Klein River Estuary (South Africa): 2D numerical modelling of estuary breaching

2D numerical modelling of the breaching process of the Klein River Estuary in South Africa was carried out. The model was calibrated on field data and performs reasonably well, and is able to simulate the ebb and flood channels that form upstream of the mouth. The focus of the simulations was to determine the effectiveness of flushing of sediments during breaching, by investigating the breaching process at different water levels in the estuary, as well as at two different areas along the berm. Breaching at higher water levels increases the effectiveness of flushing as the discharge through the mouth increases significantly at higher water levels. Flushing towards the middle or south-east side of the berm is much more effective than towards the north-west side.Keywords: estuary, breaching, Klein River, sediment flushing, numerical modellin

Absence of inspiratory laryngeal constrictor muscle activity during nasal neurally adjusted ventilatory assist in newborn lambs

It has been demonstrated that a progressive increase in nasal pressure support ventilation (nPSV) leads to an active inspiratory glottal closure in non-sedated newborn lambs, which limits lung ventilation (24, 33). Unlike nPSV, the pressure delivered during nasal Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (nNAVA) is synchronized to the diaphragm electrical activity on inspiration (36). Given the tight neural integration of the glottal dilators and constrictors with diaphragm activity on inspiration and expiration respectively, the aim of the present study was to test the hypothesis that inspiratory glottal closure does not develop during nNAVA. Polysomnographic recordings were performed in eight non-sedated, chronically instrumented lambs, which were ventilated with progressively increasing levels of nPSV and nNAVA, in random order. States of alertness, diaphragm and glottal muscle electrical activity, tracheal pressure, SpO2, tracheal PETCO2 and respiratory inductive plethysmography were continuously recorded. While phasic inspiratory glottal constrictor electrical activity appeared with increasing levels of nPSV in 5 out of 8 lambs, it was never observed at any nNAVA level in any lamb, even at maximal achievable nNAVA levels. In addition, a decrease in arterial PCO2 was neither necessary nor sufficient for the development of phasic inspiratory glottal constrictor activity. In conclusion, nNAVA does not induce active glottal closure in non-sedated newborn lambs at high-pressure levels, in contrast to nPSV

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Integrating psychological theory into the design of an online intervention for sexual health: the sexunzipped website.

BACKGROUND: The Internet can provide a confidential and convenient medium for sexual health promotion for young people. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the development of an interactive, theory-based website (Sexunzipped) aimed at increasing safe sexual behavior of young people, as well as an outline of the evaluation protocol. METHODS: The website focuses on safer sex, relationships, and sexual pleasure. An overview of the site is provided, including a description of the theoretical constructs which form the basis of the site development. An integrated behavioral model was chosen as the guiding theory for the Sexunzipped intervention. A randomized trial design will be used to evaluate the site quantitatively. RESULTS: The content of the site is described in detail with examples of the main content types: information pages, quizzes, and decision-making activities. We describe the protocol for quantitative evaluation of the website using a randomized trial design and discuss the principal challenges involved in developing the site, including the challenge of balancing the requirements of theory with young people's views on website content and design. CONCLUSIONS: Considerations for future interventions are discussed. Developing an online behavior-change intervention is costly and time consuming. Given the large public health potential, the cost involved in developing online interventions, and the need for attractive design, future interventions may benefit from collaborating with established sites that already have a user base, a brand, and a strong Internet presence. It is vital to involve users in decisions about intervention content, design, and features, paying attention to aspects that will attract and retain users' interest. A central challenge in developing effective Internet-based interventions for young people is to find effective ways to operationalize theory in ways that address the views and perspectives of young people

An unfolding signifier: London's Baltic Exchange in Tallinn

In the summer of 2007 an unusual cargo arrived at Muuga and Paldiski harbors outside Tallinn. It consisted of nearly 50 containers holding over 1,000 tons of building material ranging from marble columns, staircases and fireplaces, to sculpted allegorical figures, wooden paneling and old-fashioned telephone booths. They were once part of the Baltic Exchange in the City of London. Soon they will become facets of the landscape of Tallinn. The following article charts this remarkable story and deploys this fragmented monument to analyze three issues relating to the Estonian capital: the relocation of the ‘Bronze Soldier’, the demolition of the Sakala Culture Center, and Tallinn’s future role as European Cultural Capital in 2011

Impaired decisional impulsivity in pathological videogamers

Abstract Background Pathological gaming is an emerging and poorly understood problem. Impulsivity is commonly impaired in disorders of behavioural and substance addiction, hence we sought to systematically investigate the different subtypes of decisional and motor impulsivity in a well-defined pathological gaming cohort. Methods Fifty-two pathological gaming subjects and age-, gender- and IQ-matched healthy volunteers were tested on decisional impulsivity (Information Sampling Task testing reflection impulsivity and delay discounting questionnaire testing impulsive choice), and motor impulsivity (Stop Signal Task testing motor response inhibition, and the premature responding task). We used stringent diagnostic criteria highlighting functional impairment. Results In the Information Sampling Task, pathological gaming participants sampled less evidence prior to making a decision and scored fewer points compared with healthy volunteers. Gaming severity was also negatively correlated with evidence gathered and positively correlated with sampling error and points acquired. In the delay discounting task, pathological gamers made more impulsive choices, preferring smaller immediate over larger delayed rewards. Pathological gamers made more premature responses related to comorbid nicotine use. Greater number of hours played also correlated with a Motivational Index. Greater frequency of role playing games was associated with impaired motor response inhibition and strategy games with faster Go reaction time. Conclusions We show that pathological gaming is associated with impaired decisional impulsivity with negative consequences in task performance. Decisional impulsivity may be a potential target in therapeutic management

A mixed-methods study using a nonclinical sample to measure feasibility of ostrich community : a web-based cognitive behavioral therapy program for individuals with debt and associated stress

Background: There are increasing concerns about the health and well-being of individuals facing financial troubles. For instance, in the United Kingdom, the relationship between debt and mental health difficulties is becoming more evident due to the economic downturn and welfare reform. Access to debt counseling services is limited and individuals may be reluctant to access services due to stigma. In addition, most of these services may not be appropriately resourced to address the psychological impact of debt. This study describes outcomes from an Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (ICBT) program, Ostrich Community (OC), which was developed to provide support to those struggling with debt and associated psychological distress. Objective: The aim of this feasibility study was to assess the suitability and acceptability of the OC program in a nonclinical sample and examine mental health and well-being outcomes from using the program. Methods: A total of 15 participants (who were not suffering from severe financial difficulty) were assisted in working through the 8-week ICBT program. Participants rated usability and satisfaction with the program, and after completion 7 participants took part in a semistructured interview to provide further feedback. Before the first session and after the final session all participants completed questionnaires to measure well-being and levels of depression, stress, and anxiety and pre- and postscores were compared. Results: Satisfaction was high and themes emerging from the interviews indicate that the program has the potential to promote effective financial behaviors and improve financial and global psychosocial well-being. When postcompletion scores were compared with those taken before the program, significant improvements were identified on psychometric measures of well-being, stress, and anxiety. Conclusions: The OC program is the first ICBT program that targets poor mental health associated with financial difficulty. This feasibility study indicates that OC may be an effective intervention for increasing financial resilience, supporting individuals to become financially independent, and promoting positive financial and global well-being. Further work with individuals suffering from debt and associated emotional difficulties will help to examine clinical effectiveness more closely

Risk factors for hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis in England: a population-based birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission. DESIGN: A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. SETTING: 71 hospitals across England. PARTICIPANTS: We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life. RESULTS: In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis

From error bounds to the complexity of first-order descent methods for convex functions

This paper shows that error bounds can be used as effective tools for deriving complexity results for first-order descent methods in convex minimization. In a first stage, this objective led us to revisit the interplay between error bounds and the Kurdyka-\L ojasiewicz (KL) inequality. One can show the equivalence between the two concepts for convex functions having a moderately flat profile near the set of minimizers (as those of functions with H\"olderian growth). A counterexample shows that the equivalence is no longer true for extremely flat functions. This fact reveals the relevance of an approach based on KL inequality. In a second stage, we show how KL inequalities can in turn be employed to compute new complexity bounds for a wealth of descent methods for convex problems. Our approach is completely original and makes use of a one-dimensional worst-case proximal sequence in the spirit of the famous majorant method of Kantorovich. Our result applies to a very simple abstract scheme that covers a wide class of descent methods. As a byproduct of our study, we also provide new results for the globalization of KL inequalities in the convex framework. Our main results inaugurate a simple methodology: derive an error bound, compute the desingularizing function whenever possible, identify essential constants in the descent method and finally compute the complexity using the one-dimensional worst case proximal sequence. Our method is illustrated through projection methods for feasibility problems, and through the famous iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm (ISTA), for which we show that the complexity bound is of the form $O(q^{k})$ where the constituents of the bound only depend on error bound constants obtained for an arbitrary least squares objective with $\ell^1$ regularization

The price of tumor control: an analysis of rare side effects of anti-CTLA-4 therapy in metastatic melanoma from the ipilimumab network

Background: Ipilimumab, a cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen-4 (CTLA-4) blocking antibody, has been approved for the treatment of metastatic melanoma and induces adverse events (AE) in up to 64% of patients. Treatment algorithms for the management of common ipilimumab-induced AEs have lead to a reduction of morbidity, e.g. due to bowel perforations. However, the spectrum of less common AEs is expanding as ipilimumab is increasingly applied. Stringent recognition and management of AEs will reduce drug-induced morbidity and costs, and thus, positively impact the cost-benefit ratio of the drug. To facilitate timely identification and adequate management data on rare AEs were analyzed at 19 skin cancer centers. Methods and Findings: Patient files (n = 752) were screened for rare ipilimumab-associated AEs. A total of 120 AEs, some of which were life-threatening or even fatal, were reported and summarized by organ system describing the most instructive cases in detail. Previously unreported AEs like drug rash with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS), granulomatous inflammation of the central nervous system, and aseptic meningitis, were documented. Obstacles included patientś delay in reporting symptoms and the differentiation of steroid-induced from ipilimumab-induced AEs under steroid treatment. Importantly, response rate was high in this patient population with tumor regression in 30.9% and a tumor control rate of 61.8% in stage IV melanoma patients despite the fact that some patients received only two of four recommended ipilimumab infusions. This suggests that ipilimumab-induced antitumor responses can have an early onset and that severe autoimmune reactions may reflect overtreatment. Conclusion: The wide spectrum of ipilimumab-induced AEs demands doctor and patient awareness to reduce morbidity and treatment costs and true ipilimumab success is dictated by both objective tumor responses and controlling severe side effects