Heigh-Ho: CPS and the seven questions – Some thoughts on contemporary complex problem solving research

Research on complex problem solving (CPS) has reached a stage where certain standards have been achieved, whereas the future development is quite ambiguous. In this situation, the editors of the Journal of Dynamic Decision Making asked a number of representative authors to share their point of view with respect to seven questions about the relevance of (complex) problem solving as a research area, about the contribution of laboratory-based CPS research to solving real life problems, about the roles of knowledge, strategies, and intuition in CPS, and about the existence of expertise in CPS

One situation doesn’t fit all: Variability and stability of state willingness to communicate in a Chinese College English classroom

Willingness to communicate (WTC) used to be studied as a relatively stable, trait-like predisposition; however, recently attention has shifted to the more dynamic, state-like components of WTC. This research investigates variability and stability in state WTC, particularly focusing on within-person variability, which may lead to stable between-person differences, and situational antecedents that can either promote or hinder state WTC in L2 classrooms. To investigate whether, how and why state WTC varies over time, this study used a high-density repeated measurement design and a group of Chinese university students to describe fluctuations in state WTC in English classrooms over one semester. Data related to state WTC and selected situational antecedents were collected through a self-report questionnaire and statistically analysed. It was found that state WTC varied systematically within the person across the semester, and this variability was systematically related to changes in the psychological properties of the learning situations (e.g. teacher and peer support, taskinterest, and task-importance). It was also found that within-person variability in state WTC predicted language learning performance, e.g. students whose state WTC increased as a function of perceived task interest tended to achieve higher grades at the end of the semester. This study calls for more attention to be directed at within-person variability in state WTC, and provides novel insights into how relationships between state WTC and its situational antecedents may be investigated within individuals. This work is of interest to researchers and practitioners who aim to enhance L2 learners’ state WTC and language learning performance by systematically shaping their situated learning experience

On costs of good intentions: The effect of problem contextualisation on knowledge acquisition

In previous research it has been shown that a semantically familiar problem context can be detrimental to knowledge acquisition. The aim of this study was to test two competing explanations for this effect: goal adoption versus assumptions. Participants were asked to learn about the causal structure of a linear system presented on a computer through goal free exploration. Across four conditions the level of context familiarity was experimentally varied. Results lend no evidence for goal adoption as an explanation for poor knowledge acquisition under familiar conditions. Rather, it appears that a high number of a priori assumptions that tend not to be tested systematically are the main barrier to the acquisition of new knowledge. Implications for research in problem solving, knowledge acquisition and the design of computer-based learning environments are discussed

Personality dynamics at work: The effects of form, time, and context of variability

The study aimed to investigate the status of within-person state variability in neuroticism and conscientiousness as individual differences constructs by exploring their (a) temporal stability, (b) cross-context consistency, (c) empirical links to selected antecedents, and (d) empirical links to longer-term trait variability. Employing a sample of professionals (N = 346) from Australian organizations, personality state data together with situation appraisals were collected using experience sampling methodology in field and repeatedly in lab-like settings. Data on personality traits, cognitive ability, and motivational mindsets were collected at baseline and after two years. Contingent (situation contingencies) and noncontingent (relative SD) state variability indices were relatively stable over time and across contexts. Only a small number of predictive effects of state variability were observed, and these differed across contexts. Cognitive ability appeared to be associated with state variability under lab-like conditions. There was limited evidence of links between short-term state and long-term trait variability, except for a small effect for neuroticism. Some evidence of positive manifold was found for non-contingent variability. Systematic efforts are required to further elucidate the complex pattern of results regarding the antecedents, correlates and outcomes of individual differences in state variability

Beyond psychometrics: the difference between difficult problem solving and complex problem solving

In this paper we argue that a synthesis of findings across the various sub-areas of research in complex problem solving and consequently progress in theory building is hampered by an insufficient differentiation of complexity and difficulty. In the proposed framework of person, task, and situation (PTS), complexity is conceptualized as a quality that is determined by the cognitive demands that the characteristics of the task and the situation impose. Difficulty represents the quantifiable level of a person’s success in dealing with such demands. We use the well-documented “semantic effect” as an exemplar for testing some of the conceptual assumptions derived from the PTS framework. We demonstrate how a differentiation between complexity and difficulty can help take beyond a potentially too narrowly defined psychometric perspective and subsequently gain a better understanding of the cognitive mechanisms behind this effect. In an empirical study a total of 240 university students were randomly allocated to one of four conditions. The four conditions resulted from contrasting the semanticity level of the variable labels used in the CPS system (high vs. low) and two instruction conditions for how to explore the CPS system’s causal structure (starting with the assumption that all relationships between variables existed vs. starting with the assumption that none of the relationships existed). The variation in the instruction aimed at inducing knowledge acquisition processes of either (1) systematic elimination of presumptions, or (2) systematic compilation of a mental representation of the causal structure underpinning the system. Results indicate that (a) it is more complex to adopt a “blank slate” perspective under high semanticity as it requires processes of inhibiting prior assumptions, and (b) it seems more difficult to employ a systematic heuristic when testing against presumptions. In combination, situational characteristics, such as the semanticity of variable labels, have the potential to trigger qualitatively different tasks. Failing to differentiate between ‘task’ and ‘situation’ as independent sources of complexity and treating complexity and difficulty synonymously threaten the validity of performance scores obtained in CPS research

More than the eye of the beholder: The interplay of person, task, and situation factors in evaluative judgements of creativity

Judging creativity accurately is difficult. Individuals who are involved in product creation tend to overestimate the creativity of their work; individuals not involved lack understanding of the creative process that led to the product under scrutiny. We studied creativity judgements in a tripartite person–task–situation framework. Under high, medium, or no structure conditions and different orders of evaluation, participants (N = 90) rated the creativity and purchase appeal of products created by themselves and others. Accuracy was defined as differences from consensus evaluations of participants not involved in production (N = 30). Moderator analyses suggest that externally set structure of the evaluation process (e.g., using a set of criteria) facilitates the quality of creativity judgement. In unstructured conditions, evaluating one's own product before evaluating a peer's leads to low accuracy, but higher levels of conscientiousness seem to mitigate potentially deleterious effects of lack of structure. Higher levels of openness facilitated accurate creativity judgements of peer-produced products, but not self-produced products. A person–task–situation approach is needed to fully unpack the complexity of processes underlying accurate evaluation of creativity

The role of learning in complex problem solving using MicroDYN

It is still an open question which cognitive and non-cognitive personality traits are useful for describing and explaining behaviour and performance in complex problems. During complex problem solving (CPS), problem solvers have to interact with the task in a way in which learning ability might be beneficial for successful task completion. By investigating the relationship between learning ability and CPS, while accounting for interactions between complex system characteristics and person characteristics, this paper aims to understand the role of learning processes in CPS more closely. In a sample of N = 241 participants, we performed a preregistered analysis to investigate the relationship between knowledge acquisition performance in a CPS test (MicroDYN) and learning test performance (ADAFI) with a multilevel modeling approach across 10 CPS systems with various characteristics. In line with our expectations, we replicated previous findings on a relationship between learning test and MicroDYN performance and found this relationship to be more pronounced in systems with (vs. without) autonomous changes. Further system and person characteristics also showed effects as expected, with better performance in systems with lower complexity, with more experience with the task, and with more strategic exploration behaviour. Our results provide further evidence for the notion that learning is an important component for the successful completion of CPS tasks

Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques