On the timeliness of price discovery

Price discovery is the process whereby value-relevant, private information becomes impounded or reflected in a stock's publicly-observable market price. The timeliness of price discovery refers to how quickly that process takes effect. There is no reason to believe either that all private information is discovered equally quickly or that price discovery is equally speedy for all firms. The latter observation suggests it would be worthwhile knowing why the timeliness of price discovery differs across firms, even the more so in an environment where all listed companies by law must disclose most material price-sensitive information as soon as they become aware of it. The other observation, that not all private information is discovered equally quickly, implies we should focus on a material, periodic event when we compare timeliness across firms. A good candidate is the announcement of the company's annual results, since for many years is has been known that annual earnings alone captures at least half the value-relevant information released by the average firm over the 12 months leading up to this date. We use various approaches to explore measures of timeliness and what they can tell us. We review a number of studies that have considered various aspects of timeliness in different countries and extend and contrast their findings. We also examine the relationship between the timeliness of price discovery and analogous measures based upon firms' formal disclosures to the share market and upon analysts' consensus earnings forecasts. Finally, we report on an issue of major concern to regulators and market operators, namely the influence of corporate governance on the timeliness of price discovery

On the statistical mechanics of prion diseases

We simulate a two-dimensional, lattice based, protein-level statistical mechanical model for prion diseases (e.g., Mad Cow disease) with concommitant prion protein misfolding and aggregation. Our simulations lead us to the hypothesis that the observed broad incubation time distribution in epidemiological data reflect fluctuation dominated growth seeded by a few nanometer scale aggregates, while much narrower incubation time distributions for innoculated lab animals arise from statistical self averaging. We model `species barriers' to prion infection and assess a related treatment protocol.Comment: 5 Pages, 3 eps figures (submitted to Physical Review Letters

Foodborne transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to nonhuman primates

Risk for human exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-inducing agent was estimated in a nonhuman primate model. To determine attack rates, incubation times, and molecular signatures, we orally exposed 18 macaques to 1 high dose of brain material from cattle with BSE. Several macaques were euthanized at regular intervals starting at 1 year postinoculation, and others were observed until clinical signs developed. Among those who received >5 g BSE-inducing agent, attack rates were 100% and prions could be detected in peripheral tissues from 1 year postinoculation onward. The overall median incubation time was 4.6 years (3.7-5.3). However, for 3 macaques orally exposed on multiple occasions, incubation periods were at least 7-10 years. Before clinical signs were noted, we detected a non-type 2B signature, indicating the existence of atypical prion protein during the incubation period. This finding could affect diagnosis of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans and might be relevant for retrospective studies of positive tonsillectomy or appendectomy specimens because time of infection is unknown

A Calanais myth and an alignment of the east stone-row with both the rising of the Pleiades and crossovers of Venus at sunrise on the summer solstices

Acknowledgements My thanks to Stefan Sagrott of Historic Environment Scotland for his help in obtaining Patrick Ashmore’s data and to David Forrest, School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, for providing a copy of David Tait’s map of Calanais.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The syntax of ‘-cā’ (*-kwe) in Ahunavaiti Gāthā

This paper seeks to provide a full description of the syntactic behaviour of the enclitic co-ordinate conjunction -cā in the earliest stage of the Avestan language. By studying the occurrences of the particle in Ahunavaiti Gāthā, a distributive analysis is provided together with an interpretative hypothesis of its distributive dynamics. Two syntactic levels, phrase and sentence, are taken into consideration. Finally, a syntactic domain-based variation is argued and two clitic functional variants are identified as synchronically operating conjunction strategies

Biochemical Properties of Highly Neuroinvasive Prion Strains

Infectious prions propagate from peripheral entry sites into the central nervous system (CNS), where they cause progressive neurodegeneration that ultimately leads to death. Yet the pathogenesis of prion disease can vary dramatically depending on the strain, or conformational variant of the aberrantly folded and aggregated protein, PrPSc. Although most prion strains invade the CNS, some prion strains cannot gain entry and do not cause clinical signs of disease. The conformational basis for this remarkable variation in the pathogenesis among strains is unclear. Using mouse-adapted prion strains, here we show that highly neuroinvasive prion strains primarily form diffuse aggregates in brain and are noncongophilic, conformationally unstable in denaturing conditions, and lead to rapidly lethal disease. These neuroinvasive strains efficiently generate PrPSc over short incubation periods. In contrast, the weakly neuroinvasive prion strains form large fibrillary plaques and are stable, congophilic, and inefficiently generate PrPSc over long incubation periods. Overall, these results indicate that the most neuroinvasive prion strains are also the least stable, and support the concept that the efficient replication and unstable nature of the most rapidly converting prions may be a feature linked to their efficient spread into the CNS

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Expression of selected genes isolated from whole blood, liver and obex in lambs with experimental classical scrapie and healthy controls, showing a systemic innate immune response at the clinical end-stage

Abstract Background Incubation period, disease progression, pathology and clinical presentation of classical scrapie in sheep are highly dependent on PRNP genotype, time and route of inoculation and prion strain. Our experimental model with pre-colostrum inoculation of homozygous VRQ lambs has shown to be an effective model with extensive PrPSc dissemination in lymphatic tissue and a short incubation period with severe clinical disease. Serum protein analysis has shown an elevation of acute phase proteins in the clinical stages of this experimental model, and here, we investigate changes in gene expression in whole blood, liver and brain. Results The animals in the scrapie group showed severe signs of illness 22 weeks post inoculation necessitating euthanasia at 23 weeks post inoculation. This severe clinical presentation was accompanied by changes in expression of several genes. The following genes were differentially expressed in whole blood: TLR2, TLR4, C3, IL1B, LF and SAA, in liver tissue, the following genes differentially expressed: TNF-α, SAA, HP, CP, AAT, TTR and TF, and in the brain tissue, the following genes were differentially expressed: HP, CP, ALB and TTR. Conclusions We report a strong and evident transcriptional innate immune response in the terminal stage of classical scrapie in these animals. The PRNP genotype and time of inoculation are believed to contribute to the clinical presentation, including the extensive dissemination of PrPSc throughout the lymphatic tissue