Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics

Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of  ∼  11.5 DU decade⁻¹, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by  ∼  50–100 DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Clᵧ) over the century, the estimated mean halogen-induced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century. The ensemble shows a significant cooling trend in the Arctic winter mid- and upper stratosphere, but there is less confidence in the projected temperature trends in the lower stratosphere (100–50 hPa). This is partly due to an increase in downwelling over the Arctic polar cap in winter, which increases transport of ozone into the polar region as well as drives adiabatic warming that partly offsets the radiatively driven stratospheric cooling. However, individual winters characterised by significantly suppressed downwelling, reduced transport and anomalously low temperatures continue to occur in the future. We conclude that, despite the projected long-term recovery of Arctic ozone, the large interannual dynamical variability is expected to continue in the future, thereby facilitating episodic reductions in springtime ozone columns. Whilst our results suggest that the relative role of dynamical processes for determining Arctic springtime ozone will increase in the future, halogen chemistry will remain a smaller but non-negligible contributor for many decades to come.We thank NCAS Computational Model Support for help with setting up and porting the model. We acknowledge the ARCHER UK National Supercomputing Service. We acknowledge use of the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and the NERC. Amanda C. Maycock, John A. Pyle and N. Luke Abraham were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, a NERC-funded research centre. We acknowledge funding from the ERC for the ACCI project (grant number 267760), including a PhD studentship for Ewa M. Bednarz. Amanda C. Maycock acknowledges support from an AXA postdoctoral fellowship and NERC grant NE/M018199/1

Separating the role of direct radiative heating and photolysis in modulating the atmospheric response to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle forcing

The atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle is separated into the contributions from changes in direct radiative heating and photolysis rates using specially designed sensitivity simulations with the UM-UKCA (Unified Model coupled to the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol model) chemistry–climate model. We perform a number of idealised time-slice experiments under perpetual solar maximum (SMAX) and minimum conditions (SMIN), and we find that contributions from changes in direct heating and photolysis rates are both important for determining the stratospheric shortwave heating, temperature and ozone responses to the amplitude of the 11-year solar cycle. The combined effects of the processes are found to be largely additive in the tropics but nonadditive in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the original mechanism proposed in the literature, the solar-induced changes in the horizontal shortwave heating rate gradients not only in autumn/early winter but throughout the dynamically active season are important for modulating the dynamical response to changes in solar forcing. In spring, these gradients are strongly influenced by the shortwave heating anomalies at higher southern latitudes, which are closely linked to the concurrent changes in ozone. In addition, our simulations indicate differences in the winter SH dynamical responses between the experiments. We suggest a couple of potential drivers of the simulated differences, i.e. the role of enhanced zonally asymmetric ozone heating brought about by the increased solar-induced ozone levels under SMAX and/or sensitivity of the polar dynamical response to the altitude of the anomalous radiative tendencies. All in all, our results suggest that solar-induced changes in ozone, both in the tropics/mid-latitudes and the polar regions, are important for modulating the SH dynamical response to the 11-year solar cycle. In addition, the markedly nonadditive character of the SH polar vortex response simulated in austral spring highlights the need for consistent model implementation of the solar cycle forcing in both the radiative heating and photolysis schemes

Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations

We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models

Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model

Abstract. Chemical and dynamical drivers of trends in tropical total-column ozone (TCO3) for the recent past and future periods are explored using the UM-UKCA (Unified Model HadGEM3-A (Hewitt et al., 2011) coupled with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol scheme) chemistry–climate model. A transient 1960–2100 simulation is analysed which follows the representative concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0) emissions scenario for the future. Tropical averaged (10° S–10° N) TCO3 values decrease from the 1970s, reach a minimum around 2000 and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the ozone column is subdivided into three partial columns (PCO3) that cover the upper stratosphere (PCO3US), lower stratosphere (PCO3LS) and troposphere (PCO3T), significant differences in the temporal behaviour of the partial columns are seen. Modelled PCO3T values under the RCP6.0 emissions scenario increase from 1960 to 2000 before remaining approximately constant throughout the 21st century. PCO3LS values decrease rapidly from 1960 to 2000 and remain constant from 2000 to 2050, before gradually decreasing further from 2050 to 2100 and never returning to their 1980s values. In contrast, PCO3US values decrease from 1960 to 2000, before increasing rapidly throughout the 21st century and returning to 1980s values by  ∼  2020, and reach significantly higher values by 2100. Using a series of idealised UM-UKCA time-slice simulations with concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and halogenated ODS species set to either year 2000 or 2100 levels, we examine the main processes that drive the PCO3 responses in the three regions and assess how these processes change under different emission scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model to describe the future evolution of tropical stratospheric column ozone values based on terms representing time-dependent abundances of GHG and halogenated ODS. </jats:p

Volatiles in submarine glasses as a discriminant of tectonic origin: application to the Troodos ophiolite

ISOTOPE ratios and concentrations of incompatible trace elements are remarkably successful in discriminating the tectonic origin and magmatic source components for basalts1–5. But problems remain with discriminating the tectonic origin of some tholeiites, especially where field relations and other geological evidence are ambiguous. For example, the tectonic origin of basalts from the Troodos ophiolite (Cyprus) has been debated for several decades. Most workers have been unable to distinguish between an island-arc and/or back-arc origin for the ophiolite6–8. Here we use volatile, K2O and TiO2 contents from ∼250 fresh submarine volcanic glasses to discriminate between tholeiites from different tectonic regimes. K2O÷H2O ratios are lower (<0.70) in spread ing-centre glasses than in those from island arcs and intraplate oceanic islands. Back-arc-basin basalts can generally be separated from mid-ocean-ridge basalts by their high H2O contents. Using this information, we show that some fresh glasses from the Troodos ophiolite have a clear back-arc-basin affinity