Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Osmoregulation of the Australian freshwater crocodile, Crocodylus johnstoni, in fresh and saline waters

An unusual saltwater population of the "freshwater" crocodilian, Crocodylus johnstoni, was studied in the estuary of the Limmen Bight River in Australia's Northern Territory and compared with populations in permanently freshwater habitats. Crocodiles in the river were found across a large salinity gradient, from fresh water to a salinity of 24 mg.ml-1, more than twice the body fluid concentration. Plasma osmolarity, concentrations of plasma Na+, Cl-, and K+, and exchangeable Na+ pools were all remarkably constant across the salinity spectrum and were not substantially higher or more variable than those in crocodiles from permanently freshwater habitats. Body fluid volumes did not vary; condition factor and hydration status of crocodiles were not correlated with salinity and were not different from those of crocodiles from permanently fresh water. C. johnstoni clearly has considerable powers of osmoregulation in waters of low to medium salinity. Whether this osmoregulatory competence, extends to continuously hyperosmotic environments is not known, but distributional data suggest that C. johnstoni in hyperosmotic conditions may require periodic access to hypoosmotic water. The study demonstrates a physiological capacity for colonisation of at least some estuarine waters by this normally stenohaline freshwater crocodilian

Molecular basis for DNA repair synthesis on short gaps by mycobacterial Primase-Polymerase C

Cells utilise specialized polymerases from the Primase-Polymerase (Prim-Pol) superfamily to maintain genome stability. Prim-Pol’s function in genome maintenance pathways including replication, repair and damage tolerance. Mycobacteria contain multiple Prim-Pols required for lesion repair, including Prim-PolC that performs short gap repair synthesis during excision repair. To understand the molecular basis of Prim-PolC’s gap recognition and synthesis activities, we elucidated crystal structures of pre- and post-catalytic complexes bound to gapped DNA substrates. These intermediates explain its binding preference for short gaps and reveal a distinctive modus operandi called Synthesis-dependent Template Displacement (STD). This mechanism enables Prim-PolC to couple primer extension with template base dislocation, ensuring that the unpaired templating bases in the gap are ushered into the active site in an ordered manner. Insights provided by these structures establishes the molecular basis of Prim-PolC’s gap recognition and extension activities, while also illuminating the mechanisms of primer extension utilised by closely related Prim-Pols

Conformational landscapes of DNA polymerase I and mutator derivatives establish fidelity checkpoints for nucleotide insertion

The fidelity of DNA polymerases depends on conformational changes that promote the rejection of incorrect nucleotides before phosphoryl transfer. Here, we combine single-molecule FRET with the use of DNA polymerase I and various fidelity mutants to highlight mechanisms by which active-site side chains influence the conformational transitions and free-energy landscape that underlie fidelity decisions in DNA synthesis. Ternary complexes of high fidelity derivatives with complementary dNTPs adopt mainly a fully closed conformation, whereas a conformation with a FRET value between those of open and closed is sparsely populated. This intermediate-FRET state, which we attribute to a partially closed conformation, is also predominant in ternary complexes with incorrect nucleotides and, strikingly, in most ternary complexes of low-fidelity derivatives for both correct and incorrect nucleotides. The mutator phenotype of the low-fidelity derivatives correlates well with reduced affinity for complementary dNTPs and highlights the partially closed conformation as a primary checkpoint for nucleotide selection

An AP Endonuclease 1–DNA Polymerase β Complex: Theoretical Prediction of Interacting Surfaces

Abasic (AP) sites in DNA arise through both endogenous and exogenous mechanisms. Since AP sites can prevent replication and transcription, the cell contains systems for their identification and repair. AP endonuclease (APEX1) cleaves the phosphodiester backbone 5′ to the AP site. The cleavage, a key step in the base excision repair pathway, is followed by nucleotide insertion and removal of the downstream deoxyribose moiety, performed most often by DNA polymerase beta (pol-β). While yeast two-hybrid studies and electrophoretic mobility shift assays provide evidence for interaction of APEX1 and pol-β, the specifics remain obscure. We describe a theoretical study designed to predict detailed interacting surfaces between APEX1 and pol-β based on published co-crystal structures of each enzyme bound to DNA. Several potentially interacting complexes were identified by sliding the protein molecules along DNA: two with pol-β located downstream of APEX1 (3′ to the damaged site) and three with pol-β located upstream of APEX1 (5′ to the damaged site). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, ensuring geometrical complementarity of interfaces, enabled us to predict interacting residues and calculate binding energies, which in two cases were sufficient (∼−10.0 kcal/mol) to form a stable complex and in one case a weakly interacting complex. Analysis of interface behavior during MD simulation and visual inspection of interfaces allowed us to conclude that complexes with pol-β at the 3′-side of APEX1 are those most likely to occur in vivo. Additional multiple sequence analyses of APEX1 and pol-β in related organisms identified a set of correlated mutations of specific residues at the predicted interfaces. Based on these results, we propose that pol-β in the open or closed conformation interacts and makes a stable interface with APEX1 bound to a cleaved abasic site on the 3′ side. The method described here can be used for analysis in any DNA-metabolizing pathway where weak interactions are the principal mode of cross-talk among participants and co-crystal structures of the individual components are available

Kinetic Pathway of Pyrophosphorolysis by a Retrotransposon Reverse Transcriptase

DNA and RNA polymerases use a common phosphoryl transfer mechanism for base addition that requires two or three acidic amino acid residues at their active sites. We previously showed, for the reverse transcriptase (RT) encoded by the yeast retrotransposon Ty1, that one of the three conserved active site aspartates (D211) can be substituted by asparagine and still retain in vitro polymerase activity, although in vivo transposition is lost. Transposition is partially restored by second site suppressor mutations in the RNAse H domain. The novel properties of this amino acid substitution led us to express the WT and D211N mutant enzymes, and study their pre-steady state kinetic parameters. We found that the kpol was reduced by a factor of 223 in the mutant, although the Kd for nucleotide binding was unaltered. Further, the mutant enzyme had a marked preference for Mn2+ over Mg2+. To better understand the functions of this residue within the Ty1 RT active site, we have now examined the in vitro properties of WT and D211N mutant Ty1 RTs in carrying out pyrophosphorolysis, the reverse reaction to polymerization, where pyrophosphate is the substrate and dNTPs are the product. We find that pyrophosphorolysis is efficient only when the base-paired primer template region is >14 bases, and that activity increases when the primer end is blunt-ended or recessed by only a few bases. Using pre-steady state kinetic analysis, we find that the rate of pyrophosphorolysis (kpyro) in the D211N mutant is nearly 320 fold lower than the WT enzyme, and that the mutant enzyme has an ∼170 fold lower apparent Kd for pyrophosphate. These findings indicate that subtle substrate differences can strongly affect the enzyme's ability to properly position the primer-end to carry out pyrophosphorolysis. Further the kinetic data suggests that the D211 residue has a role in pyrophosphate binding and release, which could affect polymerase translocation, and help explain the D211N mutant's transposition defect

The Base Excision Repair Pathway Is Required for Efficient Lentivirus Integration

An siRNA screen has identified several proteins throughout the base excision repair (BER) pathway of oxidative DNA damage as important for efficient HIV infection. The proteins identified included early repair factors such as the base damage recognition glycosylases OGG1 and MYH and the late repair factor POLß, implicating the entire BER pathway. Murine cells with deletions of the genes Ogg1, Myh, Neil1 and Polß recapitulate the defect of HIV infection in the absence of BER. Defective infection in the absence of BER proteins was also seen with the lentivirus FIV, but not the gammaretrovirus MMLV. BER proteins do not affect HIV infection through its accessory genes nor the central polypurine tract. HIV reverse transcription and nuclear entry appear unaffected by the absence of BER proteins. However, HIV integration to the host chromosome is reduced in the absence of BER proteins. Pre-integration complexes from BER deficient cell lines show reduced integration activity in vitro. Integration activity is restored by addition of recombinant BER protein POLß. Lentiviral infection and integration efficiency appears to depend on the presence of BER proteins

Silencing and Un-silencing of Tetracycline-Controlled Genes in Neurons

To identify the underlying reason for the controversial performance of tetracycline (Tet)-controlled regulated gene expression in mammalian neurons, we investigated each of the three components that comprise the Tet inducible systems, namely tetracyclines as inducers, tetracycline-transactivator (tTA) and reverse tTA (rtTA), and tTA-responsive promoters (Ptets). We have discovered that stably integrated Ptet becomes functionally silenced in the majority of neurons when it is inactive during development. Ptet silencing can be avoided when it is either not integrated in the genome or stably-integrated with basal activity. Moreover, long-term, high transactivator levels in neurons can often overcome integration-induced Ptet gene silencing, possibly by inducing promoter accessibility