For the independent green grocers and grower direct markets, superior quality and a wide range of product was most important. While consumers generally purchase 80% of the fresh produce they consumed from their preferred place of purchase, convenience was identified as the main reason to purchase from another retail store

Substorm induced energetic electron precipitation:morphology and prediction

The injection, and subsequent precipitation, of 20 to 300 keV electrons during substorms is modeled using parameters of a typical substorm found in the literature. When combined with onset timing from, for example, the SuperMAG substorm database, or the Minimal Substorm Model, it may be used to calculate substorm contributions to energetic electron precipitation in atmospheric chemistry and climate models. Here the results are compared to ground-based data from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies riometer in Kilpisjärvi, Finland, and the narrowband subionospheric VLF receiver at Sodankylä, Finland. Qualitatively, the model reproduces the observations well when only onset timing from the SuperMAG network of magnetometers is used as an input and is capable of reproducing all four categories of substorm associated riometer spike events. The results suggest that the different types of spike event are the same phenomena observed at different locations, with each type emerging from the model results at a different local time, relative to the center of the injection region. The model's ability to reproduce the morphology of spike events more accurately than previous models is attributed to the injection of energetic electrons being concentrated specifically in the regions undergoing dipolarization, instead of uniformly across a single-injection region

Model based, detailed fault analysis in the CERN PS complex equipment

In the CERN PS Complex of accelerators, about a thousand of equipment of various type (power converters, RF cavities, beam measurement devices, vacuum systems etc...) are controlled using the so-called Control Protocol, already described in previous Conferences. This Protocol, a model based equipment access standard, provides, amongst other facilities, a uniform and structured fault description and report feature. The faults are organized in categories, following their gravity, and are presented at two levels: the first level is global and identical for all devices, the second level is very detailed and adapted to the peculiarities of each single device. All the relevant information is provided by the equipment specialists and is appropriately stored in static and real time data bases; in this way a unique set of data driven application programs can always cope with existing and newly added equipment. Two classes of applications have been implemented, the first one is intended for control room alarm purposes, and the second one is oriented for specialists diagnostics. The system is completed by a fault history report facility permitting easy retrieval of faults previously occurred, for example during the night

On the origin of high m magnetospheric waves

A survey of Advanced Rio-Imaging Experiment in Scandinavia data reveals evidence for a previously overlooked generation mechanism of high azimuthal wave number magnetospheric waves. Here we present observations of pulsating cosmic noise absorption with azimuthal wave numbers as high as 380, suggestive of precipitation modulation by magnetospheric waves. Dispersion relations of the small-scale precipitation pulsations are indicative of the proposed origin. Previous studies of magnetospheric waves, together with data from the Charge And Mass Magnetospheric Ion Composition Experiment (Magnetospheric Ion Composition Sensor) instrument aboard the Polar spacecraft, provide support for the theory

Substorm-induced energetic electron precipitation:impact on atmospheric chemistry

Magnetospheric substorms drive energetic electron precipitation into the Earth's atmosphere. We use the output from a substorm model to describe electron precipitation forcing of the atmosphere during an active substorm period in April–May 2007. We provide the first estimate of substorm impact on the neutral composition of the polar middle atmosphere. Model simulations show that the enhanced ionization from a series of substorms leads to an estimated ozone loss of 5–50% in the mesospheric column depending on season. This is similar in scale to small to medium solar proton events (SPEs). This effect on polar ozone balance is potentially more important on long time scales (months to years) than the impulsive but sporadic (few SPE/year versus three to four substorms/day) effect of SPEs. Our results suggest that substorms should be considered an important source of energetic particle precipitation into the atmosphere and included in high-top chemistry-climate models

Developments in HF Propagation Predictions to Support Communications with Aircraft on Trans-polar Routes

Commercial airlines began operations over polar routes in 1999 with a small number of proving flights. By 2014 the number had increased to in excess of 12,000 flights per year, and further increases are expected. For safe operations, the aircraft have to be able to communicate with air traffic control centres at all times. This is achieved by VHF links whilst within range of the widespread network of ground stations, and by HF radio in remote areas such as the Polar regions, the North Atlantic and Pacific where VHF ground infrastructure does not exist. Furthermore, the Russian side of the pole only has HF capability. This has created a demand for improved HF nowcasting and forecasting procedures to support the polar operations, which are the subject of this paper

Properties of a large-scale flux rope and current sheet region on the dayside of Mars: MGS MAG/ER and MEX ASPERA-3 ELS observations

We present dual spacecraft observations by MGS MAG/ER and MEX ASPERA-3 ELS of a large-scale magnetic flux rope on the dayside of Mars that occurs in close proximity to the crustal magnetic fields and a dayside current sheet region. A current sheet (including the large-scale flux rope) was observed on repeated MGS orbits when the draped solar wind magnetic field present in the ionosphere had a +B component (in MSO). Minimum Variance Analysis (MVA) of the large-scale flux rope and two current sheet crossings that occur after show a common peak in magnetic field along the intermediate variance direction, indicating the normal component of a reconnecting current sheet. All repeated orbits demonstrated evidence of a plasma boundary by the decrease in electron differential flux above 100eV when moving into regions dominated by the crustal magnetic field, and coincided with the measured magnetic field strength being double the undisturbed crustal magnetic field. We argue this forms evidence of magnetic reconnection between crustal magnetic fields and draped solar wind magnetic field (from ionosphere or magnetosheath) at a "mini-magnetopause" type boundary on the dayside of Mars. Similar electron pitch angle distributions observed during the large-scale flux rope, current sheet crossings, and regions of radial crustal magnetic field, suggest these regions share a common magnetic field topology for the trapping of magnetosheath particles on open crustal magnetic fields on the dayside of Mars. As such, indicates a trapping quadrupole magnetic field exist either at the magnetic reconnection X-line region or where open crustal magnetic fields meet oppositely directed solar wind magnetic field. At a time when the draped solar wind magnetic field present in the ionosphere was weaker in strength, the current sheet crossing was observed over an extended region of 2000km. The extended current sheet demonstrated properties of a hot diamagnetic region and features of a mirror mode structure or magnetic hole, the first time such a structure has been found in the ionosphere of Mars. Observations suggests lower energy electrons could be accelerated by a local process of perpendicular heating/pitch angle diffusion and supports similar results at the Earth's polar cusp reported by Nykyri et al. (Nykyri et al. [2012]. J. Atmos. Sol-Terr. Phys. 87, 70). Such large scale and energetic structures are usually associated with regions beyond a planet's ionosphere, and the occurrence within the ionosphere of Mars may have an important impact on escape processes and the evolution of the martian atmosphere

Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%